it simply is not an 11 point race. It just isn't.

[umtalal]

September 10, 2004

from the Arab American Institute
53 Days until Election Day 2004!

Watch the Bouncing Polls
President George W. Bush started the week with two highly publicized polls (Time and Newsweek) giving him a double-digit lead over Senator John Kerry. This, in turn, lead to hand wringing amongst Democrats, celebration amongst Republicans, and a public left wondering if it's all over. Polling creates perception, perception creates reality. But isn't it too soon to say it's over? True, conventional wisdom holds that the candidate leading on Labor Day wins in November, but never before has a party convention been held so close to the traditional end-of-summer holiday. By changing the timetable, the Bush campaign has also changed the assumptions we can make about who leads when. Also, it's always a good idea to scour the methodology of polls to see if there are any indicators as to why the numbers are what they are. For example, as pollster John Zogby noted recently in the Financial Times, the Newsweek sample of registered voters includes 38% Republicans and 31% Democrats, while the last three last presidential elections have shown a much more even breakdown, giving the president an advantage. Clearly President Bush is riding high, but as Zogby writes, "with all that said, it simply is not an 11 point race. It just isn't."

[In Truth We Trust]

1. To thy own self be true; f**k the polls and anyone else that tries to

make you vote based on bandwagon sheep mentalities

[umtalal]

2. I am voting for Kerry. win or lose he is my choice.

[Guaranteed]

3. We all know that.

On edit: I'm sorry for being short here, but I keep seeing our people deny things, out of the blue, that obviously aren't true.

It's very, very clear that Bush doesn't have an 11 point lead. So, let's drop it.

[shockingelk]

4. FOX poll says it's a 4 point race n/t

[Protected]

5. I don't like polls

I think most polls are simply being used to sway public opinion. So many sheeple out there want to be with a winner. I definitely think this was going on during the Democratic Primaries and Kerry's VP selection process.