Question to hardcore political-science geeks....

[drumwolf]

Is McCain completely flying in the face of history by trying for an 11-hour upset? Or would there any kind of precedent for a McCain upset if, God forbid, it happened?

I'd say McCain's chances of winning are probably about 1% at most, but that's still one percentage point too many. I will not rest until he has conceded.

[Secret_Society]

1. I believe so

In 1948, for instance, polling was stopped about two weeks before the election so any movement was not detected.

[drumwolf]

2. please clarify "I believe so"

"I believe so" as in "I believe McCain is flying in the face of history?" Or as in, "I believe there is a precedent to a potential McCain shocker upset"?

[SteppingRazor]

3. Dewey "defeats" Truman, 1948.

In that race, Truman's victory was, in my opinion, even more of an upset than a McCain victory over Obama would be. The Democratic Party had fractured into three pieces (the Democrats, the Progressives and the Southern Democrats), Truman was fairly unpopular, and the Democrats had already won four presidential elections in a row under the leadership of FDR. The fact that he won still boggles the mind.