Reagan gained as many as 10 pts during the last days of the '80 race - keep fighting!

[smkyle1]

McCain has been showing a lot more confidence lately and his confidence is not completely delusional. He knows that Ronald Reagan gained as many as ten points during the last days of the 1980 campaign.

Could he experience a surge in the final days? It's happened before, more than once. . . .

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/10/31/mccain-hopes-fo...

[Bicoastal]

1. Reagan had a debate the week BEFORE the election. Obama had an infomercial.

McCain...is going on SNL.

[DrToast]

5. Not just a debate, it was the ONLY debate...

And there wasn't a 24 hour news cycle back there.

For many people it was the first chance for people to see Reagan act Presidential.

[smkyle1]

6. and Barack Obama is black

Most non-racists whites are surprised by the racists remarks coming from the far right but many blacks (like myself) are not surprised because we are exposed to a world you rarely see. Obama has, with intention and when possible, avoided aligning himself with the black community during this campaign. His race is the wildcard.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

10. LOL

You're not fooling anybody.

[smkyle1]

11. LOL What are you saying?

What does that mean?

[Essene]

23. "non-racists whites are surprised by the racists remarks" - your post is silly on so many levels

There is racism out there.

Anybody "surprised" by it has been living in a dreamworld filled with lollipops.

1. there are not a lot of pro-obama racists out there and any bigots who've decided to vote obama are going to STAY voting for him

2. the undecideds are leaning obama. even if the majority were racists who swing mccain at the last minute, it's still not going to be enough

3. this will boil down to turn-out. the hate and fear mongering isn't going to make up the distance for mccain in all the swing states.

should the dems continue to work hard until the end of election day? sure.

people have to get the vote out. people have to keep fighting the lies and distortions. but most importantly, we cant become cynical.

[Cats Against Frist]

91. My mom is a racist Obama supporter

Southern Illinois, lifelong Dem voter, pro-union, pro-life, pro-gay and racist as fuck: HUGE (DUKAKIS, CLINTON, GORE, KERRY) OBAMA SUPPORTER.

My whole family was sleeping with the South re-aligned -- all of them Southern Illinois Dems who are racist, but hate the rich more. They're also not that religious. But, they are racist, and I would guess would have a more difficult time supporting Obama if he weren't from Illinois. I think the Illinois-Democrat thing is the clincher: the good news is, that in the face of that, racism doesn't matter.

[smkyle1]

108. yes, we live in a racist country but why is my post "silly on so many levels"?

I won't engage in a debate with you on whether or not my comments are silly but at least argue your point. You start off attacking my post but then fail to offer anything that supports your claim of silliness. I don't get it. If you are trying to say that there is no such thing as a "non-racist" white person, then I understand where you're coming from. But your post does not make this clear.

[Orangepeel]

43. he didn't turn black a week before the election

People got more comfortable with Reagan as they saw more of him (go figure), so his numbers went up after the debate. People get more confortable with Obama as they see more of him, not less. They already knew he is black; they might not have been sure he is presidential).

[smkyle1]

44. you make a good point here

[Baltoman991]

53. Bullshit

Barack Obama has not distanced himself from any group. Where the hell do people come up with this kind of garbage?

[Whalestoe]

2. You're crazy. John McCain is not Ronald Reagan.

[ps1074]

3. McCain is no Reagan

[scheming daemons]

4. The only debate between Reagan and Carter was on 10/28..... AFTER the final polls....

Not analogous at all.

[laconicsax]

7. Reagan had an Iranian hostage crisis being manipulated in his favor

[4lbs]

14. True. Interesting how the hostages were released on Reagan's inauguration day.

n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

17. Hostages were released on inauguration day because Carter finished the deal a few days before, BUT

But the fact that they weren't willing to release the hostages until after the election is the real question with regard to Reagan's potential involvement.

[smkyle1]

45. I thought about that at the time-Was Reagan's possible involvment discussed much?

I wasn't very political back then.

[Iggo]

79. All the time, every day. (n/t)

[smkyle1]

94. what does n/t mean?

[Hippo_Tron]

90. Wasn't alive back then

But I don't buy the bullshit that Reagan merely being elected sufficiently scared the Khomeini into caving. The Iran-Iraq war also started in September 1980 and that probably put pressure on Iran to release the hostages.

[sixmile]

92. See: October Surprise

Worth a read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise_conspirac...

And Iran Contra for further scumbaggery:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Contra_Affair

Reagan and his cronies had already negotiated the release of the 52 American hostages via proxies and the help of Poppy Bush

[smkyle1]

95. I was not that political back then but. . .

But I didn't exactly have my head buried in the sand either. The American media hasn't been on its job for several decades.

[smkyle1]

96. thanks for the links

[smkyle1]

57. Is this something that lots of people knew about?

I was an adult at the time by barely 21

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

8. The surge is going towards Obama.

Read the Gallup polls and check for yourself.

[smkyle1]

16. maybe I've been burned too many times. . . .

It feels like this is so close to being real yet I get a nagging feeling that things could still turn on a dime. This is not a baseless unfounded gut feeling. I just want to encourage everyone to not get to comfortable. I noticed some people on DU getting irritated with Rachel Maddow for saying the same thing. I look at the poll numbers in the battleground states and it's not beyond the realm of possibility that McCain could win more than the polls suggest.

[S_E_Fudd]

9. If my recollection is correct...and this was the first election I voted in...

Was that there were an extraordinary amount of undecideds right before election day...

I think Carter was leading slightly in Gallup, but his total % was in the hi 30's low 40's...

[Alter Ego]

12. The hostage crisis was in full swing at this point in the 1980 race.

And McCain != Raygun.

[smkyle1]

13. Good Point but. . . .

In almost every campaign since 1988, except for when Senator Bob Dole lost to President Bill Clinton in 1996, the eventual losers experienced a last minute burst of energy.

[Generic Brad]

54. There's not enough Viagra in the medicine chest this time around for a final surge

McCain will be experiencing electoral dysfunction.

[smkyle1]

93. that's funny. Hope you're right.

[BlueIdaho]

15. This election is in our hands now...

We are the ground game Barack is depending on. Knock on doors, make calls, drive folks to the polls, and donate money. Its now or never. We need to work like the devil for Barack, a filibuster proof congress, and the Supreme Fucking Court.

Fired Up and Ready to Go!

[smkyle1]

46. that's the spirit!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Apples and oranges.

Firstly, one poll showed Carter up ten, most showed it a very tight race.

Secondly, there was ONE debate a week before the election. Many voters were convinced they didn't like Carter, but didn't fully trust Reagan. He slaughtered Carter in the debate, lowered their fears and they went to his side in droves.

Thirdly, McCain ain't Reagan.

Fourthly, Obama ain't Carter.

[Sodan]

24. and this is 2008 the age of the internet (youtube etc.)

[Drunken Irishman]

27. And there wasn't much state polling done back then.

Generally it was all national polls, so no one really knew how much Reagan was dominating at the state level.

Oh and there is also the whole mass media thing. Back in 1980, there wasn't one. Information was gathered through radio, newspapers and nightly news. Not anymore. A late surge could easily be detected.

[The Stranger]

19. It is truly bizarre beyond all comprehension how some DUers IN-FUCKING-SIST on being overconfident.

I just don't fucking understand. Why not do everything -- everyFUCKINGthing -- all the way until the last poll closes -- to MAKE GOD DAMN SURE WE WIN THIS?

Instead, they shout down anyone who insists it is not over until McCain concedes.

Why? Why? Why? Why? Why?

[Drunken Irishman]

22. No one is overconfident.

But there isn't a need to get super, duper cautious, either!

We're doing everything, but even the Republicans concede this race is likely over.

[The Stranger]

28. No, they're not conceding jack shit. Although we're riducling them, they are saying that their

numbers are different, and that they are closing fast.

We're too quick to ridicule them, instead of wisely taking them at their word.

Election Night 2004 had the whole god damned board in jubiliant celebration because the exit polls showed that Kerry had won. The Republicans were saying the exit polls were off.

Guess what?

The exit polls were off.

And here we are.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. Yes, believe Republican numbers over Obama's and published polls.

The only people pushing these fake internals are the McCain camp. You want to know why? Because everyone thinks they're bunk.

Republicans know it's over. Democrats know it's over. Yes, we shouldn't let up, but you can still say "we're gonna win this thing" and work our butts off.

And the exit polls were off in 2004, but we're not talking exit polls. The polls leading up to the election showed Bush winning and what do you know, he did.

[Puzzler]

33. "The only people pushing these fake internals are the McCain camp..." Agreed!

The McCain camp needs the boost, even if it's imaginary (which it is, IMHO). They're probably very worried about sagging GOP voter confidence. Sure, they'll get most of the hard-core nutcase Palinites, but they need a lot more than that, and they know it. From their point of view they cannot have the less committeds skipping voting because they think McCain's a lost cause.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

32. This is in no way, shape, or form like the 2004 election.

The 2004 election was a toss up for weeks, and this is nothing like it.

[No Elephants]

34. The exit polls were not "off." The voting machines were.

[Mojorabbit]

80. Exactly!!!!

I was in total shock when that election was finally called against us. I will not feel confident this time until it is all over.

[drumwolf]

107. You are absolutely spot on.

I was an active member of DU during the 2004 election and most of DU was absolutely convinced Kerry had already won. And there were a lot of DU members who would shout down anyone who dared insist that there actually was a chance that Bush might win his second term. I went on a very long hiatus from DU because of it.

Realistically, I think Obama has about a 99% chance of winning. However, a 99% chance is not good enough. This race is not over until November 5th and we need to keep working until then.

[Ozma]

20. Oh PULLEEZZE

John McCain is no Ronald Reagan.

He's stumbling more and more every day. He can't even find Joe the plumber at his rally.

Ronald Reagan had George HW Bush as VP. Sarah Palin is no GHWB!

[Lionhearted]

88. "Poppy" Bush was no great campaigner, was he?

He was a pseudo-patrician jerk who drove people away from the polls, wasn't he?

Palin, for all her many failings, is the "It" girl. We better be prepared for her down the road.

She does resonate with people. If Hillary had Palin's personality and glitz, we'd have elected her queen.

[kwolf68]

21. Much as I don't like Reagan

He is infinitely superior to McLame/Failin in nearly every meaningful way as a politician, communicator and consistent promoter of the conservative vision.

We've had 30 years of this vision that has wrecked the economy and wrecked the world and McCain is a dinosaur...back then, the 'vision' was fresh so to speak.

I don't see the same similiarities between Ronny R and McCain.

[krawhitham]

25. The Reagan comeback is a myth

http://www.amstat.org/sections/SRMS/proceedings/papers/...

[relayerbob]

106. Exactly. Carter was already behind, unfortunately

The only surprise really was how big a loss it was. in the article on 10/24, Cater was down by 8

A better example would be if now something happened and gave Obama another boost and several more states taht are now considered McCain states.

But the far right can always dream, and your point is well taken, we cannot stop and rest now. Run through the finish line.

[AkFemDem]

26. Looks like Obama is this yrs Reagan, how bout that gallup poll. Go Obama!!!

[truthisfreedom]

29. Obama is Reagan in this case. He's our Reagan.

I'm not worried about the polls. I'm worried about people being able/willing to vote, and those votes being counted.

[cali]

31. sorry, but that's not only simplistic, it's misinterpreting history.

First of all, McCain ain't Reagan, who actually had political skills, and projected optimism. Secondly, Reagan's ascendence in the polls came on the heels of his the debate.

[No Elephants]

35. As President, Carter's approval ratings were almost as low as Bush's are now. It would be as if

Bush were running now. McCain is the one associated with the low rated President, not Obama. But, never exhale until Wednesday anyway. It would be foolhardy.

[bklyngrl60]

36. I agree that we must remain vigilant. But really, it's Obama who is the "Reagan" here...

If anyone is poised to surge, it's Obama.

A poll that says that 60% of respondents feel your VP candidate isn't qualified to be VP - is pretty bad. Even if it's a liberal, biased poll - cut it in half - 35% think she can't be VP???????????????

[David__77]

37. Yes, Obama could win in a landslide, it's true... So let's work hard!

People really want change now. That's why we have to work VERY hard the next few days to ensure a double-digit Obama win!

Good point!

[blogslut]

38. Okay

But I don't think the hostages are going to get freed before election day.

[AZBlue]

39. Whether or not this is an appropriate comparison, the call to KEEP WORKING UNTIL THE POLLS CLOSE is

100% accurate!

[smkyle1]

41. you completely understand the reason for this original post

thank you!

[Zynx]

40. Not at all the same thing. First, way more undecideds. Second, there was a debate.

Third, he was running against an incumbent in a bad economy. Argument destroyed.

[suston96]

42. Not the same deal in 1980.......

It is an intriguing notion: A story today suggests Reagan trailed then-President Jimmy Carter by eight percentage points in late October, and that, when paired with Reagan's 10 point win on Election Day, would have made for a remarkable turnabout.

But a review of the late 1980 polls shows that while Reagan soared over the final week (following the campaign's one and only debate on Oct. 29), the contest up until that point was tightly competitive, not trending toward the incumbent Democratic president. At the time, the Associated Press reported "new polls say the race between the two men remains too close to call."

A post-election summary of polls by then-CBS News pollster Warren Mitofsky shows that at no point over the final two weeks did Carter have a lead bigger than three percentage points. There is a published Gallup poll not included in that report showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27. Whether six or the eight points cited today, Carter's advantage in Gallup polling was offset by similarly large Reagan leads in NBC-Associated Press or DMI (Reagan's pollsters) polls.

The bottom line is that there was no evident momentum for either candidate as the 1980 presidential election neared its completion. That is until Reagan's breakthrough debate performance.

Of course, at that time Carter was the president with sub-30 percent approval ratings, and Reagan the relative outsider seeking to prove himself to be a "safe" choice.

Also go here: http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:_sqfVr3nkTMJ:www.a...

Slide down to Table 1. You will see the actual polling by date. Reagan did not make a huge comeback. He was ahead of Carter most of the 10 days preceding. He did win by a huge electoral margin and took 51% of the popular.

[smkyle1]

50. thank you this is good information

[Left Is Write]

47. John McCain is not Ronald Reagan. He does not have the popularity or charisma of Reagan.

[smkyle1]

49. You're right on both counts

but the Reagan-Carter race is not the only time there was a huge surge at the end

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/10/31/mccain-hopes-fo...

[Lionhearted]

56. The American voter has changed, too

Reagan benefited mightily from some mighty dirty campaigning, led by Lee Atwater. I think -- I hope -- American voters have seen where that kind of campaigning has led. McCain and Palin have tried to go that direction, not nearly as effectively, but the Obama-Biden are all over every sleazy attempt. Can you believe that hideous "Godless" add done for Elizabeth Dole? Atwater would be proud.

[smkyle1]

58. but didn't Rove use Atwater's same tactics?

[Lionhearted]

74. Indeed, Rove learned at Atwater's knee

It just seems that the ham-handed attempts at smearing this time aren't working very well. Only the most gullible are falling for "socialists," "communist," "unAmerican" accusations. Maybe there are fewer gullible Americans now. Or maybe we've seen where a trickle-down, invade-first philosophy begun under Reagan has left us, at home and abroad.

[smkyle1]

89. or maybe we now moving in different circles

perhaps the populace is just as gullible as it's always been but we are moving in different circles now

[Lionhearted]

97. The current disaster on so many fronts has caught people's attention..

...The Bush Administration and the Pentagon managed to keep the two invasions out of most people's lives but relying on the all-volunteer armed forces and especially by exploiting the reserve and national guard for purposes never intended for them.

But Bush didn't figure out a way to keep the failing economy out of most people's lives.

Quite the reverse, and the people will make sure the Repugnant Party pays.

(If we're the Democrat Party, they're certainly the Repugnant Party or maybe the Grand Old Old Old Party)

[smkyle1]

98. well if these disasters don't wake people up . . .

I'm afraid of what it would take

[Lionhearted]

103. Job losses will rise as the recession moves forward

That'll wake people up even more.

[HughMoran]

48. John McCain is no Ronald Reagan

& the political landscape was a LOT different back then. For fucks sake, this moron (me) even voted for Reagan!! (please don't shoot me - it was my last Republican vote of my life)

[smkyle1]

51. shhhh I voted for him too and I'm ashamed too

I had a moments weakness and succumbed to the pressure my church group was putting on me. I had never voted Repub before and have never done it again. I still feel ashamed.

[Quixote1818]

52. Obama is wearing Reagan's shoes in this election

The economy was on Reagan's side in 1979 and it's on our side in this election. If there is anyone who might surge 10 points this weekend, it's Obama.

[smkyle1]

55. this is good input. I'm going to pass it on.

do you what the flames mean next to a post? I'm asking you because you have posted a lot. I'm obviously a novice.

[Every Man A King]

59. It means you flamed out n/t

[smkyle1]

100. I hate to be a pain in the butt - but what does n/t mean?

[eugeneliberal]

60. Obama isn't in office, during a recession

I thought Carter got a raw deal, but the reality is that the economy was in shambles after his 4 years, we'd been rocked by the first gas crisis, and had a country holding some citizens hostage. In other words, it was a pretty dismal time and a lot of moderates were disappointed in what was happening. Believe it or not, Reagan was the candidate of change, even hope...of course it was BS, but he was the optimist, Carter was the realist.

Obama is this election's change and hope candidate. This is nothing like 1980. Obama is going to win in a landslide. We need to GOTV, but mostly for the under ticket--Obama has this one.

[Name removed]

61. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Drunken Irishman]

62. Cool.

[Lucian]

63. Breaking News!

Kiss my ass troll!

[Name removed]

64. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[pokerfan]

76. Buh bye

[LeftyMom]

65. Breaking news!

Right wing nutjobs are two stupid to spell the word fuck!

[laconicsax]

66. IBTTS

[Name removed]

69. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[billyoc]

67. In time, you'll see, we're right. It's the only way.

After a couple of years in the reeducation camp you'll come around.

Dress warm.

[Name removed]

70. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Oeditpus Rex]

68. Oh, look!

It's an un-person!

[billyoc]

75. He bladed at 45 degrees poorly.

[FloridaJudy]

71. Get a life.

Don't you have some crosses to burn or something?

[FloridaJudy]

72. !

'Nuff said.

[woo me with science]

73. Does your partner know you're out fucking liberals? nt

[FloridaJudy]

77. Well, that was brief and unsatisfying

Sort of like sex with Freepers.

[classiccwhitee]

78. deleted messages?

what the heck happened?

Im new to teh whole internet thing

[FloridaJudy]

81. A nasty little person

With the IQ of a dixie cup was posting atrociously spelled insults to Obama and his supporters. These are people whose only joy in life is being obnoxious and stirring up trouble: we call them "trolls", and they infest the Internet like cockroaches, only less pleasant. The moderators rightly "tombstoned" him (banned him from DU and replaced his profile with a picture of a gravestone) and deleted the trash he posted.

Expect more of this nonsense as the election gets closer.

[mmonk]

82. Things are different. Look at all the early voting.

[Lionhearted]

83. I voted yesterday...

...in Los Angeles. Just because I couldn't wait.

There were hundreds of people. Everyone had to wait the better part of an hour -- some longer as their records were found or fixed.

99% Obama voters, I bet. One guy behind me was talking on his cell phone about how he was going to the RNC victory party. In your local Denny's, I bet.

[mmonk]

85. Lol

Green eggs and ham (early pity breakfast).

[Phx_Dem]

84. John McCain is NOT Ronald Reagan. But you're right. Keep fighting!!

[Tutonic]

86. Iran Hostages?

[bushisanidiot]

87. Reagan made a deal with Iran to sell them weapons in exchange for hostages..

Reagan would NOT have won if it had not been for his illegal dealings with Iran.

[smkyle1]

99. You're right. It's all coming back to me now....

Our mainstream media sucks

[0955Forrest]

101. yeah

mccain is no reagan.

[reflection]

102. I bet Obama's GOTV effort

swamps McCain's. He's got a tremendous advantage in resources.

[ROh70]

104. It keeps getting harder and harder to concern troll these days.

All the oldies but goodies just don't work anymore - can't say, there's still plenty of time, anything can happen, or that the race is tightening, or that John McCain is right where he wants to be.

[relayerbob]

105. Morton Finklebean made up 10 points in one hour once!!!!

Sorry, couldn't resist

[BlooInBloo]

109. Fucking worthless doom & gloomers.

[sarahdemva]

110. Obama is this years reagan, not mccain

if anything Obama is likely to do what reagan did.

[renie408]

111. McCain isn't Reagan. McCain is fading, not gaining. n/t