[Drudge] ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

[Unsane]

Drudge's faux "it's close" narrative is on display again...

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

OMG DEVELOPING....






I can't wait for Tuesday. It will make this all the sweeter to see the propagandists like Drudge have to face the fucking truth.

[RBInMaine]

1. This is total shit !

[ruggerson]

2. Both Drudge and Zogby are so damn accurate

they define the word "credible."

[Bicoastal]

3. WHAT?! Obama was leading by 7 points! WTF!!

[high density]

4. Zogby had Kerry at 311 EVs the day of the election

I'd just as soon see him call this one for McCain.

[Jersey Devil]

5. Aw, not this shit again!

I thought we were done with this crap

[Roninvet]

14. Thank God for the Electoral College

The Popular vote will be scary....Thanks Joe the Douchebag!

[Hope And Change]

6. Why do you post this shit here?Seriously?People should be banned for posting DRUDGE BS here on DU!!!

[thenam]

12. Calm down, it is fine.

Zogby is always an outlier. The trends we see in all of the polls combined are pretty clear. Zogby = LOL

[MadBadger]

13. But you know it wont be BS....for all the lying Drudge does, hes been spot on in the polls

If he says a poll said something, it says something later.

[Marsala]

25. Even if it's true, it's still BS

Zogby polls are defective. No tracker should be that volatile; it's ludicrous.

[alcibiades_mystery]

45. Unsane is a McCain Supporter

Once you grok that, all else makes sense. Unsane will be a laughingstock on these boards come Tuesday night.

[thenam]

7. The volatility of Zogby is amusing

Zogby makes Gallup like pretty damned stable. And that is saying something.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

8. Rachel Maddow has been saying this forever. Let's prove them wrong! VOTE VOTE VOTE!

Don't forget 2000 and 2004.


GET YOUR BUTTS TO THE POLLS!

[Zynx]

"This" is classic Zogby B.S. I remember back in 2000 when he had Bush tie Gore in California

That was B.S. then and this is B.S. now. If ABC/WaPo, Gallup, and others show this, maybe I will get concerned. You made an irresponsible statement and you should apologize.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

30. Who should I apologize to? Rachel? How was my statement in anyway irresponsible?

Get out and vote.

[DefenseLawyer]

9. Later in the day, Zogby carved a backward "Z" in Drudge's ass... developing...

[FreeState]

10. sounds like an outliner to me n/t

[KingFlorez]

11. Zogby is a mess

What sort of polling is being done there?

[GrizzlyMan]

15. Let the freepers think they can win

Their pain on election night will be all the sweeter.

What Zogby doesn't seem to understand is that a lot of the hay is already in the barn thanks to early voting.

[Thrill]

16. When you start posting one day polling. You are looking for anything to help McCain

I've never heard of such bullshit. One day polling??

[Unsane]

18. Agreed. How fucking stupid. Was it online? lol

At this stage in the game, national polls are out the window.

[EastTennesseeDem]

17. "Shut the fuck up, John Zogby and Matt Drudge" Day can't come soon enough

[progressivebydesign]

19. And what polling was that.. exactly? It's all bullshit unless we see the sampling..

and frankly WHERE the polling was done. Considering Zogby is famous for polling that involves people who sign up online to take polls, AND has been taking money from Newsmax to do push polling, AND was hopelessly wrong 9 times out of 10 regarding Kerry v. Bush, I'd say he's an idiot.

Why do people enjoy posting Drudge crap here?

[Quixote1818]

20. It's Halloween, only old people are home. nt

[GrizzlyMan]

22. Fundies are home. Halloween is the Devil don't you know.

[BeyondGeography]

21. And Obama won the California primary by 10 points

Oh, wait, he lost it by 10 points. Whatever.

[MadBadger]

23. LOL...I think he won Cali by 13

[anonymous171]

48. whoops wrong reply.

[Poseidan]

24. just curious

Do current polls take into account early-voting?

[rufus dog]

26. everyone needs to calm down

Halloween night, which demos are going to be busy? Who is going to be in a normal mode? (hint older people and rural without kids)

[tpi10d]

27. Zogby: conservative house effect.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/trackers_and_house_effects.php

Plus it is a relatively volatile poll in its 3 day tracking format. Zogby leaks one day of the sample to drudge to maximize the effect (large sample noise). Nothing more than a gimmick here.

This runs counter to all the tracking polls released within the last 18 hours.

ABC/WP released approx. 5 hours ago showed Obama with 9 point lead (+1).

Little/no change in the status quo re: headline news or anything to account for a change in momentum reflected in the zogby one day sample.

[RBInMaine]

28. MANY other polls have Obama UP today. NO WAY this could be accurate. READ FURTHER.

October 31, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Widens Some on All BasesAdvances to 8-point lead among “traditional likely voters”USA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ -- The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

[Thrill]

29. No credible Polling Agency would release a one day poll. NONE

[FVZA_Colonel]

31. Especially not on HALLOWEEN!

[KamaAina]

32. Drudge = BS -- with a backwards 'B'

:grr:

[FVZA_Colonel]

33. He hasn't even put the damn thing on his front page, so he must not even think it's that important.

http://www.zogby.com/


The 7 point poll is still up.

[Quixote1818]

37. His site is getting overwhelmed. I can't get through. nt

[FVZA_Colonel]

39. It was back up a moment ago.

[Quixote1818]

43. This is the only link I could get to work

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1622

[BlooInBloo]

34. Fail.

[progressivebydesign]

35. Also.. a poster noted it was a sample size of only 300 people, on Halloween.

Polling 300 people is totally ridiculous. Zogby is a tool.

[Bicoastal]

38. Are these polls conducted in the daytime or the evening?

I'm guessing evening--OK, that IS bullshit.

[Quixote1818]

40. I would guess after 5:00 pm when people start getting home

On Halloween most people are getting ready to go out or are at the bar, accept very conservative types and old folks. It would seem a piss poor day for polling. Enough to cause a 7% shift. That is less than 1 in 33 people. If 3.5 people out of 100 shift from Obama to McCain then you have a tie. I would guess that the number of people out on Halloween is around 25% mostly young people. Any sample done on Halloween would need to be taken with a grain of salt.

[tpi10d]

42. exactly- a 300 person sample is as noisy as hell.

Of course you don't see the occasional Obama +15 (one night) reported to Drudge. Statistical noise does that too :)

[Renew Deal]

36. Zogby seems to throw in 1 bad day for Obama for every good day.

Whatever.

[bdamomma]

41. this is BS.

[jenmito]

44. Drudge also posted O'Reilly's and Hannity's ratings being double of Keith's...

and Keith just reported tonight that HE beat O'Reilly last night (again) so I don't believe Zogby anymore since he leaks his polls to Drudge.

[codjh9]

46. Ha ha - 'NASCAR voters'? I didn't know that was a specific demographic - but f- 'em anyway. n/t

[Name removed]

47. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Gabi Hayes]

53. very illuminating, interesting post....especially for a first one.

Welcome to DU!

[Raine1967]

56. Consider this...

We don't need someone like Zogby to save us from ourselves.

Consider this.. HONEST polling.
consider this... NOT manipulating people.

Consider this... your justification of Zogby smells like like John McCain saying being down in the polls is 'quote' just where we want them. 'unquote'


If what you are saying is true then, Zogby is just as bad as ANY republican playing the game of voter suppression.

FAIL.

[FVZA_Colonel]

57. The connection to Drudge really disturbs me.

He always leaks to Drudge, every day, even if the numbers aren't good for McCain (those days Drudge just doesn't run them). There has to be some sort of unofficial relationship between the two.


Welcome to DU!

[anonymous171]

49. lol zogby. 300 people=national sample. nt

[jefferson_dem]

50. Interviewed on Hallow-fucking-ween...

Dismiss...

[Phredicles]

54. Furthermore, it's a sample of 300 McCain campaign workers.

;):P

[AlCzervik]

58. was that the sample size? if so than Op---please!

[AlCzervik]

51. did you ever notice it's you who always seems to post this stuff?

that's rhetorical btw.

[Danger Mouse]

52. Can you stop posting this drooling moron's shit here?

[krawhitham]

55. Nate has spoken

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

[captainjack08]

59. No way McCain can win if the election is fair

Just look at the rallies and the size of donations going to Obama vs. to McCain. The American people are behind Obama. If McCain somehow "wins" it will simply be because some compromised Republican criminals rigged the vote and stole it AGAIN.

I have to wonder sometimes if some pollsters like Zogby are secretly working with Republicans like Diebold to feed us these obviously bogus polling numbers. Or maybe someone's got dirt on Zogby to make them rig the polls. Because otherwise this makes no sense. Or unknown to Zogby the Republicans are somehow gaming the polls? Maybe with an "inside man" or something? What gives???

All I know is that it appears that once again they are trying to bring McCain and Obama's polling numbers as close to 50/50 as possible so they can put McCain over the top by stealing. Absolute bullshit. Every logical sign shows Obama to be cleary ahead.

[workinclasszero]

60. BS! How much did Limbaugh pay Zogby for that poll?

:eyes:

We will see how the polls come out on the 4th. GOTV dems, all the young people better be there voting for Obama.

They will regret it the rest of their lives if they don't.

[RollWithIt]

61. Shoutout to Drudge?? For firing up more Dems to show up and vote?

Go Drudge! Woh, that was weird to type.