Charlie Cook: Obama Heads For The Goal Line

[babylonsister]

Obama Heads For The Goal Line
An Obama White House could be more careful and disciplined than past Democratic administrations.

by Charlie Cook

Saturday, Nov. 1, 2008


It has been 38 years since the Grateful Dead recorded "Truckin'," the song whose lyrics capture this campaign so well: "What a long, strange trip it's been." We haven't had a presidential election in 40 years with as many unexpected twists and turns and weird dynamics.

At this point, John McCain probably can't win without divine intervention. Say what you will about the campaign he has waged and the running mate he picked, but the collapse in credit markets and the stock market may very well have ended his chances of victory, notwithstanding anything he could have said or done differently. The senator from Arizona is a good man, who served his country admirably. And many would say that he deserved a better chance than he got.

Because I've lived and worked in Washington for more than 36 years and spent a lot of time around Capitol Hill, my bias is toward experience--toward believing that time served is often a proxy for knowledge gained about issues and how the federal government sometimes works and often doesn't, about the incredibly complicated world of finance, and about the skills necessary for effective international relations. My preference for experience naturally made me skeptical of Barack Obama. But perhaps it is those who are proven wrong who end up most impressed by someone they underestimated.

Other than his "bitter" comments at a closed-door fundraiser in San Francisco, Obama hasn't made a serious verbal miscue that I'm aware of. The $605 million he has raised is an amount that a year ago would have been considered utterly impossible. His extraordinarily loyal campaign organization not only runs with Prussian efficiency but also appears not to leak or engage in backbiting. The campaigns of McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton created the impression that half the people in a senior staff meeting would love nothing more than to stick knives in the backs of the other half. You don't sense that with Obama's team.

more...

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20081101_1313.php

[scheming daemons]

1. Cook, Sabato, and many others have put their reputations on the line.... these guys are VERY careful

They're calling the race, which puts their careers in jeopardy if they are wrong.


Larry Sabato calling it 364-174 for Obama makes me feel VERY good. His final calls in past races have been VERY accurate.