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So tell me about these Mason-Dixon polls? They have always shown

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INdemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 08:22 AM
Original message
So tell me about these Mason-Dixon polls? They have always shown
Mccain is closer state by state than any of the other polls. 'So is this a right leaning pollster?
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 08:24 AM
Response to Original message
1. It Has A Republican Bias
I don't think it's deliberate...They just tend to give a high estimate of Republicant participatio...
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INdemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Since I posted this I did some research and they use much smaller samplings
and in almost all polls ...yes they are Republican bias ..probably the reason Brokaw used these polls to prop up Mccain on Meet the Press
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:07 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. The Reason he used the polls is because they are NBC/mason dixon polls
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:35 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. I couldn't find 2004 Mason-Dixon national polls. I think it may do ONLY the Battleground States? nt
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:39 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. Yes. They are using a much higher R/D pct than what all other pollsters are using.
The McCain campaign is using probably an even higher pct which is why they keep saying many states are closer than the polls show.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
4. Here are the Mason-Dixon 10/29/2004 results on Bush vs. Kerry:
Edited on Sun Nov-02-08 09:34 AM by indie_ana_500
If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:
FL AR CO OH IA MI MO NH NV WV OR PA WI MN NM

Kerry-Edwards 45 43 43 46 44 47 44 47 44 43 50 48 48 47 45
Bush-Cheney 49 51 50 48 49 45 49 46 50 51 44 46 46 48 49
Others 1 N/A 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 N/A 1 N/A 1 1 1
Undecided 5 6 5 5 7 6 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 4 5

Final results:

FL bush...3,964,522 Kerry...3,583,544
AR bush...573,182 kerry...470,230
CO BUSH...1,101,255 KERRY...1,001,732
OH BUSH...2,858,727 KERRY...2,739,952

(I'll stop here...I couldn't find the state-by-state % results, only these actual vote numbers. And it was taking waaaaay too long to cut and paste them.)
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Thanks. So they over-favored Bush by a few points. No surprise there.
Just add 1 to two points on a Mason-Dixon poll.
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:38 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Yes, we actually won NM and they had Bush 4 points ahead
They are even less accurate this election IMO.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:39 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. Uh, Bush won NM.
Unless you're talking about something else.
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. I mean IN REALITY - yes, Bush won officially
If you read Armed Madhouse by Greg Palast, we for sure won there (and maybe in OH, though he is more convinced than I am.)
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:42 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Yeah Bush won but by a few thousand votes. So Mason-Dixon over favored him.
It was 376,930 Bush and 370,942 Kerry.
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Yep, even with the official result, they were off
But we really did win due to bad machines placed in Native and Hispanic areas of the state, resulting in a lot of no votes for President that made absolutely no sense.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. Do you have a link to the total final results for those battleground states? I
couldn't find one.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #6
14. I don't know what the avg of the final results for THOSE states was in 2004, but * won 48.4% or ...
something like that, nationally.

But that's not applicable to the MD poll, since that poll is certain battleground states only. I doubt any of us knows the avg of the THOSE particular battleground states' final results. That's why I was trying to post them, but it was taking too long. I have to go to work today!
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ShadowLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 09:49 AM
Response to Original message
12. Of all their polls released today only 1 sounded reasonable to me
I think it was their Florida poll, that was the only one that sounded reasonable to me when compared to other polls showing Florida tightening. The rest of the polls though seem to favor McCain by 3 or 4 percent compared to other polls.
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