NC is what you would call a true TOSS UP

[Thrill]

Public Policy Polling (Raleigh): Barack Obama 50, John McCain 49 (10/31-11/02; 2,100 likely voters, 2.1% margin of error

Zogby: McCain 49, Obama 48 (10/30-11/02; 600 LV; 4.1 MOE)

Mason-Dixon: McCain 49, Obama 46 (10/29-10/30; 625 LV; 4.0 MOE)

Research 2000: Obama 47, McCain 45 (10/28-30; 600 LV, 4.0 MOE)

Insider Advantage: McCain 48, Obama 48 (10/29; 641 LV; 3.7 MOE)

Civitas (Raleigh): Obama 47, McCain 46 (10/27-29; 600 LV; 4.2 MOE)

CNN/Time: Obama 52, McCain 46 (10/23-28; 667 LV; 4.0 MOE)


I think the Register and vote the same day has already put McCain in a huge hole though

[Zynx]

1. Exactly. Some showing Obama up slightly. Some down. That's a flip a coin state.

[rdublue]

2. NC had a slight edge for Obama through the weekend

Now it looks to be tied. I wonder what came into play. I'm not sure I know how 'they' figure that out. I really want NC to tip to Obama, well, tip isn't the right word, more like landslide over to Obama.

[supernova]

3. Same day register and vote has been a huge success

It doesn't give the GOP time to nit pick the lists about frivolous "concerns."

[mckara]

4. GOTV

Make sure our friends in North Carolina get everyone out to the polls tomorrow!

[kenny blankenship]

7. Every Democrat with access to the media today should be standing on their chairs

screaming GOTV. If there is one pitfall in front of us it's that people may think Obama already has this won and their vote doesn't matter- so they don't vote tomorrow.

GOTV will be the difference in toss up states and in close Senate races.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. Yep, NC, IN, MO, ND, and MT are "toss ups"

Everything else they're nit-picking are either lean Obama (OH, FL) or solidly Obama (CO, IA, PA, VA).

These nitwits don't understand that a lead outside the MOE on the day before an election is pretty much game-over.

[riqster]

6. Toss-up States are the most at risk for election fraud

...so GOTV! Big turnouts make it harder for Reeps to steal elections.

[rucky]

10. Democratic governor.

we have that going for us in NC.

not sure about the SOS, though.

[riqster]

11. A good thing, but remember

...the government has outsourced most of the nuts & bolts of our elections to the private sector for quite some years now, so we can't count on even the best SOS to keep fraud in check.

Turnout that is above projections is a very good way to beat most vote-rigging algorithms, as it does not depend on the BOEs or SOS to catch any anomolies.

[stillcool]

16. you use paper as well..

which is way better than those states that can't conduct a recount ...

http://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&ec=allall&year=2008&state=North%20Carolina

[abburdlen]

8. PPP was pretty close during the primary

they had Obama 53 to Clinton's 43 for the NC primary. Obama ended up out preforming by 3%
I think PPP will be as near this time around with Obama winning by 2% to 3%

[GreenInNC]

9. 2.5 million already voted here, 0.5 million more Dems

0.5 million more Dems than Repubs have voted so far.

[Hawkowl]

12. Toss ups are won with Turnout

Typically toss ups are won with whomever has the best ground game. Of course voter suppression will play a big part in the actual margin of victory.

[ncgrits]

13. 50% chance of rain in much of NC on Tuesday may actually work in our favor. . .

I don't think a little rain will discourage the enthusiastic Obama supporter, especially young voters. But those glum old McCain voters may pull up to the polling place, see a line standing in the drizzle, say f*ck it and go home.

[GreenInNC]

14. bingo!

[knowledgeispwr]

15. Perhaps, but the storm system will be heaviest in the East, which is better overall for Obama

than the West is.

Hopefully Obama supporters are out in force no matter what the weather is.

[mmonk]

17. Obama's strength was understimated in the polls down the stretch

in the primaries. The fact the Civitas poll (which is a conservative political group) has Obama ahead should make one take notice.

[GreenInNC]

18. Election protection for North Carolina

You can go to Democracy NC's webpage: http://www.democracy-nc.org/ for information and phone numbers for tomorrow.