The Daily Widget, Fri 10/31 – O-371, M-167 – Indiana Tips Red; South Carolina Narrows

[phrigndumass]

Latest Voter Registration Totals
Latest Early Voting Results
Latest Swing State Graphs
Latest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs


1. ANALYSIS

Thirty-nine state polls were released yesterday: 24 for swing states, 6 for blue states and 9 for red states. Barack Obama’s record for this set of states is 27-11-1. The popular vote is tightening only a little bit, by 500,000 since yesterday, but Obama’s lead is still greater than 10 million over John McCain. McCain’s gains yesterday are nowhere near the 2 million per day he needs to maintain catch-up speed. That being so, McCain now needs to find more than 2.5 million new votes every day over the next four days to overtake Obama. The clock is surely not McCain’s friend.





Only three states change columns today, two of them due to polling by Rasmussen. Indiana switches sides today after Rasmussen shows McCain leading by 3 points there. Rasmussen is also showing McCain leading by 4 points in Montana, moving it from the Lean McCain to the Weak McCain column today. And South Carolina moves from Strong McCain to Weak McCain as Survey USA shows McCain’s lead there dropping to single digits.








And finally, one last intriguing factoid: McCain’s highwater state is now Oklahoma at +25.4 as Idaho and Utah narrow significantly since yesterday, although they remain in his Strong column. Bush won five states in 2004 with margins of greater than 30%.

(The “Votemaster” at Electoral-Vote.com needs a new alarm clock, no data yet today.)


Coming Up This Weekend:
- Special Saturday edition of The Daily Widget (expect by 9:00 a.m. Eastern)
- THE MATH Weekly on Sunday morning (look in Editorials & Other Articles forum)
- Updated Voter Registration Totals
- Updated Crosstabs for All The Demographics in the Saturday Morning Data Dump
- Updated State Graphs for Obama’s Seventeen Swing States
- The Daily Widget Projection for Tuesday!


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alabama Obama 36, McCain 61 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.9, 650 LV)
Arizona Obama 46, McCain 53 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 807 LV)
Arizona Obama 44, McCain 48 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
California Obama 55, McCain 33 (Field Poll, 10/23, +/- 3.3, 966 LV)
Colorado Obama 48, McCain 44 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 409 RV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 682 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 44 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 408 RV)
Idaho Obama 32, McCain 55 (Harstad Research, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 503 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 47 (WISH-TV, 10/26, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 45 (Selzer & Co., 10/28, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Iowa Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)
Kentucky Obama 43, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 56, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)
Minnesota Obama 56, McCain 37 (MN Public Radio, 10/26, +/- 4.6, 451 LV)
Minnesota Obama 48, McCain 40 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Montana Obama 46, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada Obama 52, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 684 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 40, B1, N1 (Suffolk University, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey Obama 54, McCain 38 (Research 2000, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 43 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
North Carolina Obama 52, McCain 46 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 667 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 46, Barr 3 (Civitas Institute, 10/28, +/- 4.2, 598 LV)
North Carolina Obama 50, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 41 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 404 RV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 779 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 55, McCain 43 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 768 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 42 (Morning Call, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 610 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 43 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 54, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
South Carolina Obama 42, McCain 53 (NBC/PSRA, 10/26, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
South Carolina Obama 44, McCain 52 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 654 LV)
Texas Obama 40, McCain 51 (Univ of TX-Austin, 10/19, +/- 4.2, 550 RV)
Utah Obama 32, McCain 55 (Mason-Dixon, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Vermont Obama 57, McCain 36 (Research 2000, 10/25, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 44 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 404 RV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 47 (Marist College, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 671 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 55, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 667 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


.

[Demeter]

1. Good Morning P-Man! Good Morning Widgeteers!

I actually got in first---

This thread is the only thing that keeps my nerves from jangling. Thanks for the emotional pillar!

Looking at the last graph, I'm struck by the jaggedness of tracking opinion in the swing states. Are those voters that confused and undecided, or is it the polling methods?

[Kukesa]

10. "emotional pillar" - what a perfect description of phrig's posts. n/t

[phrigndumass]

11. The last graph is the tracking of trading on Intrade :)

People with money are very edgy, lol :D

Indiana's trading is humorous to me ... very bipolar. It has moved in a range of 40 points lately.

Posting this has been like Prozac for me; my nerves are as solid as Michigan is blue.

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

[mucifer]

2. Thanks Phrig! Gotta hang on 5 more days!

[phrigndumass]

13. Yes We Can! :)

:donut: Good morning, mucifer :hi:

[Youphemism]

3. Thanks again, Phrig! So, where would you send Obama to campaign for these last few days?...

I'm going to miss these posts... Maybe you can start tracking other polls after the election. Get the Fantasy Football addicts' opinions of the Superbowl winner, or something.

Or maybe the Obama transition team will hire you on for internal administration polling. I'm sure you could get quite a few recommendations from people 'round these parts.

Thanks as always!

[phrigndumass]

14. Grantcart mentioned Louisiana, Arizona, Georgia :)

I would add Indiana, Montana, Missouri and North Carolina. He's already been in Florida lately.

btw, I'm an NFL Stats Nerd, lol ... it gives me something to look forward to after this :D

:donut: Good morning, Youph! :hi:

[progressive_realist]

25. I'd throw my vote in for Georgia, Arizona, and Montana.

He's already devoted ample time to Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. I doubt more personal appearances there will change anything. Louisiana I still don't see as even potentially in play. Mississippi seems more demographically favorable than post-Katrina Louisiana, but even that seems like a long-shot.

[blue-kite]

4. Cheers Mr Ass!

Great job... love the Oklahoma news. Still a possibility.
What you doing on election night?
Cheers from here
BK
;)

[phrigndumass]

15. Brad Pitt is waiting on the roadside in Oklahoma with his thumb in the air :)

We gotta pick the guy up sooner or later, it might rain. Cheers!

Election night: I've set up a La-Z-Boy media station in my living room, lol ... Laptop and remote control, with tons of munchies and beverages within reach. I'll be glued to the 'puter and the television in comfort :D

:toast:

[blue-kite]

56. I will be in Italy at this time with Italian TV and dial-up...

my god, only the food will make up for my lack of info. I WANT OVERLOADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD! I want to know how many guys named Fred who are married to a Vietnamese girl called Pyoung and have as their hobby the collection of Portuguese bud vases... that is a crucial demographic... I want it mapped out before me on election night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[phrigndumass]

62. LOL

I'm cryin' :rofl:

[tekisui]

5. It's almost here!

I can't believe it. Nice plug for the weekend numbers, look forward to it.

I looked at NC Early Vote--

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7678902&mesg_id=7678902

Obama needs 29%(all Indys)-39%(half the Indys)-48%(no Indys)of Election Day votes to win NC!

It looks good. Morning to you, and thanks for bringing us into the home stretch!:hi:

:bounce: :kick: :yourock: :woohoo: :applause: :patriot:

[phrigndumass]

17. It's almost scary, lol

Especially today ... Boo!

Maximum 48% needed on election day in NC, wow! The 29-48 range is very doable for us! :D

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[Blondiegrrl]

6. Ah, the Deep South is looking pretty in pink.

Thanks, Phrig! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

18. Molly Ringwald, is that you? :)

:7

:donut: Good morning, Blondiegrrl! :hi:

[Blondiegrrl]

29. I have that song stuck in my head! LOL nt

[Youphemism]

7. Also, would tomorrow be the first day to look for any bump from the Obamercial?

It certainly doesn't look as if he got any bump from these numbers.

[phrigndumass]

20. I would expect Sunday and/or Monday for the national polls

They would need Thursday, Friday and Saturday to gather interviews :D

[gademocrat7]

8. Good morning,Mr.P.

Wow! It's almost here. I appreciate your efforts in bringing us the Daily Widget. Looking forward to your weekend analysis.

[phrigndumass]

22. You may be seeing Obama in Georgia before it's all said and done, lol

Fingers crossed for Georgia, and thanks for reading!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Kukesa]

9. McCain needs 2.5 million more/new votes per day?

Wow. That's up from the 1.8 million he needed a couple of days ago.

Good morning and thanks for another wonderful post, dear phrig.



:hi:

[holiday]

12. How awesome is it that ARIZONA is weak McCain!

[Kukesa]

19. "Be still my heart" awesome! We just might win this thing. n/t

[phrigndumass]

23. It goes up significantly more every day that McCain doesn't catch up :)

Should be 3.3 million per day tomorrow, 5 million per day on Sunday, and finally 10 million per day (with one day left).

Follow the red line north :hi:

[radfringe]

16. good morning with a k&r

[phrigndumass]

24. Thanks, rad :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[radfringe]

30. enjoy

[Demeter]

34. Pretty Gruesome, RadFringe

Good for the Halloween season.

[phrigndumass]

35. LOL! Priceless!

That's right on the nose for this week, isn't it? :rofl:

[radfringe]

38. kinda wishing the election was on 11/15

then this would be the ides of november... more fitting...

ahhh-well maybe we just have to happy with the Witch of November?

[phrigndumass]

42. ROFL

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

You are soooo talented, rad!

[radfringe]

55. thanks.. a few others you may or may not have seen

[goclark]

21. K and R for five more days

:bounce"

Should I worry about the leaning info in your post?

I have not been able to sleep I get so worried.
DU is my only place for CALM

[phrigndumass]

26. Woohoo! Almost there :)

I wouldn't worry about the leaners ... Obama can win the election without winning any of the leaner states :D

:donut: Good morning, goclark! :hi:

[goclark]

33. Thanks for helping me stay sane

Five more days of your masterful work for us!

:hug:

Thanks Dr.phrigndumass

[phrigndumass]

37. ...

:hug: :)

[a kennedy]

27. Thank you phrigndumass

Your graphs are my life blood these days.....just a few more to go. What's up with MN?? D*mn, hope Al can pull this baby off. You're the best P. :hug:

[phrigndumass]

31. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Al Franken, too :)

It's definitely close ... some polls have him up and some have him down. We'll need something to worry about after Obama wins at 9:00 Eastern on election night, so the Franken race could be it :D

:hug: Good morning! :hi:

[goclark]

49. Al has got to win it!

And that Libby Dole has got to rake a long rest.

[Kukesa]

28. Phrig, how many points does it take to move a state from

"Lean," to "Weak," to "Strong?"

:think:

[phrigndumass]

32. 0 to 3.9 is Lean; 4 to 9.9 is Weak; 10 or greater is Strong :)

Did I wish you a Good Morning yet? lol, I think I missed you ... :donut: Good morning, Kukesa! :hi:

[Kukesa]

40. Thank you kindly, and I'll accept your good morning greeting. n/t

[dccrossman]

36. Excellent work, as always

These posts have become like my morning coffee.

What the hell am I going to do on November 5th. Withdrawal is going to suck.

[phrigndumass]

39. November 5th ... sleep in! :)

Thanks, dc :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

41. Good morning!

A special Saturday edition of the widget! :woohoo: and other weekend goodies! :yourock:






:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

44. Gives me a chance to say Hi to you and LMD tomorrow :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[Lochloosa]

43. Good Morning phrigndumass

PennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvania

[phrigndumass]

47. lol, subliminal messaging :)

:donut: Good morning, Lochloosa! :hi:

[mmonk]

45. .

:-)

:donut:

[phrigndumass]

48. .

:hug:

[SIMPLYB1980]

46. Morning Phring, and K&R!

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

50. Morning to you :)

Thanks! :hi:

[Smuckies]

51. Good morning..

Thanks :9

Hopefully we can sneak in Indiana...that would be great! Maybe we can make SC competitive :)

[phrigndumass]

52. Indiana still has time to come back to us :)

At the moment we're just "separated" so we may reconcile before Tuesday, lol

:donut: Good morning, Smuckies! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

53. Off to work kick

:kick: Happy Halloween!

[myrna minx]

54. Good morning! Have a great day.

:kick: :loveya:

[grantcart]

57. So Clifford can find the widget

[cliffordu]

59. Always thinking of me.....Thanks man!!

:rofl:

[grantcart]

60. Until I can get the backward C tattoo removed its on my mind every time I look in the mirror

[cliffordu]

61. lol....

:rofl:


:bounce:

[cliffordu]

58. I asked for this in an OP just a minute ago!!!!!

You're the best, Phrig!!!

Thanks!!! K&R

[CADEMOCRAT7]

63. 2.5 million new votes every day for McSame, impossible ?

Good afternoon, sending you home made quiche for lunch from the west coast for all your hard work. I do not know where McSame could get those votes, it is inconceivable, correct ? I will get up extra early this weekend so I can have time for your weekend analysis. THIS IS SO EXCITING !!!! Enjoy the quiche !