The Daily Widget – Final Results Thread 2008

[phrigndumass]

FINAL RESULTS FOR 2008*
(*As of November 8, 2008)


Almost all of the results are in, and as projected, Barack Obama and Joe Biden won the presidential election in a landslide! So, how did we do this year with all our projections?

Overall, Obama performed better on average than our final projected spreads by state by a very tiny margin of 0.1%. We were high on some spreads and low on others, but on average we were right on the nose … not too liberal and not too conservative.

We projected 378 electoral votes for Obama and 160 electoral votes for John McCain, but the actual result is 365 for Obama and 173 for McCain, just 13 electoral votes off. We picked Missouri and North Dakota to tip to Obama but they both went to McCain. And Obama picked up one electoral vote from Nebraska, which we didn’t project.

Our popular vote projection for Obama was 52.4%, just 0.2 percentage points shy of his actual 52.6%. We had McCain projected at 45.4% of the popular vote and third party candidates projected at 2.2%, but third party candidates didn’t fare so well this year (1.3%), giving McCain an extra boost of 0.7% in the popular vote (46.1%). We projected a spread of 7.0 points in the popular vote, a little higher than the actual 6.5 point spread.

One item from our projections rang true, and we weren’t surprised: When a candidate is leading by greater than 5 points in a presidential election and maintains that lead, s/he tends to win the electoral vote by about a 40-point spread (see graph below). The actual electoral vote spread was Obama +35.6%, a result very close to similar presidential election cycles in the past (see the yellow data points below).





Minority voters and younger voters all saw increased turnout rates this year, while voters over age 65 seem to have had a lower turnout rate. According to exit polls, Barack Obama won every age group except senior citizens, tied among male voters and won handily among female voters. Overall turnout by voting age population, though, was just slightly above 2004 levels (70%, or 125 million) and nowhere near the projected 140 million votes. This slight increase could easily have been drawn from population growth alone.

The map below from the New York Times shows how Barack Obama performed county-by-county as compared to John Kerry four years ago … a sea of blue everywhere except mainly in the Appalachian region and bible belt, and a testament to the success of the 50-state strategy.






COMPARISON TO PROJECTIONS, As Of November 8, 2008


See the Final Projections Thread













TRACKING GRAPHS






























SWING STATE GRAPHS































































DEMOGRAPHIC GRAPHS



















































LINKS AND SOURCES


See the Final Projections Thread

Browse Past Editions of The Daily Widget, Back to March, 2008

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


.

[rosesaylavee]

1. Excellent!

I hope you are prepared to come back when Missouri is tipped back to blue? Do you happen to know or can you guesstimate when that will happen? Do you think this coming week or before Thanksgiving?

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks, rose :)

I thought Missouri had been called for McCain? At least two sources have done so, anyway. But I hope you're right that it hasn't been called yet! I think there's only a 5,600 vote difference between Obama and McCain, or about 0.2%.

I'd like to see my projection closer to the actual, lol

Good morning!

[fight4my3sons]

2. Good morning, phrigndumass!

We have missed you!

[phrigndumass]

5. There you are :)

Hope Lil Math Dude enjoys the graphs

Good morning!

[fight4my3sons]

7. Yes he does :)

Don't forget to keep sending him some. He's been making his own graphs at home lately.

[phrigndumass]

8. I'll be happy to

Now that I'm rested, lol

[PermanentRevolution]

3. Wow, those graphs for the 60+ age groups were off, weren't they?

Especially 60-64. That looks like the only demographic where the results were vastly different from the tracking polls.

Is the Bradley effect real, but limited to the over-60 crowd?

[phrigndumass]

6. Lower turnout among older voters, and possibly the Bradley effect

You may be right about that. Interesting!

[SallyMander]

9. Wow -- what the heck happened in NV???

Thanks for all your hard work this election season!!!

[phrigndumass]

10. Nevada and New Mexico both went strong for Obama :)

Amazing support for Obama among Latino voters in those two states, as well as Colorado.

Thanks, Sally!

[grantcart]

11. Outstanding results

Just for the record how many votes would have had to be changed in MO and ND for the Widget to have been 100% correct on EVs?


And, without doing a lot of work, is there any way to compare the daily widget to 538 and similar projection models?


As you know there are many conspiracy theories that suggest that there is mass ballot miscounting because of touch screen voting. While I would never personally trust one of those machines and always vote absentee to make sure there is a paper trail, is there any evidence or do you have any opinion on the question of systemic election fraud?


Highly professional, greatly admired, and deeply appreciative of all of the hours you saved us from trying to seperate myth from reality.

[phrigndumass]

13. Thank you :)

Missouri needed half of the 5,600 vote difference to tip to Obama, so 2,800 votes. Missouri went to McCain by 0.2%. I was waaay off for North Dakota, lol ... It looked close but McCain won by 8 points.




Here is a comparison to 538.com and electoral-vote.com ...




The jury is still out on any election fraud, particularly in Alaska (and maybe Georgia?) ... I haven't noticed anything big yet, but I'll post about it if I do. McCain really didn't gain much over what was projected for him, and most of that gain came from lower vote percentages for third party candidates.

[Two Sheds]

12. k&r

good stuff

[KnaveRupe]

14. A HUGE "thank you" to Phrig!!

Your diligent work throughout the course of the election was indispensable.

Kudos to you for some of the consistently best analysis anywhere on the intertubes.


Just as an aside, you wouldn't happen to do sports handicapping, would you?

[phrigndumass]

15. yw, KnaveRupe :)

I've enjoyed every minute of it this year, particularly the interaction with other DUers

Now that the election is over, I'm all about the NFL, lol! Every statistician I know has at least one sport they're committed to, perhaps obsessively, and the NFL is mine.

[Lochloosa]

16. It's amazing how few states Obama carried that were even close.

[phrigndumass]

19. Weird how polarizing this election was ...

Really only one-fourth of the states were "in play" and the remaining 75% of the states went strong for one candidate or the other. Obama's Strong count was 258, just 12 shy of 270.

Maybe that's the by-product of going negative?

[tekisui]

17. What a beuatiful turning of the tides.

I almost got a little weeping looking at the tracking graphs. They had become a part of my morning routine.



Thank you for all the hard and consistent work, phrign! Your Widget gave me the ability to speak confidently about this election with others. Be well!

[phrigndumass]

20. The New York Times map is my favorite

There are so many good things that can be seen in that map

Thanks, tek!

[Kind of Blue]

18. Bravo! No words can say how thankful I've been for your weekly roundup.

It's exactly why I joined, clear and to the point, no messing around no matter what the outcome.

[phrigndumass]

21. How nice! :)

Thanks for your kind words, tcdq, and for reading along ... I hope you will stick around and enjoy what DU has to offer!

[BumRushDaShow]

22. Bravo!

And thanks for that summary!

[phrigndumass]

27. Thanks, Bum :)

[davepdx]

23. I really appreciate the work you've done.

The data you supplied was very interesting and added more depth to my understanding in this very exciting election. Much appreciated.

[phrigndumass]

28. Thank you, dave :)

It has definitely been a give and take experience for me ... I've learned from other DUers as well, and you have all helped add more insight into this election for me.

[JeffR]

24. Can't thank you enough for all your hard work

You've done so much to keep us all grounded and clear-eyed throughout the election, no matter how high the emotions, no matter how huge the stakes, no matter how difficult the struggle between hope and worry.

[phrigndumass]

30. Barack Obama made it easy :)

And Howard Dean, of course. Excellent strategy, excellent results.

Thank you, Jeff!

[Danger Mouse]

25. You've done very well. You're the lion of GD:P.

Thank you for all of your hard work.
Looks like you were right on the money, too.

[phrigndumass]

32. Thanks, EH ... not too far off :)

Of course, I look at the results with a skeptical viewpoint ... hoping to do better next time

I've thoroughly enjoyed it!

[changemonger]

26. Good work

I thought you were beeing too optimistic , but you surely did as good or even better than most EV projections .

Your "Daily Widget" will become a must-read for me in future election cycles.

[phrigndumass]

34. Thanks, changemonger ... Welcome to DU!

I thought I was on the optimistic side as well ... but then again my preliminary assumptions were optimistic, thanks to the Obama campaign for making that possible!

[jefferson_dem]

29. Awesome.

Thanks for this post and all others, phrig. I always learn from your offerings.

Question: Was turnout among 18-29 year olds really significantly different than in 2004? I think they accounted for 18% of the electorate this season and 17% last. Honestly, this was a bit of a let-down. We are grading on a curve since turnout in 2004 among young voters was up substantially from 2000 but still...I was hoping for a tidal wave of enthused Mellenials. That being said, the fact that they went for Obama 2:1 signals good times ahead for the Party.

African-Americans were 13% in 2008 as compared to 11% in 2004. That's promising.

Also, check out the partisan split! Dems were +7 over Reps (39/32) at the polls. If I'm not mistaken, this is the largest Dem advantage since 1980. I like.

[phrigndumass]

36. Love it! :)

Everything you mentioned is spot on! Small but significant increases among minority voters and young voters, yet fewer voters over age 65. The +7 party ID was the most significant data point this year. I guess we can thank W for that, lol

[crossroads]

31. Excellent! Thank you... k&r

[No Elephants]

33. Thank you for this and for your pre-election posts. They were encouraging when I was down.

[phrigndumass]

39. Encouraging to me as well :)

Thanks, No Elephants!

[mvd]

35. Hi phrigndumass!

My EV projection happened to be like yours. I consider myself in good company! I wonder what happened in ND? McCain won it easily.

[phrigndumass]

37. :)

Strange, isn't it? I thought North Dakota would tip to Obama before Montana would, but Montana was closer (-2.5%) than North Dakota (-8%). I was counting on North Dakota's proximity to Minnesota. And South Dakota (-9%) had similar results to North Dakota, although SD is usually much redder.

It's possible that the Dakotas are moderately conservative by nature and they liked what they saw in John McCain this year. But we did make progress all across Big Sky country this year! Let's hope Obama wins there in 2012

[Demeter]

38. Thanks for an Outstanding Series, P-Man!

You kept a lot of people sane, including my voice teacher, who was reassured by your accounting of the electorate.

I still think it should have been 400. Well, maybe for the second term! It seems like there were a lot of fence-sitting undecideds who stuck with the same old, same old. Next time, 60% popular vote! Gotta have a dream.

Can you address the Senate elections, or is that beyond your data base?

[phrigndumass]

40. yw, Demeter :)

The Senate and House races were "beyond my pay scale" lol ... I would trust DailyKos and FiveThirtyEight.com the most for that info.

Bill Clinton performed better in his second election than his first, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama perform better in 2012!

Strange thought: At what point do we begin saying "Twenty twelve" instead of "Two thousand twelve" for the years this century? I've never been a fan of saying "Two thousand ..." when I refer to a year in this century, but I've followed the crowd for the first decade at least. I started saying "Twenty ten" in a budget meeting a couple weeks ago and someone said it sounded strange to them

[Demeter]

41. Don't Know--I'm Still Stuck in the 20th Century, Myself

I have a hard time writing the year. It's always 1976 to me.


Found you a little tidbit!

RAW DATA....Via Steve Benen, Steve Waldman says that Obama has shrunk the God gap:

Obama got 43% of weekly church-goers vs. 55% for McCain. In 2004, Bush got 61% vs. 39% for Kerry. What this means is that Bush beat Kerry by roughly 27 million among weekly churchgoers, and McCain beat Obama by only 15 million — a stunning 12 million person shift.

Hold on a second. I made a pain in the ass of myself over this subject in 2004, and I'm going to do the same thing this year.

First things first. In 2004, Kerry lost to Bush nationwide by 2.4 percentage points. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 6.3 percentage points. That's a swing of about 9 points nationwide, which means that any group that also swung by 9 points in Obama's favor was doing nothing except following the national trend.

So how about those churchgoers? They went from -22 for Kerry to -12 for Obama. That's a swing of ten points, almost identical to the nationwide swing in Obama's favor. Weekly churchgoers just didn't do anything unusual, which means there's no reason to think that Obama did anything special to appeal to them. More than likely, they voted for him in larger numbers this year for the same reason as everyone else: they were tired of Bush, tired of Republicans, and trusted Obama more in tough economic times. There's really no justification for a special narrative to explain those 12 million extra voters.

But as long as we're on the subject, which groups did Obama do especially well with? That is, which groups did he swing by margins substantially more than 9 points? Based on the 2004 and 2008 exit polls, here are the groups that swung in disproportionate numbers this year:


Income $200,000 or more (+34)


First-time voters (+33)


No high school (+27)


Latinos (+27)


18-29 year olds (+25)


Under $15,000 (+21)


Full-time workers (+19)


Urban (+19)


Non-gun owners (+18)


Non-religious (+16)


Parents with children under 18 (+16)


The swing in first-time voters (which overlaps heavily with 18-29 year olds) and Latinos was especially stunning. Also worth noting, just because they're such obvious swing groups, are Obama's large gains among moderates (+12) and the unmarried (+14).

And which groups did Obama do substantially worse with than his overall national trend? Here they are:


Gay/lesbian (-11)


Last minute voters (-8)


Union members (0)


"Other" religions (0)


Gun owners (+2)


White women (+4)


45-59 year olds (+4)


Gays and last-minute deciders are the only groups where Obama performed worse than Kerry. The other five are groups where he did better than Kerry, but not by as much as he did with the country as a whole.

I don't have any special narratives or analysis to offer for any of this. Maybe later. For now, it's just raw data for your noodling pleasure.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2008/11/raw_data....

[phrigndumass]

49. Very interesting!

"The God Gap"

I wonder if Last Minute Voters were swayed by Bob Barr telling everyone to vote for McCain instead of him to keep Obama from winning?

Love those tidbits!

[dbmk]

42. Nice work and result phrig

I had 364 in the DU contest, btw.
Missouri and Indiana flipped though. Can still kill myself for not going for the Nebraska EV as I was contemplating. That would have been a nice touch.

So, where are you going to apply all this capability next? Or is the widget business being put on hold for 3-4 years?

[phrigndumass]

50. Only one EV off for you!

I'm so not surprised

I didn't project the Nebraska EV either ... I thought the Omaha suburbs would make it a wash. But it turns out that the turnout increase in urban areas was much larger than the turnout increase in suburbs, and Obama performed very well in the suburbs, too. Good for Obama!

The Widget will be on hiatus until 2010

It's NFL season!

[myrna minx]

43. I'm REALLY late to this party. (I couldn't find my other shoe.)

What an amazing journey this has been. You're going to have to post charts and graphs of just random stuff for those of us who were addicted to your daily threads. I can't go cold turkey. Thanks again for everything dear.

After all of your hard work, it's time you lay a spell.

[phrigndumass]

51. After laying a spell, I found your other shoe!

It was tucked inside the cushion, lol ... can I keep it as a souvenir?

[myrna minx]

55. Absolutely!

But it may be sticky. I think I drank champagne out of it on election night. I don't remember. Hey, did you, by any chance find my keys?

[Curtland1015]

44. Fantastic as always. Thanks for everything!

You rock!

[Tansy_Gold]

45. THANK YOU! THANK YOU!

Dear Phrig --

Thank you so very very much for all the work you put into this, every day and every week and every hour while we all sweated bullets right to the last minute. Ah, if only I had put more faith in you I might not have lost so damn much sleep the two weeks before the election!

I'm never going to be a statistician or a pollster, but I think I'm a better PERSON for having absorbed a little bit of knowledge from reading your posts.

Now go out and have a couple virtual beers -- on me!


You rock, my friend, you truly rock.


Tansy Gold

[phrigndumass]

52. Aw, thanks TG :)

Many people thought my projections were a bit too optimistic this year, and even I worried a little about that. But I started with optimistic assumptions and it took time for the pollsters to catch up, lol

I drink your virtual beer!

[gademocrat7]

46. Kudos. Mr. P.

Thank you for the final Widget. I loved the New York Times map. We will turn GA all blue yet. I truly appreciate your insight during this election. Back to nursing duties..the Frazier pup got to come home last night with ten different meds to administer over the next two weeks.

[phrigndumass]

53. So happy your little Frazier pup will be okay!

We'll win Georgia in 2012, fingers crossed!

[ColbertWatcher]

47. Amazing work! Thank you for posting! n/t

[Egnever]

48. Thats awesome!

Thanks so much for sharing this stuff here throughout this election cycle it has been fascinating to watch.

[Smuckies]

54. Thanks

Thank you very much