The Daily Widget - Final Projections for the 2008 Election

Here it is, hot off the presses: The final projections from The Daily Widget's forecasting model for Tuesday. President-Elect Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

Electoral Votes:
Barack Obama - 378
John McCain - 160

Popular Vote:
Barack Obama - 74.1 million (+9.8 million)
John McCain - 64.3 million
Third Party - 3.1 million


Close races going to Obama:
Florida (27)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)
Ohio (20)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)

Close races going to McCain:
Arizona (10)
Georgia (15)
Montana (3)
West Virginia (5)
















- Phrig

There's no stopping us now.

sing it, everybody,

Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IojL1-1CTcc

Not this time.

I like the way that map looks

If it turns out that way, boy that would be great.

Thank you!!!

yw, Smuckies

You're screwed.

K'd and R'd.

All you need to know.

Thanks for the Widget.

And I have to add that I hope you're wrong about Georgia. Yes we can (well, maybe, just maybe we can).

Tried to keep the personal bias out of the numbers, though. Thanks, Jeff!

Link:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com /


I also have to disagree with you on another point: "you are all the best!" No, dear phrig, YOU are the best!

At least we know Obama's numbers can't go much below 344, then!

based on letters to the editor, volunteerism, attendance at rallies, etc. The latest local poll I saw showed McCain by 11, but with Obama steadily pulling in more of the independent votes. Alaska could surprise people.

It'll be interesting to see how Obama does better than this!

Looking good!

are being accused of being Marxists, I suggest we take a page from the Soviet Union. In that vein I nominate you for the Hero Of Democratic Underground Award. All kidding aside your posts talked me down often this year. Well done.

Thank you for your kind words, chieftain

Truly an honor the P-Man has earned. He can hang it next to that Pollitzer Prize!

I'm looking forward to spending more time in your Weekend Economists threads when this is all said and done

number crunching doesn't help.

You will always have my humble appreciation and respect.

Thanks!

Thanks for all of the hard work you put into this.

This looks like a best-case scenario.

Hope it's right.

Geez..if I could get thru one day at DU without TX being written off as a place that will stay "red" til the end of time....if you think about it, having NC and Arizona all up for grabs would have been thought of as being a "little too optimistic" up til, what, a week ago?

So the Obama states that are most vulnerable are ND, IN and MO (in order of likelihood). Yummy~!

But the registrations increased by bigger percentages in the metropolitan areas in Missouri and Indiana, tipping it to Obama. North Dakota was up percentage-wise overall for registrations.

LOTS of Obama voters, including many, many retirees. (Take that, TV pundits!)

I think MO is going blue this year.

It's been a pleasure reading your daily math analyses thru this year, phrig. What a wild ride it's been.

Thanks for working in Missouri for Obama. We were down in SE MO last weekend knocking on doors, and I also talked to many older Obama supporters. Hope!

You've been reading along since the very beginning, I remember! Thank you for your many replies this year. We numbers-minded folks need to stick together

especially the graph showing Obama compared to Kerry (helped to calm me down lol).

The Kerry comparison helped ease my nerves, too

Final results of 2004 Election, from Electoral-Vote.com:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/dec/dec31.html

Let's hold off and hope for this but work hard against the nightmare senario of a McCain squeeker!

I am very grateful for all the hard work you put into The Daily Widget and The Math. Still wish Georgia would turn blue.

I'd love to add 15 more for Obama, lol

Last one, eh? Looks great to me.

Okay, blue world, suspended in black, here... we... come...



Pic courtesy of jason.berlin

Last post before the elections, yes ... but I'll post the final results probably next weekend.

"Final Projections" those two words give me mixed emotions

I'm going to miss your dailies and weeklies. Those projections are awesome. I'm going to print them for election night.

Thanks so much for all you've done.

Thanks for reading these many months! I have mixed emotions as well

I've much enjoyed your beautiful tables, graphs, and charts.

I want to once more go on record with my totally intuitive, out of thin air, prediction in May that Obama will win 40 states. I won't mind being wrong if you are right.

--IMM

Thanks, IMM

What a joy to wake up and find your thread every day



I think the Obama numbers will be very close.


I think that the McCain numbers will fade as people decided its not worth the hassle.


Be sure and bring this back afterwards and do a comparison.

I'll definitely do a comparison after I get some sleeeeeeep this week!

You and dbmk deserve a lot of the credit as well.

Only thing left is hoping that McCains potential voters sees this as well and stays home, so there will be some extra states, senators and representatives on the side.

Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota will depend a great deal on that, I think. That will make the difference on whether we talk 330ish or 380-390ish.
That or when Obamas GOTV proves to be as excellent as everything else he has done. Not quite sure the polls would be prepared for that.

Anyways, the joy has surely been on my side too, if not more. I came here to find like minds on political issues. Sharing the love of numbers has been a pleasant bonus.

Thank you so much for your programming skills, dbmk! The Wigand Assistant(tm) has been very easy to work with, and has made posting these threads quicker and more accurate.



Here's hoping what you said will come to pass in IN, MO and ND, and possibly GA, etc.

I wish you'd have posted your trend line graph. It was amazing watching how your line correctly rose and then fell slightly right at the end -- in line with predictions. You've performed some outstanding analysis.

As I said in another post -- I'll stick by the Huffington model on Yahoo: Kerry + IA, VA, OH, NM, CO. I really hope that you're correct and that Ariana and I are wrong.

I'll have a few threads with all the post-election result graphs after a couple days of rest, including all the final updated Daily Widget graphs.

Even the Huffington model would be a great result!

K&R

Thanks again.

Thanks for reading along!

Whenever I need to know where my man was in this past couple months, I sought out your posts.

The math tells the story, and if everyone understood it as well as you, we could all have saved a few blood pressure points.

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

The math surely tells the story, both what we see and what we don't see, and it also helps us understand strategy. Happy to share this with you!

As I wrote to Phrig in a PM, my brain sees polls that are so good, that I should have no reason to beleive anything else than that it is in the bag.

My heart seems to disagree though.

There are so many factors the polls might not have caught this time. Mostly in Obamas favour though. But I know how much of polling is based on assumptions of the poller - that are not necessarily biased or deliberately overconfident either way. But they CAN be wrong.

But this wrong? Hardly. But tell that to my heart.

And on another note, I saw a quote from a Danish musician today, on the question of what he would expect/hope Obama would do:

"He will make soul the prosperity of the western world."

(or spirit depending on how you translate it)

My heart is telling me that we have lived in fear long enough, and I hope the majority will agree on Tuesday

Why is Obama only up in Iowa by 15 points??



I think this looks great! I would love to see Arizona flip blue this election. Who knows?

sane during these long months. YOU are the best.

Thanks for spreading some of that love in my direction

And don't forget the bubbly and bon bons ...

It's a unseasonably warm Autumn day in Minneapolis, so I'm going to go outside and bag up some leaves and enjoy the afternoon outside and not bleary eyed and hunched over my computer, like I have been for months. What's this "fresh air" I've heard so much about? I think I've read about it on Talking Points Memo or something.

My bubbly is on ice and the bon bons have a come hither siren call, but I will resist until Tuesday. You get first pick.

Enjoy your warm day in the fresh air! I'll look for you on election night.

I appreciated all the work you did to get this information to us. You joined me for breakfast a LOT this last few months!!

Thanks for having coffee with me on many mornings!

Thanks for posting these threads this election season. Gobama!

yw, mvd

378 EVs

And here I thought my model was more optimistic than most, lol ... I should learn to stop doubting it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Sorry it's late.

I really believe the economy will drive the Undecideds this year. And now you have provided visual proof!

I've appreciated it very much.

Happy to share it. Thanks!

They just can't work up the enthusiasm to stick them on their cars. WOW

for keeping me and others sane .

It kept me sane, too

I knew that you could.

Thanks for all of the hard work in putting this together. It's been a great resource for tracking the election, and I really appreciate the continuous improvement process you used.

This was the last projection I made a while back, based mostly on your data:



I moved Maine to all Obama a few days later, but never bothered to make a new map. My final guess was 376 EV's Obama.

You may be right! I would not be surprised either way

It has been fun for me to tweak graphs and improve on the posts as we went along, drop some things that didn't work and add some more things that I found out were needed along the way. Thanks, Greyskye, for following along these many months!

Thank you! This is amazing.

Don't forget to send those occasional graphs to LMD.

You and Lil Math Dude have given me so many ideas this year, and you've reminded me in a very inspiring way how to teach others

You will both surely get PM's from me a lot!

but otherwise we agree.

as we enter the home stretch.

Spread the word. It becomes much harder to steal the election when it's clear we're supposed to win, and if it is stolen, evidence like this makes the theft all-the-more obvious (and, thus, easier to fight).

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.



-Laelth

Thanks, Laelth

and hopefully the most accurate.

Thanks for putting these threads together - they've been quite interesting.

Thanks, D23

I just hope your wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Sweet Revenge!

Again, Thanks Phrig

Happy to do it, DBD

Thank you for reading along!

I thoroughly enjoyed following your numbers. Cheers - and here's to a happy Election Day!

Thank you for reading along!

Thanks for getting us through it, phrign!



My notebooks are littered with 6 column charts going back two months! Be well, get ready to party!

needed inspiration for today's walk about the neighborhoods!!

Thanks phrign!

I need to print these for reference. I've always worried that you were a little optimistic/biased (for obvious reasons), I'll be hoping that your projection is 100% accurate though!!

K&R!

Most of my initial assumptions were optimistic, especially for high turnout among minority voters, and that's why my calculations always seemed a bit high this year. Pollsters didn't seem to catch on to this until people started early voting

Thanks!

Thank you so much for all you've done to get me through this election. GOBAMA, GOBAMA, GOBAMA. Now get me through the horrible loss of GBP. they COULD have won that game.

Great game! They should have a better-than-average year, possibly 9-7 or 10-6.

Good morning!

but man, the final widget.

Sad for the widget, happy for Obama

If I ever get to your neck of the woods, I'll buy you a few beers.

I'm nervous about Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina. It would be very sweet to win those three. Feeling like North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia, Montana and West Virginia are a real long shot.

Either way I'll be screaming my bloody lungs out Wednesday morning here in Seoul. Oh is my cat going to hate me!

Thanks for reading along

Hey, won't you have the election results about 16 hours before we do? lol ... Seoul is something like 16 hours in the future!

Assuming all goes as it should, let me offer you this virtual toast!

Thanks, jake!

I hope to hell you are right on man.

Not nervous about Obama winning, just whether my model was a bit on the optimistic side this year

Fingers crossed!

There are three VERY close races in phrigs lineup, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota - that phrig has blue.
I would not put too much blame on the widget if they do not come true. 349 will do almost as fine.

Again, because my last post didn't register on MyDU?

I want to come back to this on Tuesday night.

Thanks for all the work, phrign! Take care and party like we took back our country tomorrow!

It's been fun!

I'm really going to miss the daily routine.

Once the polls are all entered (Wednesday?), I'll send you the spreadsheet for your course. Feel free to ask me anything

Thanks for all your work, Phrig.

Thanks!

Surprised me, too, lol

I have looked forward to your daily updates for quite some time. Thank you, thank you, thank you for all of your hard work and analysis that you have provided to our community during this time. The contributions you have made here have been invaluable, and you are very much appreciated.

Thank you!

And here's one for the road...

You're very welcome. What a nice thing to say!

Thanks for reading along!

So cold, so dark, so widget-less!



"Ode To a Daily Widget"

O widget, lovely widget,
with graphs and colors bright,
now that you have gone away
DU seems dark as night

How can I live without you, widget?
Whatever shall I do?
I'll wait for 2012, I guess,
When next I'll be with you...



Thanks for all the hard work, phrig! The Daily Widget has been a great resource in this long battle.

yw, PR

Now I am hopeful these poll numbers reflect the real numbers tomorrow! Thanks for all your work here. I was a daily reader.

Thanks for reading along these many months

thousands of people.

I wouldn't go that high, lol, but thanks!

Hope I'm in the ballpark