Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 273 Bush 233

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 273 Bush 233



Sept. 11 New polls: IN KS KY MO PA

[Apple Smoothie]

1. Yay!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

3. Welcome to DU, Apple Smoothie!

I'm glad to see my state, VA, is 'barely Bush'! There's hope!

[johnnyrocket]

6. Kerry winning VA would be HUGE!

But my gut tells me, the Old Dominion is red through and through, depends on how many Northern Virginians come out. It's still a looong shot.

[Scairp]

7. I think winning Ohio would be bigger

If he were to win Ohio, I think the election would be a lock for him.

[Zynx]

2. If one applies the state poll numbers to the number of voters in each

state, the race is tied at about 46.6% a piece. If you throw in undecideds at a rate that favors the challenger as usually happens, It is 50.7% for Kerry and 49.3% for Bush. If you assume 600 were polled per state you get a sample size of 30,000 which has a margin of error of under .6%.

[Chichiri]

4. It's good news, but that white Florida makes me nervous . . . (n/t)

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

5. I know. Me, too. OH and PA, too.

[johnnyrocket]

8. All the talk about a blowout ( one way or the other )

just doesn't seem possible, its another 2000 election in the works. I predict Kerry wins: FL, CO.

Ohio is an enigma, what's up with those fools! The hardest hit by Bush's policies, and they want more!?!?

Maybe they'll get a clue by November.

[papau]

9. Wash Post disagrees

Are only 10 states still "competitive states" (as suggested by Wash Post)


Does DU agree with Dan Balz of the Washington Post that only 10 states are still "competitive states"

Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire, with West Virginia and Nevada major, major challenges for Kerry - more so than the other 8.

Are the other 11 "battleground states" really leaning too far to be called "competitive, because - per Baltz- we have -7 Leaning toward Bush which are: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia - with 4 leaning toward Kerry which are: Maine, Michigan, Oregon and Washington.

And of the 10 that are still "competitive", the Bush team will be putting major money to win into Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, while they view Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as states they can make Kerry work very hard to defend, and see West Virginia and Nevada as quite likely to go their way.

Is it really down to a huge effort to fight the above battle, while the winner of 2 out 3 of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio wins the election?