was that she would get the lion's share of the delegates there (and in Ny, NJ, and MA). From the rules* a candidate who gets less than 15% gets no delegates. Getting even close to 100% does not seem possible unless you speculate that he was counting on a far better get out the vote effort than the opponents. In all four states, HRC had nearly the entire established Democratic party behind her. In August or October 2007, Obama was basically at 20% and all other opponents below 15%. Had that percent held, given the fact that they had most of the experienced political operatives, there actually was a remote chance that turnout could have pushed her high enough that all the opponents could have fallen below 15% in all of the districts - resulting in her getting an overwhelming proportion of the delegates.
Now, the election was not in August or October 2007, it was in February 2008. Even by December 2007, Obama had risen to 22% and Hillary Clinton fell substantially - though most appeared to go to increasing the undecided. This rise likely would have led to Obama being above the limit in far more districts. (For poll numbers, go to page 2 -
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls226... ) In the January 2008 poll, Obama was up even more to 27% - this was polled January 14 - 20. After the Iowa win, NH loss and the Kerry endorsement, but before the NV, the SC win and the Kennedy endorsement. (side note - this also shows you what JRE was looking at - he was not getting any delegates here and the other big states looked similar) By the election day, Obama was ahead in some polls -
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/... . - but lost by about 10%.
The fact is that the shift from December to February was HUGE - I think the shift in what the expected delegates would have been was even larger. That shift reduced the net gain in terms of delegates in all the big primary states that day to an amount where Obama's larger delegate numbers from the caucuses left them in a near tie. The problem for HRC, was that there entire plan was based on a huge SuperTuesday lead. I doubt Penn didn't understand the rules, just that their early plan counted on getting a far greater percent of the delegates than they did.
*Here's the rule they were running under:
"PROPORTIONAL PRIMARY
Seeing the WINNER-TAKE-ALL primary as unfairly reducing the input of significant minority factions within the party in the presidential nominating process, the McGovern-Fraser reforms of the early-to-mid 1970's successfully promoted the so-called "PROPORTIONAL" type of primary as an alternative to be used in the Democratic Party's nomination process. In the PROPORTIONAL type of presidential preference primary, the district delegates are apportioned among the top vote-getters in each (usually congressional, but occasionally state legislative) district while the at-large delegates are apportioned among the top vote-getters statewide by the percentage of the vote received above a certain threshold (most often 15 percent: a figure actually mandated by the rules of the Democratic Party since 1992). This is the system used by the vast majority of the states holding presidential primaries in the Democratic Party; the Republican party (where WINNER-TAKE-ALL primaries are still permitted) uses it in far fewer states than the Democrats and, in the vast majority of these, the GOP usually started using the PROPORTIONAL type only because Democrat-dominated State Legislatures of the mid-to-late 1970's passed laws forcing both parties to use this type of presidential preference primary. The major difference between the two parties' PROPORTIONAL primaries is in the thresholds used by the Republicans, which can vary from as much as 20 percent or more to as little as virtually 0 percent. (as noted below, the Democrats are currently required by party rules to use a 15 percent threshold in all their PROPORTIONAL primaries).
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Definitions.html#Prop