Guys, Zogby is a crap poll and you know it.

[Zynx]

In truth, it's always been crappy. Sometimes he is just lucky. His results in 2000 were probably just lucky. Those with a memory will remember how he showed California tied in 2000 just before election day. He also showed Illinois close that year for most of October before a late Gore surge to bring him in line with other pollsters. In 2004, we all know about his fucked up results in the general election, but remember his primary polls? He showed Dean making a huge surge in New Hampshire, even pulling ahead for a day in individual day polling, but then brought it back in line at the very end.

His fuck ups in the primaries this year were legendary. His poll so far this month has been garbage oscillating between a McCain surge and a McCain collapse from day to day. The truth is that there is never all that much movement near the end of a campaign. Zogby makes shit up for the purpose of bringing attention to himself. It's as simple as that.

[garybeck]

1. it still serves a purpose

if they steal the election, they can look back at these crap polls to show there was a shift right before election night. it's a setup.

[gravity]

8. One crap poll isn't going to do that

plus the Zogby is a national poll which doesn't matter for the election

[garybeck]

15. it's not the only poll that shows tightening

there's an AP poll out there too. all they need is something to grasp onto and then they can point to it later.

[Bicoastal]

2. I REALLY didn't need this heading out into the evening, I really didn't.

x(

[fed_up_mother]

3. Yeah. I'm sitting here nervously eating Halloween candy.

As if I need this sugary junk!

[Bicoastal]

5. But let's be honest--going from +7 to -1 in ONE DAY? That doesn't smell right.

So what's going on here?

[progressivebydesign]

7. his one day poll was of 300 people, on halloween.

almost as if he WANTED to get that reaction. And there is no word, and no way of knowing truly, how he chose his respondents. He is not a reliable poller, nor does have have a trustworthy reputation.

[Zynx]

9. Well, first it is one night sample. That has an MoE of something like + or - 5%

which can create a 10 point range in terms of spread. That's also if the methodology was correct to begin with which with Zogby is doubtful. Second, this will only bring the average to something like a 3-4 point lead. Granted, a repeat result would probably almost put McCain in the lead, but I doubt it will happen. There was nothing that would have caused this. Gallup and ABC run much better tracking polls.

[writes3000]

4. There are 30 polls that show Obama with the clear lead. Anyone focused on Zogby is dumb

OR anxiety-addicted.

It's that simple.

[crossroads]

6. Zogby poll? What is that?

Relax people... keep your thoughts positive! Doubt is poison in the community well...
We all know Zorby is screwn!
CR

[Obi Juan]

10. Relax! They do 3-day averages because of daily results like this..

Besides, drudge hasn't posted any daily Zogby results for how long?

[Darian]

11. Zogby polls are always crap.

It doesn't matter who is winning according to Zogby. We all know his polls suck and aren't worth taking seriously.

[Name removed]

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[DemFromMem]

13. FiveThirtyEight will put you at ease

Nate has been consistently criticizing Zogby whether its numbers have looked good for Obama or not. There are serious probelms. From www.fivethirtyeight.com:

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

[mvd]

14. Zogby is NOT a legit poll.

Don't trust it when Obama is doing well, and don't trust it when he isn't.

[mzmolly]

16. Where is the poll? I see this on the website currently -

"Part of one day’s worth of polling came after Obama’s 30-minute televised campaign pitch to voters on Wednesday, but voters didn’t seem to react one way or the other. The contest remained static with Obama garnering 50.1% support, compared to McCain’s 43.1%."

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

[AnotherMother4Peace]

17. Total crap. Chris Matthews said that it was a Republican poll.