What to watch for on election night, by Nate Silver

[SallyMander]

Great article summarizing when polls close and how the night might unfold...

7 PM EST. Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire.

Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory. As Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia, what we're really looking for is a quick call on anything before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in McCain's favor.

Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there's one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it's in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004. These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus.

On the other hand, if there is any state where the polls might overestimate Obama's numbers, it's in New Hampshire, where nearly the entirely electorate is white and where Obama was famously upset by Hillary Clinton during the primaries. If McCain holds Obama to within about five points in New Hampshire—closer than any current polls—we may need to be worried about some sort of Bradley Effect.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167186


Edit to add a few paragraphs.

[nini]

1. I like his point about prop 8 out here in Calif

Let's hope enough repubs stay home to beat this thing.

[SallyMander]

3. That would be great

I am sure hoping that one goes down in flames... :grr:

[hvn_nbr_2]

10. Didn't the article have the logic backwards on prop. 8?

He said that it aims to "protect" the right of same-sex marriage and that an Obama landslide might discourage conservatives from bothering to show up to vote against it.

[BrklynLiberal]

2. Thanks. I printed that out and will use it for reference...

[Schulzz]

4. Thanks. Bookmarked this for tomorrow. nt

[geekgrrl]

5. thanks-- this makes me feel even better!! :)

[AZBlue]

6. I am surprised Arizona isn't mentioned.

I know it's only 10 electoral, but it is McCain's state and an upset would be pretty astonishing (and is now possible).

[SallyMander]

8. That would be amaaazing!

Go AZ go!!! :D

[KittyWampus]

7. There is no such thing as a "Bradley Effect". It's entirely a fiction. It's bogus. It's got no data

behind it.

[DiverDave]

9. Good read

the interest in down ticket races has not been covered much, and not much here, either, but some.
Coattails for the house and Senate races will help get the legislative agenda done, barring some trick by the minority ( sure feels good to say THAT lol) but if the republicans REALLY want to help get the country back on track, they,hopefully, will work across the isle to do that.
But, as we saw in the '90's, that may not happen.
A majority in both houses would be great, and what we need to clean up the mess left by dimbulb and his minions.

Kicked and Rec'ed for a good read.

[SallyMander]

11. Kick cuz this is handy

:hi:

[calimary]

12. Truly.

I wanna keep track of this one.

[DeepModem Mom]

13. K&R