Polls, Schmolls... You wanna know who's gonna win tomorrow? Listen to THESE guys;

[The Doctor.]

Political gambling an old tradition

British queue up in droves to wager $8 million on U.S. elections

By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:02 AM ET 11/3/08

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Wonder if the world is really paying attention to the U.S. presidential election? Look no further than Britain's betting parlors.

The U.K. gambling industry is expected to rake in around 5 million pounds ($8.1 million) in bets tied to the 2008 U.S. elections, said Robin Hutchison, a spokesman for Ladbrokes (UK:LAD) , Britain's largest gambling firm. That's more than double the amount wagered in 2004.

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Going into Tuesday's election, Republican John McCain is much more of a longshot than was famed orator Bryan.

Ladbrokes was offering odds of 13-2 on a McCain victory. A win by Democrat Barack Obama offers a meager payoff, with the Illinois senator a 1-in-12 favorite. In other words, a gambler would have to bet 12 pounds on Obama to win one pound if the Democrat is the victor.

Meanwhile, political futures markets, which have a strong track record in recent elections, also cast Obama as the heavy favorite. See full story.

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?tmn_id=%7B854A7F18-F329-48B6-A420-0BD0B1B2903E%7D

Odds (and bettors) are on electoral favorites

Not believing the polls? Check out the call made by political-futures markets

By William Spain, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:15 PM ET 11/2/08

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- If you want to pooh-pooh the pundits and polls and get the real scoop on the likely outcome of Tuesday's presidential election, it's worth taking a look at what political-futures markets -- or even Britain's myriad bookmakers -- are saying about the best shot at calling the winner.

From online "predictive markets" like Intrade or the Iowa Electronic Markets to the betting parlors of London, traders and odds makers alike have compiled astonishingly accurate records of predicting outcomes in U.S. elections, from the presidential race all the way down to the state contests.

And business is brisk.

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"In the 2004 elections, our market closing prices accurately predicted the outcomes in all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia," he said. "And in 2006, we got all the Senate races right."

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?tmn_id={AEB95A43-490C-4AE9-B1BB-510C2BB21FFB}


If you're still skeptical, then you don't understand how these people make odds.

Just like any market-driven (rather than politically driven) core index, the oddsmakers would lose their shirts if they didn't account for everything. Like the insurance companies that have been taking Anthropogenic Global Warming seriously for years in their calculations, the London Oddsmakers don't miss a trick... literally.

In the 2004 'election', these guys not only knew who Kenneth Blackwell was, what part he played in disfranchising millions of voters, and what he would do to keep things under wraps before the election, they had full topographical satellite imaging of his stool samples on file while they were extrapolating the odds.

To put it more succinctly; They follow the fraud at all levels, they know who is manipulating what and where, and just how much influence the media exerts.

And they've been doing it for a loooooooong time.


So maybe I'm just looking to quell a little anxiety tonight, because if the paranoid, reactive, warmonging, ignorant, sports-fan-mentality, witch-hunting, zenophobic, jingoistic, low-information, belligerent, ignorant sector of this otherwise great nation get their way, we're all screwed for another four years at least....

Or maybe the dawn is breaking, and the real meteorologists are telling the story rather than the TV preachers with hypertrophic popliteal cysts.

Either way, get out to the polls and put this one solidly away... the oddsmakers of London are counting on you!