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Saturday Morning Data Dump – 11/1 – Tightening: Men Tip to McCain; Seniors Tied

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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 09:51 AM
Original message
Saturday Morning Data Dump – 11/1 – Tightening: Men Tip to McCain; Seniors Tied


(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 7.0%, or 51.1% to 44.1% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 6.1% for Obama (down from 7.0% last week). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 6.2% for Obama (down from 6.6% last week), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 6.5% (down from 7.1% last week) nationwide.

As the National Poll Widget below shows, Obama’s nationwide lead is +7.8% on average, or 0.8 points above what the state polls show for the popular vote (Obama +7.0%, see blue widget above). The daily tracking poll average lead of Obama +6.6% is more similar to the lead Obama is seeing in the state polls than the non-daily national poll lead of Obama +8.4.





The widget below is a quick summary of where all the demographics currently stand. The graphs following show these statistics over time.







GENDER CROSSTABS













ETHNICITY CROSSTABS















AGE CROSSTABS






































.
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   Replies to this thread
   Thanks as always, should I take a pill  goclark   Nov-01-08 09:54 AM   #1 
   yw, goclark :)  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 09:58 AM   #3 
   "on our way to a win" -- those are beautiful words! Thanx. nt  Kukesa   Nov-01-08 10:22 AM   #12 
   here is your pill to calm your nerves  grantcart   Nov-01-08 10:59 AM   #20 
      And that's an easy one to swallow. nt  Kukesa   Nov-01-08 11:36 AM   #28 
   McPOW is leading  Sebass1271   Nov-01-08 09:55 AM   #2 
   Same question here  goclark   Nov-01-08 10:04 AM   #5 
      Democratic Presidential candidates never lead among white voters  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 10:07 AM   #6 
         Hence the Frantic Voter Suppression Attempts  Demeter   Nov-01-08 10:21 AM   #11 
         I think the Latino vote will be the key.  Lochloosa   Nov-01-08 11:36 AM   #29 
         Thanks you saved me from taking a sleeping pill  goclark   Nov-01-08 05:18 PM   #32 
   Thanks phrigndumass!  jefferson_dem   Nov-01-08 10:03 AM   #4 
   Thanks jd :)  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 10:08 AM   #7 
   Thank you Mr. P ! I can go make pancakes now. Obama has it handled.  CADEMOCRAT7   Nov-01-08 10:13 AM   #8 
   mmmm .... Pancakes!  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 10:28 AM   #15 
   Thanks Phrig! and good morning!  mucifer   Nov-01-08 10:15 AM   #9 
   This Post Is So Neat--Like Flipping Through the Family Photo Album  Demeter   Nov-01-08 10:19 AM   #10 
   Any senior that votes for any repuke should drop out of medicare and medicaid.  ej510   Nov-01-08 10:24 AM   #13 
   Interesting that trends show O going up with older voters and  Jersey Devil   Nov-01-08 10:24 AM   #14 
   Isn't it? I'm curious about the 30somethings ...  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 10:31 AM   #17 
   Those Reagan Babies--They're Bucking the Trend  Demeter   Nov-01-08 10:32 AM   #18 
   Its embarrassing to be in the stupid old fart group  olegramps   Nov-01-08 10:31 AM   #16 
   Wasn't 40% of the White vote the number that we were sure would guarantee  grantcart   Nov-01-08 10:34 AM   #19 
   Yes, 40% :)  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 11:07 AM   #22 
   Yay for the Baby Boomers!  livetohike   Nov-01-08 11:02 AM   #21 
   in the 3rd graphic...  druidity33   Nov-01-08 11:16 AM   #23 
   OOPS! UPDATED CROSSTAB STATUS TABLE * * *  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 11:36 AM   #27 
      cheers! K&R, nt  druidity33   Nov-01-08 05:42 PM   #33 
   Fascinating data...thanks!  jonestonesusa   Nov-01-08 11:18 AM   #24 
   Thanks for the update  Smuckies   Nov-01-08 11:20 AM   #25 
   Weird. the younger ones are trending red?  progressoid   Nov-01-08 11:34 AM   #26 
   afternoon kick  fight4my3sons   Nov-01-08 03:57 PM   #30 
   HEY -somebody can't subract!  DemocracyInaction   Nov-01-08 04:13 PM   #31 
      lol ... I goofed ... reposted a fix in Reply #27  phrigndumass   Nov-01-08 08:51 PM   #34 
 
goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Donate to DU! Sat Nov-01-08 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks as always, should I take a pill
Edited on Sat Nov-01-08 10:02 AM by goclark
to calm my nerves?

You know how I get --- :scared:
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. yw, goclark :)
:donut: Good morning! :hi:

We are on our way to a win on Tuesday! :D
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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
12. "on our way to a win" -- those are beautiful words! Thanx. nt
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
20. here is your pill to calm your nerves
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #20
28. And that's an easy one to swallow. nt
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Sebass1271 (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
2. McPOW is leading
in the white category????

i had hoped for better results in this category.. : (((
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Donate to DU! Sat Nov-01-08 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Same question here


How will that play into the overall election results? :scared:
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Democratic Presidential candidates never lead among white voters
The best they can hope for is around 40% ... Obama's portion of the white demographic are actually higher than Kerry's and Gore's, around 42%. Voters from other ethnic groups will easily put Obama over the top, because Obama is garnering the support of around 95% of African American voters and about 62% of Latino voters.

:D
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:21 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. Hence the Frantic Voter Suppression Attempts
If I were in the GOP, I'd have to seriously rethink its reason for existing....
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Lochloosa Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #6
29. I think the Latino vote will be the key.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Donate to DU! Sat Nov-01-08 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #6
32. Thanks you saved me from taking a sleeping pill

:smile:
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
4. Thanks phrigndumass!
Great work! :hi:
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Thanks jd :)
:donut: Good morning! :hi:
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CADEMOCRAT7 (553 posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:13 AM
Response to Original message
8. Thank you Mr. P ! I can go make pancakes now. Obama has it handled.
Thank you for this !!! Obama is up from last week's overall state pop vote. I would be curious to see after the election the number of 18-24 yrs. who did vote, and see if that projection was right. I can go make breakfast now after seeing your work. I like Pew's results. If Obama wins by their margin, it will be historic for a democrat, correct ? OK. Have a good weekend. I will make an extra pancake for you this morning with lots of butter and home made syrup to go with your coffee.
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. mmmm .... Pancakes!
You're making me hungry, lol :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:
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mucifer (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:15 AM
Response to Original message
9. Thanks Phrig! and good morning!
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:19 AM
Response to Original message
10. This Post Is So Neat--Like Flipping Through the Family Photo Album
Smile, America, You're on Candid Camera!

This post strikes me as perfectly formatted. Every graph flows from the next. A story without words.
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ej510 (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:24 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. Any senior that votes for any repuke should drop out of medicare and medicaid.
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Jersey Devil Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
14. Interesting that trends show O going up with older voters and
Edited on Sat Nov-01-08 10:26 AM by Jersey Devil
somewhat down with younger (30s-40s) voters if you look at the graphs. Since older voters are more reliable as far as showing up at the polls that may actually be helpful to Obama
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. Isn't it? I'm curious about the 30somethings ...
It's almost as if many people turn republican when they hit 30. I wonder if they're more susceptible to fear ...

:donut: Good morning, Jersey Devil! :hi:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:32 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. Those Reagan Babies--They're Bucking the Trend
Those are the would-be Masters of the Universe, spawn of Gingrich's Contract on America.
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olegramps Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:31 AM
Response to Original message
16. Its embarrassing to be in the stupid old fart group
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
19. Wasn't 40% of the White vote the number that we were sure would guarantee
victory. Breakdown by age is, well, stunning.
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. Yes, 40% :)
Obama has maintained that and more :woohoo:
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livetohike Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:02 AM
Response to Original message
21. Yay for the Baby Boomers!
Nice margins :-).
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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
23. in the 3rd graphic...
it seems like the numbers in the STATUS column are wrong?

is there something i'm missing?

:shrug:
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #23
27. OOPS! UPDATED CROSSTAB STATUS TABLE * * *
Thanks for catching that, druidity! The Status column was correct, but I neglected to update the percentages. :hi:

Here it is, updated:
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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #27
33. cheers! K&R, nt
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jonestonesusa Donating Member (592 posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Donate to DU! Sat Nov-01-08 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
24. Fascinating data...thanks!
Edited on Sat Nov-01-08 11:21 AM by jonestonesusa
It strikes me as it does others that the election hinges on white voter support for the progressive candidate. Fortunately, negative campaigning and wedge issues have been exposed as the sham that they are during this election season, and that can only help. Time to close the deal with GOTV!
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Smuckies (598 posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
25. Thanks for the update
I'm definitely getting nervous :(...only 3 more days!!
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progressoid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
26. Weird. the younger ones are trending red?
What the hell is going on?
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fight4my3sons (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
30. afternoon kick
:hi:
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DemocracyInaction (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
31. HEY -somebody can't subract!
My age group 60-64. That's an 8 pt. lead for Obama not a 2 or whatever they have. Maybe someone should check their math!!!
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phrigndumass (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Nov-01-08 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. lol ... I goofed ... reposted a fix in Reply #27
Good to know people are double-checking my figures! :hi:
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