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HELP!!! What's a realistic new voter %?

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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-14-04 09:40 AM
Original message
HELP!!! What's a realistic new voter %?
Can anyone help me figure out the percentage of new voters for this election? I would optimistically like to think that there is a 5-10% increase in the number of newly registered voters. It would make sense that at least 75% of those would be Bush haters.

I may be wrong, but I know at least three new voters for Kerry this time around. Those three have been of age for awhile and are now voting for the first time to get Bush out of office. I know many on here have mentioned the same thing.

Thoughts??
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BJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-14-04 09:45 AM
Response to Original message
1. None of this crap counts for anything...
...until November third! The only poll that counts is the election!

Take a pill.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-14-04 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. Where did I say anything about polls?
I was asking a question about best guesses for new voter turnout. Please read my post before responding.
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-14-04 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. There were only a couple of hundred thousand Millennials voting in 2000
This year 15 million Millennials (the new activist generation under 22 or so years) became eligible to vote. Millennials are 2 to 1 against Bush.

Figure 55% will register and vote this year, around 8 or nine million maybe.

Bush gets 3 million of those, Nader gets less than 5% of them, Kerry gets the rest. It works out to an extra 5 or 6 million currently hidden and not reflected in the polls voters for Kerry. Minus the young Millennial Bush voters and Kerry gets around 2 or 3 million more votes that Gore never got.

Now add the black registration drives and the Hispanic voter drives and you have a the largest amount of new voters for democrats ever!

2004 - The Year of the Democrat!
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-14-04 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Forgot to add
2008: 30 million GOP-hating Millennials eligible to vote

2012: 45 million GOP-hating Millennials eligible to vote

2016: 60 million GOP-hating Millennials eligible to vote

2020: 75 million GOP-hating Millennials eligible to vote

RESULT?

Because once a generation makes up its political mind, it never changes much until the day they die, this country is going to go so far to the left you won't recognize it--as long as we maintain our democracy...
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