This is finally shaping up to be the Dean v. Clark primary

[adamrsilva]

battle we knew it would be.

Here's my analysis:

Dean will win Iowa, which will really hurt Gephardt's chances, which helps both Dean and Clark.

Dean will definitely win NH, but Clark will come in second destroying Kerry's chances, in part due to disenchantment with Kerry and undecideds against Dean.

Dean will have the momentum to win most of the primaries on Feb 3, but Clark will make a strong number 2 showing, including beating Edwards for SC, and no one else will win any primaries.

Dean and Clark will be locked in a bitter struggle for the rest of the month, and it won't be decided until March 2.

Now I am a Dean supporter, and I think he will ultimately win because of his early momentum, grassroots organization, and money, but it's not going to easy, and Clark certainly has a decent chance of coming out on top.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. The Dean camp knows Kerry is the one to worry about.

Hence this kind of wishful thinking.

[adamrsilva]

2. Kerry has a chance if he comes in second in NH

But the recent polls suggest Clark is surging ahead. Besides, if the Dean camp worries about anyone it is definitely Clark.

[LuminousX]

15. Correct - so far Dean camp has been focused on Kerry

and haven't had a chance to develope a strategy against Clark. They need to do that soon. The tracking polls in NH show Clark is making steady incremental gains and Dean is making steady incremental losses.

I believe that once the Dean campaign gets past Iowa, there will be a blitzkrieg style push to guarantee a decisive victory in New Hampshire. 10 to 15 points would be great so long as the over all percentage of votes is above 35.

[jmaier]

3. That seems to be a

pretty reasonable analysis however, I really don't believe that any of the candidates are going to go away until well after Feb 3rd. The possible exception is Gephardt if he finishes a weak 2nd or 3rd in IA and is cash strapped. Specifically, I expect to see Lieberman and Kerry through Mar 2nd, regardless of how they score in the polls. Same with Edwards. Remaining a candidate, technically, to the convention gives him a platform to retain some party visibility.

But, hey, who knows! :-)



Wes Clark. He will make an extraordinary American President.

[adamrsilva]

5. I didn't say they would be out immediately but

Gephardt has staked own an Iowa win, Kerry needs number 2 in NH, and Edwards really needs a SC win. That, and they won't have any money.

[John_H]

4. The bottom line for both:

Dean must maintain solid fron runner status going into the super tuesday to have a prayer of knocking Clark out-- A solid win in IA and a big win in NH. Otherwise it goes to Super Tuesday.

A squeaker Dean win in IA and a Clark second place in NH combined with a string of strong Clark showings in South round one puts things dead even going into super tuesday.

Jeez, what a brawl that will be, especially if there's big endorsement news coming out of NY.

If Super Tuesday in inconclusive it goes damn near all the way to the convention imposible to predict a winner.

One thing both camps can agree on is that it could be the closest primary in a long, long time.

[w13rd0]

6. Diebold isn't making the vote counting...

...equipment for the primaries, are they?

[John_H]

8. God I hope not. 'Though we'll know for sure who Chimp really wants

to run against. LOL!

[adamrsilva]

7. Dean need to win big early to beat Clark later?

I don't think that's necesarily true, we don't know how people will vote through February.

[John_H]

9. Dean needs to be percieved as a clear front runner to win in

the south, so yes, IMHO he does need a big win early to win later.

[slinkerwink]

10. this is the kind of primary season I've been waiting for....

[maxr4clark]

11. What I've heard about money

is that, although Dean has raised more, he has also spent more, and that the two have roughly the same amount remaining to spend.

Also, I think there is some merit to the idea that Kerry supporters would tend to choose Clark as their second choice. If Clark does defeat Kerry in NH, I wouldn't be surprised at all if that helped him much more than Dean in the Feb caucuses and primaries.

In addition, we Clark supporters here in Washington state believe we have a surprise coming for Dean...we think we may be able to make Dean an outsider in both Washingtons!

:bounce:

[Rowdyboy]

12. I think you pretty much have it pegged

correctly. And I'm ready for the real race to begin!

[WI_DEM]

13. I agree

it is looking to be Dean vs. Clark. I think we will be fortunate to have either as our nominee.

[jmaier]

14. Welcome to DU

WI_DEM! :hi:




Wes Clark. He will make an extraordinary American President.