Georgia's Early voting -- Three times 2004 2 million have voted 35% AA

[grantcart]

Based on standard support percentages by demographic group it would mean that Senator Obama will need only to get a ridiculously low 27% of the White vote to take Georgia. Georgia could be the biggest surprise on 11/4.


The incredible turnout in Georgia has continued and the percentage of AA voting has maintained a steady 35%.


Here are the numbers:


2004 Total Votes 3,317,336 Early Voting 20.2%

2008 Early voting total 1,994,990 (60% of the total for 2004)

Race
White 60.2%
Black 35.1%
Other/Unk 2.2%

Sex
Men 40.4%
Women 56.2%
Unk 0.9%
Ballot

Absentee 11.1%
In-person 88.9

[Zynx]

1. I calculated he can do it with just 25% of the White vote assuming he gets 95% of the Black vote.

I don't think that's unreasonable.

[grantcart]

2. I agree but I also think that the AA % cannot hold on election day -

so many have already voted that its a diminished group to get to the polls on Tuesday.

[Zynx]

3. Fair enough. However, only about 2/3 of the Fulton and De Kalb 2004 vote is in

so far and those are the heavily black counties. It may drop to 33% of the total vote on Tuesday, but it won't drop tremendously. Even with 25% of the White vote, 65% of the Hispanic and Asian vote, and the Black vote only being 33% of the total, I still put Obama at 49.7%. He would win.

[cliffordu]

4. I posted the pony thing. You haven't helped at all. So I won't kick this.....