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Just released CBS NYT Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:34 PM
Original message
Just released CBS NYT Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41
Polls are basically showing Obama's lead staying at 6-7% or growing



Poll: Obama Maintains Comfortable Lead



CBS) With less than one week until Election Day, Barack Obama maintains a clear lead over John McCain in the presidential race, a new CBS News/New York Times poll suggests. The Democratic nominee now leads his Republican rival by 11 percentage points, 52 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters nationwide.

A small percentage of these voters could still switch sides: The figures include both firm supporters of each candidate and those who lean towards one or the other but have not fully committed. These so-called leaners, however, make up less than 10 percent of each candidate's support, a sign that significant movement in the campaign's final days is not likely. Just five percent of the likely voters surveyed remain completely undecided.

Seventeen percent of registered voters say they have already voted, either by absentee ballot or at early voting sites, and this group favors Obama by a large margin. The 13 percent of registered voters casting ballots for the first time favor Obama over McCain by two-to-one.

Intense feelings surround the prospect of either candidate being elected. Fifty-seven percent of likely McCain voters say they are scared about Obama becoming president, while 47 percent of Obama voters are scared of a McCain presidency.





Crosstabs here http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08e-all.pdf


Barack Obama has reached key thresholds with voters when it comes to overcoming some of his perceived weaknesses: more than half say he is prepared for the job, and nearly half are confident in his ability to handle an international crisis. Most voters expect the Democratic nominee to reach across the aisle, and say he understands and cares about them. And Obama benefits from a surge in early voting and first time voters.



All of the crosstabs are pulling well for Obama whether it is likeability, ability to handle the economy or selection of a Vice President, and point to undecideds breaking favorbly for Obama.

This breakdown was the most significant:

VOTE FOR PRESIDENT: DEMOGRAPHICS (Among likely voters including leaners)
. . . . . . . . . .Obama . . . . . . McCain

All . . . . . . . . . 52% . . . . . . . . 41

Men . . . . . . . . . 50% . . . . . . . . 43

Women . . . . . . . . 54% . . . . . . . . 40

Republicans . . . . . 10% . . . . . . . . 85

Democrats . . . . . . 86% . . . . . . . . 9

Independents . . . . 54% . . . . . . . . 37

Liberal . . . . . . . 92% . . . . . . . . 6

Moderate . . . . . . 56% . . . . . . . . 38

Conservative . . . . 20% . . . . . . . . 71



Obama has an 18% advantage on moderates and is pulling 20% of the conservative demographic




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rzemanfl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. I hope the McCain supporter stay scared for 8 long years, the
fuckers. I think that the 47% of Obama supporters that are scared of a McCain presidency reflects the fact that most of us think Gramps and Gidget won't win, otherwise it would be 100%.
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:40 PM
Response to Original message
2. Women..... 54-40. assuming that holds, game over
Edited on Thu Oct-30-08 06:40 PM by Motown_Johnny
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sarahdemva Donating Member (265 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. GREAT NEWS!!
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. FUCK PAT BUCHANAN'S FAKE HORSERACE......K&R!!!
Nice work GC!!!
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. well come on he doesn't even believe that dribel
as Tweety said the other day - Its Buchanan's role to represent a completely discredited point of view.

a girl has to do what a girl has to do.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. lol
:rofl:
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #4
12. ROFL!!!!!
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Rosa Luxemburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:45 PM
Response to Original message
5. we have to work harder to make it 65% - yes we can!
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desktop Donating Member (263 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:50 PM
Response to Original message
7. I would prefer the poll stay closer, Obama people need to stay scared
We need every possible person voting. The last thing we need is some complacent voters deciding Obama has it won and no need for them to bother voting. Also it does no good to have a 12 point lead if all those people are in blue states.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 07:03 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. go to GDP you will find plenty of fear to tide you over to election day
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senseandsensibility Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:52 PM
Response to Original message
8. Will this or anything stop the narrowing meme?
:shrug:
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crossroads Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
9. Good news... thanks! k&r
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Youphemism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 06:57 PM
Response to Original message
11. I saw this poll... First time I've ever seen a poll not quote the delta from the last poll...

Did I just miss it? I'm pretty darned sure these numbers are better for Obama than the last CBS/NYT poll, but there are so many of 'em out there I can't remember.

The polls vary erraticly... I like to compare apples to apples, looking at the last number from that poll to establish the trend.

Why doesn't this poll mention the change from the last poll? Am I overlooking it in their five pages of description, or did they just screw up?
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. one week ago it was 52-39
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FVZA_Colonel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Even still, he'd have to lose over 2 points per day for McCain to be tied.
At this point I just don't think he can close the gap in terms of the numbers, or popular support.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. he isn't losing == for a national campaign in the closing days the
numbers are surprisingly solid.
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FVZA_Colonel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
18. Self-Delete.
Edited on Thu Oct-30-08 07:13 PM by FVZA_Colonel
Double Post.
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JimGinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
15. Thanks
K&R
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 01:31 AM
Response to Reply #15
23. welcome
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 07:08 PM
Response to Original message
16. Harder to steal this one, with this much of a lead. We hope. n/t
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blitzburgh55 Donating Member (320 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
19. Here's more from the poll, re: negative ads
Nine in 10 voters have seen some of the television commercials for both candidates this year, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. But, the voters surveyed have received different messages from the two campaigns.

Twenty percent of voters who watched Mr. McCains broadcast advertising said most of the commercials explained what the Republican candidate stood for, but 64 percent said most of the advertising dollars were used to attack Mr. Obama.

In contrast, half the voters who viewed Mr. Obamas television commercials said most of the ads made it clear what Mr. Obama stood for, and only 30 percent said most Obama ads attacked Mr. McCain.

While most Democrats described the tone of Mr. Obamas advertising as positive and Mr. McCains as negative, Republicans were more likely to say both campaigns were negative. The plurality of the Republican voters surveyed, 45 percent, said the ads on behalf of Mr. McCain attacked Mr.
Obama. At the same time, 48 percent of Republican voters said Mr. Obamas ads attacked Mr. McCain.

And almost half of independent voters, 48 percent, described the tone of the commercials broadcast for Mr. Obama as positive, while 64 percent said Mr. McCains were negative.

The Obama campaign has spent over $200 million and the campaign of John McCain has spent about $120 million for television advertising, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising expenditures. Additionally, about $100 million has been spent by the national parties, unions, and other organizations on
behalf of the candidates.

The Times/CBS News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 25-29 with 1,308 registered voters nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. More results from this survey will be released later this evening.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/nytimescb...
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 10:42 PM
Response to Original message
21. Great numbers! 52% is a winner no matter what the undecideds do.
McCain is toast! Cheers!
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Blondiegrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 10:44 PM
Response to Original message
22. Let the fuckers be scared. At least with Obama's health plan they can
afford insurance for when they're hospitalized with their hate-induced coronaries.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. lol
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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 03:35 AM
Response to Original message
25. K & R!
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Laelth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
26. k&r for very good news. n/t
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
27. but Zogby...
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crossroads Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
28. K&R for the nervous nellies here!
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 09:45 PM
Response to Original message
29. Kicked again
fuck Zogby
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bdamomma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 09:47 PM
Response to Original message
30. kick
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