Why this Obama skeptic is mildly optimistic

Reasons to be optimistic:

1. Even for those of us who found little to like about Obama's candidacy, it's always been clear that he's smart. I like that in a president.

2. He's surrounded himself with Clintonian technocrats, who just might know how to roll back the last eight years of madness

3. The mother of all crises may motivate him to make real change and may force the Blue Dogs and Repubs to support it

The bottom line: if Obama wants to be the next FDR, he can.

Reasons for that optimism to be mild:

1. Many in Obama's "movement" remain timid about pushing him to be more progressive than he's otherwise inclined to be (how much that is is subject to debate -- "he hasn't done anything yet" -- but there are countless signals that progressives have something close to zero leverage over him).

2. He's surrounded himself with Clintonian technocrats. Turns out those promises of radical change were as hokey as they sounded to some of us. We need -- and the times justify -- a far more dramatic leftward shift than Bill Clinton ever accomplished. And Hillary has yet to prove that she can be a firewall against prevailing hawkishness.

3. The post-partisan bullshit persists. Gay/women/atheist-bashing Rick Warren on the dais, all that "Team of Rivals" horseshit, etc. Maybe once Obama actually takes office, he'll start building the Democratic/liberal brand, but he's been loath to do it to this point. As with Bill Clinton, it's the "one good Democrat" who's afraid to dis Reaganite "values." We can and must do better, or the myths of GOP fiscal prudence, moral superiority, respect for law and order, and unquestionable patriotism will persist and will lead to more death, destruction, and injustice.

The bottom line: if Obama turns out not to be a major-league progressive, we're screwed.

Reasons to be scared shitless:

1. Reagan's chickens are coming home to roost. The rot oozing from the Beltway -- crappy politics and equally crappy media -- could be the death of us all unless the change is real, rapid, and rational.

The bottom line: if Obama turns out not to be a major-league progressive, we're screwed.