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Will the Democrats be able to hold the gains they have made?

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olegramps Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 06:53 AM
Original message
Will the Democrats be able to hold the gains they have made?
I am curious as to what people on this board, who appear to be far more knowledgeable than I, think about the future of the Democratic Party.

Could it be that the dissatisfaction with the Bush administration coupled with the economic collapse only gave the Democrats a temporary boost? It also appears that Republicans didn't show up at the polls or have they actually lost a substantial number of their members.

Has the dramatic changes in regard to the electorate, such as percent of minorities, eduction levels, more young voters, trends toward Independent, etc. provided the Democrats a decided and permanent advantage?
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bowens43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 07:12 AM
Response to Original message
1. I don't know
I've misplaced my crystal ball.......
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last1standing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. The answer to your question depends on two things; Competence and Education.
First, if the Obama administration is competent and able to work with Congress to pull us out of this recession then he will at least get four more years with a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress. If the Congressional Dems become flush with their new found power and start infighting over petty advancement or become embroiled in scandals then the Congress will swing. If Obama is seen to stumble or move too far to the right, the Presidency will also swing to the repubs.

Second, if Obama and Congress make all the right moves, the party in control will also likely swing to the repubs unless the Dems can do something they've never seemed to have an interest in doing before - educating the voters on exactly how raising the poorest among us raises the standard of living for the middle class. The repubs have their sales patter down - they tell the people that every job or college seat 'given' to an African-American or a Latino-American is a job lost for a European-American (i.e. 'real American). Obviously, this isn't true but it has worked for generations. Democrats need to focus much more energy into explaining exactly HOW our policies benefit the non-hyphenated American populace.

Some will say that with changing demographics that the repub party is going the way of the dodo. Myself, I think they will work harder to latch onto the Hispanic vote by pitching even further to the right pushing for a 'Christian' state. This could possibly attract enough Latino and African-American voters to take back some seats and the presidency unless we are able to educate the populace.

Make no mistake about it, though. The GOP is turning into the Grand Christian Party even as we speak. They are pushing out the fiscal conservatives and wooing the knuckle draggers who want nothing more than to force us all to worship their God. Sadly, as we've seen in California, this tactic will play to the fundamentalist minorities just as well as to the fundamentalist whites.
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olegramps Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #2
10. Thanks for all of your input
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TommyO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 07:15 AM
Response to Original message
3. Give me two years and I'll let you know.
Quite frankly, we need to get the new congress and president sworn in and get them working on the problems that the Bush regime has forced on this country before we can even begin to know if we can hold the gains.
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tedoll78 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
4. Not sure.
It's by no means perfect, but I did take a glance at which states we won this and by how much. Even if the margin between the Dem & GOP tickets were to narrow by 7 or 8% in every state in the next election, we'd still win in the Electoral College. The Kerry/Gore States, Colorado, and Nevada all look pretty solid blue, which puts us over 270EVs easily.. but we can't take them for granted.

Still, it's a great starting point for any electoral strategy in the future.
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AndyA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 07:20 AM
Response to Original message
5. The Democrats must frame our current situation properly, and hang it around the Republican's necks.
They cannot allow the economic crisis to become a Democratic problem.

The Dems must make sure everyone understands that this is the result of FAILED GOP POLICIES.

The Dems must make sure everyone understands that the HUGE DEFICIT is due to RUNAWAY SPENDING by the GOP, wasteful no-bid contracts, and a very expensive war the WAS BASED ON LIES told to us by Bushco.

Americans must be reminded that the pain they're feeling today is due to the abuse and misuse of authority of the Bush Administration for the last 8 years.

The Republicans will attempt to hang these problems on the Democrats, and the Democrats simply cannot allow them do get away with it.
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cooolandrew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. I think it's exactly how Hartmann calls it, how much pressure we all apply especially the newly >
Edited on Tue Nov-11-08 09:05 AM by cooolandrew
engaged voters. Push,push, push and then vote. The left and right will now get it we're watching and modify their behavior appropriately.
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 07:21 AM
Response to Original message
6. Seems a lot depends on the next 20 months or so, doesn't it?
The first test you are looking for will be the off-year elections in 2010. If the Congress has been a part of moving the economy forward there is a good chance the D's will hold their gains.

The problem, of course, is that the economic mess hasn't even reached the bottom. Even if Obama goes big and pushess major government spending thru congress to create jobs--it will take at least a year to begin to show results. Whether or not the economic turn around makes its debut before the mid-term elections is pretty hard to predict at this point.





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old mark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
7. Democrats have a well deserved reputation for
dragging each other down over seemingly minor points of doctrine. Sometimes for no reason at all.
I am amazed we got together enough to get such a huge majority in this election.
However, the GOP at this time is in the worst shape I have ever seen it in my 61 years. They have NO popular figure to pull them out ot their hole, they have NO real ideology and NO policy. They have LESS THAN NO moral ground. They are reduced to a group of crazies and stupids, all blaming each other and committing the party to more of the same.

If the Democrats ever had a time to continue to make gains, it is now. Fortunately, we have a very intelligent and able leader who can push us in the right direction.


mark
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iamahaingttta Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 08:12 AM
Response to Original message
8. We might want to let them get inaugurated first...
...and let them, you know, do at least a little work first, before asking that question.
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mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 08:13 AM
Response to Original message
9. Not if they don't deliver change.
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cooolandrew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 08:58 AM
Response to Original message
11. I think they only ever lost any seats in the past due to apathy and a reaction to NAFTA. >
Edited on Tue Nov-11-08 09:01 AM by cooolandrew
When liberals are mobilized and engaged it's inevitable gains will be made in 2010. This is where media has miguided the population for many years.
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Juche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-08 08:59 AM
Response to Original message
12. Its possible
For one thing the electorate is changing rapidly. We are fast becoming a more urban, more diverse nation full of young and unmarried people. These demographics lean democratic. Unmarried women for example now make up 26% of the electorate, vote democratic 2-1 and are supposedly the fastest growing demographic in the nation.

Latinos are growing rapidly. At the same time older white voters are dying off and being replaced by young voters who are socially and economically liberal.

So to me it seems that if the GOP remains a party people are terrified of for the next 4 years at least (which they will because the people who truly run the GOP want to go further right) then by 5+ years from now demographics wlll have shifted even further to the left.

Basically my point is that even if the GOP does eventually figure out how to come across as more moderate down the road it may be too late by then because our country will have changed demographically, making it doubly hard for the GOP to regain power. The GOP has alienated women, unmarried people, young people, educated people, non whites, non christians, GLBTs, etc. And these groups are all growing while our nation steadily becomes more secular, non-traditional and more non-white which bodes poorly for the GOP which is based on married, white christians.
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