Question on youth turnout: if it's low, why doesn't that help Obama?

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

premise: say 14% of the electorate was 18-29 year-old voters voted in your state's Democratic primary (as they did in NC)
premise: the Republicans are running a guy who nobody under 30 can really get fired up about because he's 72 (among other things), likely meaning his support from that demographic will be limited
premise: Republicans and Democrats vote in your state, meaning if the % of the electorate in the general is 13.2% (as it is for early voting in NC) it is actually almost double the turnout of the youth vote in the primary

theory: Obama kicks ass in any state where the 18-29 share of the electorate comes anywhere close to his % share in the primary. Figure 18-29ers vote for him by a nice margin and that many more of them in raw numbers are actually voting.

theory: you know what it takes to motivate a young voter to go to the polls. If they aren't fired up, they ain't going.

suggestion: Low 18-29 turnout likely means great Obama 18-29 turnout and crappy McHundred 18-29 turnout

[fizzgig]

1. why target young voters with this?

i was not 'fired up' in past elections, but i still voted. i don't see why this applies to only the under-30s

[Danger Mouse]

5. because we always get dumped on. always.

[thoughtcrime1984]

2. Huge numbers of youth voting in my city

Big college town, they had City Hall jam packed today. I think the youth vote will be strong, and will be strong Dem.

[uppityperson]

3. You seem to be saying that the motivated will vote, the unmotivated won't.

So don't worry if there is a low turnout (tossing aside ages) because the ones who vote are the motivated ones, and they will vote for Obama?

[Oliver Carling]

4. Don't flake out: the music video

Young voters at risk of flaking out should watch my music video: http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1107. Spread the word, and enjoy.