NC-Sen: Three Very Different Polls

[ccharles000]

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3763



Rasmussen (10/29, likely voters, 10/8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 52 (49)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46 (44)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Rasmussen looks very good for Kay Hagan in the North Carolina senate race: six is the biggest lead she's had in a Rasmussen poll, and there aren't enough undecideds left for Dole to close the gap. Hagan's favorables continue to climb (53-42) while Dole's slide (46-50). The sample was taken yesterday, so it's unclear whether the flap over the 'godless' ad had an effect one way or the other.

Mason-Dixon (10/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):


Kay Hagan (D): 42
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Mason-Dixon also gives Dole 46, but that's where the similarity stops. They say Hagan trails by 4, with lots of undecideds still on the table. Note the dates on this poll... this is part of the same plate of stale cookies as that Georgia poll that Mason-Dixon apparently sat on for a week. Oddly, despite Mason-Dixon's focus on the south, this is their first poll of this race, and it's the first poll by anyone in almost a month to give the edge to Dole.

UPDATE: One more North Carolina poll to throw on the heap, this time from National Journal. This one seems to confirm Rasmussen, right down to the 6-point spread.

National Journal (10/23-27, likely voters, no trendlines):


Kay Hagan (D): 43
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 37
(MoE: ±4.9%)

[terrya]

1. I think Dole's ad will backfire. I think Hagan will pull this out.

Obama will have coattails in North Carolina.

[LiberalinNC]

2. Hagan's put out a counter ad to Libby's horrible ad...I think Hagan may pull this one off!!!

Won't it be funny when Hagan take Jess Helm's old seat!!!

[Schulzz]

3. Another strange Mason-Dixon poll.

- they had Michigan tied, then McCain pulled out
- their VA poll last week was closer than others
- their PA poll today, again was much closer than others

I don't know if that's really just coincedence? :shrug: