The final Gallup Poll puts Obama in a commanding position heading into tomorrow.

[aaaaaa5a]

The numbers below represent the final Gallup tracking poll Presidential numbers compared to the candidate's actual vote percentage for every Presidential election since 1960.


Despite criticism that polls don't matter, you can see that Gallup has a history of being very accurate when predicting voting outcomes.


This is why the ending daily Gallup tracking poll is the most important National number. It also further legitimizes Obama's advantage. Looking at Gallops past history, Obama's chances are excellent.


The first number is the final Gallup number for the election. The second number is the candidates actual vote percentage. The last number is the deviance. Again, note the reasonable accuracy of the final Gallup poll. No wonder the Obama campaign is so confident. The numbers are in our favor but there is still lots of work to be done!





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2008............................. There are two numbers from Gallup for Obama/McCain because while I am 99% sure the final numbers of the other Presidential races are Gallup's tracking poll number and not their final USA Today/Gallup survey number, I can't be 100% sure. However regardless of what number used for Obama, he looks really good for an historic win.

OBAMA
53/55...........................GALLUP
???.............................VOTE%
???............................ DIFFERENCE


MCCAIN
42/43............................ GALLUP
???.............................. VOTE
???.............................. DIFFERENCE
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2004
Bush
49.0..... Gallup
51.0..... Vote %
+2.0..... Difference

Kerry
49.0…. Gallup
48.0…. Vote %
-1.0…. Difference
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2000............. This is the only final Gallup Tracking poll number that had the popular vote winner incorrect. Al thought the final leader in the Gallup tracking polls was still elected of office.

Bush
48.0.... Gallup
47.9.... Vote %
-0.1.... Difference

Gore
46.0…. Gallup
48.4…. Vote%
+2.4…. Difference

Nader
4.0…. Gallup
2.7…. Vote %
-1.3…. Difference
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1996
Clinton
52.0.... Gallup
50.1.... Vote %
-1.9.... Difference

Dole
41.0…. Gallup
41.4…. Vote %
+0.4… Difference

Perot
7.0…. Gallup
8.5…. Vote %
+1.5…. Difference
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1992
Clinton
49.0.... Gallup
43.3.... Vote %
-5.7...... Very interesting, it looks like despite popular wisdom, Perot took more votes from Clinton than he did Bush!

Bush
37.0… Gallup
37.7…. Vote%
+0.7…. Difference

Perot
14.0… Gallup
19.0…. Vote %
+5.0…. Difference
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1988
Bush
56.0.... Gallup
53.0.... Vote %
-2.1.... Difference

Dukakis
44.0… Gallup
46.1…. Vote%
+2.1…. Difference
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1984......................... You can't get more accurate than this final Presidential poll!
Reagan
59.0.... Gallup
59.2.... vote%
+0.2.... Difference

Mondale
41.0…. Gallup
40.8…. Vote %
-0.2…. Difference
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1980.................................. There has been a lot on this message board about the Carter/Reagan 10 point swing in 1980. However when you look at Gallup's final poll number for the race, they had Reagan ahead. And they only missed his actual vote % by a 3.8% difference.


Reagan
47.0.... Gallup
50.8.... Vote %
+3.8.... Difference

Carter
44.0…. Gallup
41.0…. Vote%
-3.0…. Difference

Anderson
8.0…. Gallup
6.6…. Vote%
-1.4….. Difference

Other
1.0…. Gallup
1.6…. Vote%
+0.6….. Difference
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1976
Carter
48.0.... Gallup
50.1.... Vote %
+2.1.... Difference

Ford
49.0… Gallup
48.1…. Vote%
-0.9… Difference

McCarthy
2.0… Gallup
0.9… Vote %
-1.1…. Difference

Other
1.0… Gallup
0.9…. Vote%
-0.1…. Difference
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1972
Nixon
62.0... Gallup
61.8.... Vote %
+0.2.... Difference

McGovern
38.0... Gallup
38.2... VOte %
-0.2... Difference
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1968
Nixon
43.0.... Gallup
43.5.... Vote %
-0.5.... Difference

Humphrey
42.0... Gallup
42.9... Vote %
-0.9... Difference

Wallace
15.0... Gallup
13.6... Vote %
+1.4... Difference
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1964
Johnson
64.0.... Gallup
61.3.... Vote %
+2.7.... Difference

Goldwater
36.0... Gallup
38.7... Vote %
-2.7... Difference
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1960
Kennedy
51.0.... Gallup
50.1.... Vote %
+0.9.... Difference

Nixon
49.0... Gallup
49.9... Vote %
-0.9... Difference
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Since 1960, the worse deviance fort the final Gallup tracking poll was just 5.7 points. (Clinton 1992) However, that was a strange dynamic because there was a legitimate 3-way race. (although 1980 and 1996 saw respectable 3rd party candidates)And Gallup still predicted the correct popular vote winner in the race.

[GoesTo11]

1. Where does this year rank?

Bigger leads: Johnson-Goldwater, Nixon-McGovern, Reagan-Mondale.

About the same: Clinton-Dole, Bush-Dukakis

Tighter races: Kennedy-Nixon, Nixon-Humphrey, Carter-Ford, Reagan-Carter, Bush-Gore, Bush-Kerry

I'd settle for a victory of the "about the same" level.

[aaaaaa5a]

2. I agree 100%

This is looking like a Bush/Dukakis, Clinton/Dole election final. And that would be great to me!