My guess for Rasmussen today: O52, M45

[scheming daemons]

Every tracker has moved in Obama's direction the past 24 hours.


Every single poll except for IBD/TIPP has Obama over 50%.


The undecideds are starting to break toward an Obama landslide.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[Hansel]

1. Undecideds at this point are just waiting to see which way the wind

blows. At least that is what 2 election historians were saying a couple of weeks ago on CNN. They said as you get closer to the elections the undecideds will break toward the candidate who is ahead just because they want to say they voted for the person who won.

Sounds like they are really 'band-wagoners', not undecideds.

[stoge18]

2. Solid guess.

I'm with you. Likely a 6-7 point lead with Obama at 51 or 52.

[blueclown]

3. It's Obama 52, McCain 46

Obama gains a point in the tracker.

[Schulzz]

4. I don't know Rasmussen has changed party ID breakdown again yesterday.

Old: Dem 40,0 Rep 32,8
New: Dem 39.9 Rep 33,4

So I don't expect movement in our favor.

[Schulzz]

5. Ok, you would have been right without the ID change, but Obama still gained one point. nt