In polls, what is a "likely voter"?

[murray hill farm]

how is that determined? Who determines it? What is it?

[ScreamingMeemie]

1. somebody who answers the phone.

:hi:

[murray hill farm]

3. hahahhaha! Well, i see that as a poll sub unit!

and it seems such an unlikely category to determine..ha! Guess it may be just another way to have a poll say what the poller wants the poll to reflect.

[realisticphish]

2. a "Republican"

who works on *'s staff (which makes him dropping in polls even MORE amusing)


:hippie: The Incorrigible Democrat

[tritsofme]

4. This is what Gallup says about their Likely Voter model

Gallup tries to avoid the lack-of-interest problem by specifying that 55% of its sample (which corresponds with a 55% projected turnout in the election) will be considered likely voters. Gallup asks each respondent seven LV screening questions, and gives each person an LV score of 0 to 7. The top 55% are classified as likely voters. This classification works even if interest is low early in the year, because low-interest respondents are considered likely voters as long as they are in the top 55% of the sample on the overall LV scale.

[SheilaT]

5. Having voted in a previous

election is a component in being a likely voter. Which means no first time voters are counted. I have no idea what percentage of voters are first timers in any election.

I have read that those who don't vote are substantially different from those who do: poorer and more likely to identify as Democrats.