Anyone concerned about the latest Rasmussen polls?

[woolldog]

specifically, OH, VA, NC, and FL? Any thoughts on this last round of polls?

Don't call me a concern troll please. Thanks.

[billyoc]

1. No, noone.

[Zynx]

2. Not really. VA's fine there anyway.

[regnaD kciN]

23. And Rasumssen's state polls tend to tilt Republican...

[woolldog]

25. really?

I know that's said a lot. But weren't his numbers dead on in 2004?

[d_b]

3. nope.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Not Remotely

The pop vote lead is going to push many close states to 0bama, the absurd suggestion that the margin is coming exclusively from reliably blue states notwithstanding....

[ROh70]

5. Okay, I won't call you a concern troll, even though I would like to call you a concern troll.

But, I will respect your wishes and not refer to you as a concern troll.

[cliffordu]

6. Nope. it's all about GOTV. Those who vote now win.

[Trajan]

7. Forget all that ....

NM ... CO ... PA ....

ALL those states: FL NC OH VA .... ALL can be lost, and Obama STILL wins ....

[woolldog]

9. I know.

But I want him to win those states so I don't gnaw off all my fingernails tonight while waiting to see what happens.

[Roland99]

15. NM and CO alone won't be enough. Need at least IA or VA/NC or something.

[Trajan]

51. Iowa is WAY in the Obama column ....

Iowa has been STRONG Obama for many months now .... Why would you even consider it an open state ? .. It is SOLID BLUE on all electoral maps ...

OK ... Since you insist:

ALL Obama needs is:

MN, ME, VT, NH, CT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MA, MD, PA, WI, MI, IL, IA, CO, NM, MN, WA, OR, CA, and DC.

There ..... Do you see any openings there ? ..... PLEASE feel free to show which of those other states are in doubt for Obama ....

ALL we needed to flip from 2004 is CO and NM .... Among other possibilities ....

[grantcart]

8. Oh by the way Rasmussen US poll + 3 today now 50-43

[krawhitham]

10. no, we win without OH, VA, NC, and FL

[woolldog]

12. See my post #9

[book_worm]

11. because it's too late to be worried about polls. It's election day--the real polls will soon be

open.

[woolldog]

14. Grrrr

why is it so close? :argh:

[writes3000]

16. Because you're only super-focused on the close polls. What you feed grows.

You look for close polls. You'll find them and they will then loom large in your mind.

[woolldog]

36. I didn't go looking for close polls.

I wanted to see the last batch of Rasmussen polls and they happened to be a lot closer than I expected. McCain has closed a lot of distance fast.

[Zynx]

45. No. He closed a short distance in one week through statistical variation.

[HughMoran]

13. They look perfectly fine - for Rasmussen polls

We'll do fine

[woolldog]

18. is there a better pollster?

Rasmussen is the gold standard of polling.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. By whose standards?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. How Is He The Gold Standard?

He doesn't poll cell phone users...He has a relatively short history and small body of work compared to a Gallup or even Zogby...

[nsd]

17. No.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. You worry too much.

Obama will easily take Virginia, win Ohio by a decent margin and then take Florida.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Notice the hysterical predicament this forum is facing

The instinct, and conventional wisdom, and overwhelming tendency of posters here is to herald state polls and dismiss national polls.

But on election eve the national polls look better for Obama than the state polls. Hence a thread like this is greeted with caution, almost silence.

If the dynamic were reversed, and the state polls shouted higher margins than the national polls, we'd have literally hundreds of posters exclaiming to ignore the stupid and irrelevant national polls. :rofl:

[writes3000]

22. Actually, I see the something else happening.

I see people taking in all of the signs and trends across the board. So instead of getting hyper focused on one poll or two polls, they are looking at the big picture from several different angles.

Early voting stats, pundits, national polls, state polls, betting sites, etc.

You always do alot of point and laughing about how others aren't as smart as you. Tonight, I really don't see the reason why.

[woolldog]

24. the national polls have always been irrelevant to me,

except as a general indication of the mood of the race.

The nightmare scenario is that Obama comes very close in ALL of the battleground states (VA, OH, NC, FL etc), yet still loses them, just barely. That's how you lose electorally, yet win the popular vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Who Is The Last Candidate To Win The Pop Vote By Double Digits And Lose The Electoral College?

~

[woolldog]

28. The polls are showing about a 7 point victory.

Not a double digit one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Who Is The Last Candidate To Win The Pop Vote By Seven Points And Lose The Electoral College?

~

[writes3000]

30. Who was the last Candidate to win a 7 percent popular vote victory but lose the Electoral Vote?

Can you name one?

[woolldog]

34. Rutherford B. Hayes lost the pop vote by 4 percent I think.

and won the electoral vote.

There's no law of nature that says this couldn't be the first time in history that it happens. McCain could get 0 votes in CA, NY, WA, OR and still win the electoral college and lose the popular vote big time. Popular vote means nothing as an indicator when the electoral count is on such a tightrope.

If Obama were pulling 60% then yeah I'd agree. But 7% is a different story.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Are You Comparing This To An Election 132 Years Ago ?

Where we will never know the true results from Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina because Tilden was a Democrat ( remember they were the secessionist party back then) and Hayes was a Republican (remember they were the unionist party) and those states were occupied by federal troops...


And the margin was three percent...

[Zynx]

47. You just proved you don't know what you are talking about.

[Zynx]

46. There are a lot of polls that show 9 and two that show 11.

[dennis4868]

27. REMEMBER....

PA + CO = OABAMA WINS (assuming that Obama wins IA, NM and the Kerry states)

OH, VA, NC, FL, etc....is just icing on the cake...fuck the icing...just give me my cake....

[woolldog]

31. Then it will be a very very long election night....

if he can't snag OH or VA or NC or FL or GA.

[dennis4868]

32. we waited 8 years...

we can wait a few hours longer tonight for OBAMA TO BE NAMED PRESIDENT ELECT OF THE USA.....

[writes3000]

33. Because that's the scenario that all the pollsters are predicting, right?

Honestly, you're acting like the definition of the thing you don't want to be called. Really.

[woolldog]

37. So it's not ok to articulate legitimate concerns?

I think my concerns are legitimate. There's been a significant narrowing of the race in the battleground states. What is going on here?

[dennis4868]

39. you have a right to articulate your concerns...

probably today is not the best day to do that here...people here are on the edge after 8 years of hell....yesterday was about concerns...today is about winning (PA + CO = OBAMA WIN)....don't worry so much about the icing on the cake states....McCain needs to sweep most of those those states (in addition to stealing PA).....very unlikely this will happen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Nate Has Run The Numbers 50,000,000 Times And He Gives McCain A 1.9% Chance Of Winning

~

[dennis4868]

41. if only Nate's computer...

got to choose the next president...:-)

[Jennicut]

44. Please, I beg of you to look at the RCP averages, not one poll.

RCP was very accurate in 2004. Obama has a plus 4 at RCP for VA, plus 5 for CO, and plus 7 for NM. That is all he needs to win plus PA which is plus 7. I am sorry if it will be a long night but we do not need FL or NC. Even Ohio at RCP is plus 3. Plus these are FOX/Razz polls, doesn't that indicate anything to you?

[Trajan]

52. What is REALLY cool ...

IS you will be here in either case, yucking it up ....

How nice .... :puke:

[gmudem]

42. Not really.

Those states are all expected to be close, and I like the VA numbers.

[bowens43]

43. I don't think anyone is concerned. Are you? nt

[Every Man A King]

48. We need exactly ZERO of those states to win n/t

[Name removed]

49. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MarthaMyDear]

50. NO

[Bleacher Creature]

53. No, they are one day polls taken on a Sunday.

Lots of red flags. Plus, Rasmussen has a 2-3 point "house effect" in favor or Republicans. Finally, even if we lose the states these polls has us behind in, we still get to 270.

[iceman66]

54. Obama still wins based on those polls

I'm more worried about long lines in Democratic precincts. No matter what the polls say, we will lose if the lines discourage enough Obama supporters from voting!