Saturday Morning Data Dump – 11/1 – Tightening: Men Tip to McCain; Seniors Tied

[phrigndumass]

(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 7.0%, or 51.1% to 44.1% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 6.1% for Obama (down from 7.0% last week). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 6.2% for Obama (down from 6.6% last week), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 6.5% (down from 7.1% last week) nationwide.

As the National Poll Widget below shows, Obama’s nationwide lead is +7.8% on average, or 0.8 points above what the state polls show for the popular vote (Obama +7.0%, see blue widget above). The daily tracking poll average lead of Obama +6.6% is more similar to the lead Obama is seeing in the state polls than the non-daily national poll lead of Obama +8.4.





The widget below is a quick summary of where all the demographics currently stand. The graphs following show these statistics over time.







GENDER CROSSTABS













ETHNICITY CROSSTABS















AGE CROSSTABS






































.

[goclark]

1. Thanks as always, should I take a pill

to calm my nerves?

You know how I get --- :scared:

[phrigndumass]

3. yw, goclark :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

We are on our way to a win on Tuesday! :D

[Kukesa]

12. "on our way to a win" -- those are beautiful words! Thanx. nt

[grantcart]

20. here is your pill to calm your nerves

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7691313&mesg_id=7691313

[Kukesa]

28. And that's an easy one to swallow. nt

[Sebass1271]

2. McPOW is leading

in the white category????

i had hoped for better results in this category.. : (((

[goclark]

5. Same question here

How will that play into the overall election results? :scared:

[phrigndumass]

6. Democratic Presidential candidates never lead among white voters

The best they can hope for is around 40% ... Obama's portion of the white demographic are actually higher than Kerry's and Gore's, around 42%. Voters from other ethnic groups will easily put Obama over the top, because Obama is garnering the support of around 95% of African American voters and about 62% of Latino voters.

:D

[Demeter]

11. Hence the Frantic Voter Suppression Attempts

If I were in the GOP, I'd have to seriously rethink its reason for existing....

[Lochloosa]

29. I think the Latino vote will be the key.

[goclark]

32. Thanks you saved me from taking a sleeping pill

:smile:

[jefferson_dem]

4. Thanks phrigndumass!

Great work! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Thanks jd :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[CADEMOCRAT7]

8. Thank you Mr. P ! I can go make pancakes now. Obama has it handled.

Thank you for this !!! Obama is up from last week's overall state pop vote. I would be curious to see after the election the number of 18-24 yrs. who did vote, and see if that projection was right. I can go make breakfast now after seeing your work. I like Pew's results. If Obama wins by their margin, it will be historic for a democrat, correct ? OK. Have a good weekend. I will make an extra pancake for you this morning with lots of butter and home made syrup to go with your coffee.

[phrigndumass]

15. mmmm .... Pancakes!

You're making me hungry, lol :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[mucifer]

9. Thanks Phrig! and good morning!

[Demeter]

10. This Post Is So Neat--Like Flipping Through the Family Photo Album

Smile, America, You're on Candid Camera!

This post strikes me as perfectly formatted. Every graph flows from the next. A story without words.

[ej510]

13. Any senior that votes for any repuke should drop out of medicare and medicaid.

[Jersey Devil]

14. Interesting that trends show O going up with older voters and

somewhat down with younger (30s-40s) voters if you look at the graphs. Since older voters are more reliable as far as showing up at the polls that may actually be helpful to Obama

[phrigndumass]

17. Isn't it? I'm curious about the 30somethings ...

It's almost as if many people turn republican when they hit 30. I wonder if they're more susceptible to fear ...

:donut: Good morning, Jersey Devil! :hi:

[Demeter]

18. Those Reagan Babies--They're Bucking the Trend

Those are the would-be Masters of the Universe, spawn of Gingrich's Contract on America.

[olegramps]

16. Its embarrassing to be in the stupid old fart group

[grantcart]

19. Wasn't 40% of the White vote the number that we were sure would guarantee

victory. Breakdown by age is, well, stunning.

[phrigndumass]

22. Yes, 40% :)

Obama has maintained that and more :woohoo:

[livetohike]

21. Yay for the Baby Boomers!

Nice margins :-).

[druidity33]

23. in the 3rd graphic...

it seems like the numbers in the STATUS column are wrong?

is there something i'm missing?

:shrug:

[phrigndumass]

27. OOPS! UPDATED CROSSTAB STATUS TABLE * * *

Thanks for catching that, druidity! The Status column was correct, but I neglected to update the percentages. :hi:

Here it is, updated:

[druidity33]

33. cheers! K&R, nt

[jonestonesusa]

24. Fascinating data...thanks!

It strikes me as it does others that the election hinges on white voter support for the progressive candidate. Fortunately, negative campaigning and wedge issues have been exposed as the sham that they are during this election season, and that can only help. Time to close the deal with GOTV!

[Smuckies]

25. Thanks for the update

I'm definitely getting nervous :(...only 3 more days!!

[progressoid]

26. Weird. the younger ones are trending red?

What the hell is going on?

[fight4my3sons]

30. afternoon kick

:hi:

[DemocracyInaction]

31. HEY -somebody can't subract!

My age group 60-64. That's an 8 pt. lead for Obama not a 2 or whatever they have. Maybe someone should check their math!!!

[phrigndumass]

34. lol ... I goofed ... reposted a fix in Reply #27

Good to know people are double-checking my figures! :hi: