The Daily Widget, Wed 10/29 – O-381, M-157 – Florida, Ohio Seeing Daylight; Mississippi Weak

[phrigndumass]

Latest Voter Registration Totals
Latest Early Voting Results
Latest Swing State Graphs
Latest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs


1. ANALYSIS

Twenty-four new state polls were released yesterday, giving Barack Obama a record of 17-7 for the day. Eighteen of the states polled are swing states, 2 are blue states and 4 are red states. The most interesting of the bunch is the Insider Advantage poll for Georgia, showing Obama trailing by only one point.

Mississippi is also tightening, as Rasmussen shows John McCain’s lead there dropping to single digits, moving it from the Strong McCain to the Weak McCain column today. Meanwhile, McCain’s lead is widening again in Arizona, with a new poll there showing him leading by 8 points. Arizona moves from the Lean McCain to the Weak McCain column today.

There was no change in the popular vote margin from yesterday, but McCain’s battle is still going uphill as the clock runs out. He now needs to find 1,802,566 votes every day between now and Election Day to catch up to Obama.





New polls for Florida and Ohio show Obama’s lead expanding, and these two states are now seeing some daylight away from edge-of-seat territory (+/- 3). Obama’s lead in Florida widens by 0.7 points to +3.1 today, and Ohio holds for a sixth straight day beyond +5 (now Obama +6.3).









2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Arizona Obama 41, McCain 49 (Northern AZ Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Arkansas Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 53, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 636 LV)
Florida Obama 49.2, McCain 44.4 (Datamar, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 630 LV)
Florida Obama 50, McCain 43 (LA Times/Bloomberg, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 639 LV)
Georgia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/27, +/- 3.8, 637 LV)
Indiana Obama 45, McCain 47 (Howey-Gauge, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Louisiana Obama 38.3, McCain 50.6 (Southeast LA Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 503 LV)
Maine Obama 54, McCain 33 (Market Decisions, 10/20, +/- 5.0, 425 LV)
Mississippi Obama 45, McCain 53 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Montana Obama 44, McCain 48 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 40 (Suffolk University, 10/27, +/- 4.9, 450 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 39 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 55, McCain 39 (University of NH, 10/25, +/- 3.8, 692 LV)
New Jersey Obama 53, McCain 38 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/27, +/- 3.9, 648 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 40 (LA Times/Bloomberg, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 644 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 42 (Insider Advantage, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 588 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 39 (Roanoke College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 614 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 50, McCain 41 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


.

[tekisui]

1. KNR!

Good morning, phrign!

Thank you Ohio, for coming to the light.

[phrigndumass]

3. I wonder if McCain will win *any* swing states :)

Right now Georgia is the only state polling with a McCain lead. Ohio helps!

Good morning, tek!

[unapatriciated]

5. Good Morning All and....

yeah GA. We are on the ground and getting out the vote. I will heading to my local Obama headquarters in about an hour to make some more calls or whatever else they need me to do.

[phrigndumass]

6. Thanks for working in Georgia!

Good morning!

[unapatriciated]

13. It's been a pleasure to do so...

I spoke with a 83 yr young woman yesterday who hasn't voted in decades largely due to her disabilities. She wants to vote and is still eligible.
I'm going to volunteer today to get her to the polls. She lives about 50 miles north of us, but hubby and I think it would be one of the most enjoyable thing we have done in this election since casting our votes for O last week.

[phrigndumass]

16. Doesn't the work seem easier when we're leading? :)

Imagine if we were down and you made that 50-mile trip.

Good on ya!

[unapatriciated]

23. I so enjoyed talking with her and she reminded me of my mom....

who I miss very much since our move to GA from CA two years ago.
But this is the reason it made it so important to me that she be able to cast her vote.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

got to run there is so much work and very little time.

[mucifer]

2. Thanks Phrig! and good morning!

[phrigndumass]

4. yw, mucifer :)

Good morning!

[jakem]

7. Go Go Go!

[phrigndumass]

10. Nice graph!

Let's animate it and give it a glass-breaking sound, lol

Good morning, jakem!

[a kennedy]

8. Thank you P

still holding my breath.

[phrigndumass]

12. That's what makes us blue :)

Breathe ... we want to see Obama win!

Good morning!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. Chill the Dom Perignon Phrig !! k&r

[phrigndumass]

14. Can you smell the goose cooking? :)

Dom goes great with goose.

Good morning, dear

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. I like it better with pheasant under glass :

[Blondiegrrl]

11. Thanks, Phrig. Ohio is looking good! n/t

[phrigndumass]

15. yw :)

Good morning, Blondiegrrl!

[agentS]

17. So far so good

Your numbers always seem higher to me than the other sites.
At any rate 538.com reported about high early voting numbers and extremely high AA turnout in GA, LA, and NC. So I think you are being accurate in putting GA in the Weak category, though dare I say it, it may actually be +1 McCain or +1 Obama when it's all said and done come Nov. 5th.

[phrigndumass]

21. They seem higher to me as well :)

I'm a bit less conservative with the numbers, though. EV.com uses ties or toss-ups, but there will be no ties on election day. 538.com is projecting the results on election day, yet mine is a snapshot of yesterday's polls and the current standing. I'm a 538.com fan, so it's neat to see the trend line on my electoral vote graph ending up on Nate's projected outcome.

Georgia may be a late-nighter!

Good morning!

[gademocrat7]

18. Good morning, Mr. P.

Good news for Georgia...needed some good news...one of my Jack Russell's was attacked by a coyote Sunday evening. In critical condition at UGA vet hospital.

[phrigndumass]

24. Aw, that's sad :(

Frasier-dogs can be feisty! I hope he gave the coyote a good lickin' ... seems he was protecting you

Wishing your pooch a speedy recovery ...

Good morning!

[zbdent]

19. I will believe Ohio when I see it ...

[phrigndumass]

25. okay :)

[fight4my3sons]

20. Good morning!

Hope you have a wonderful day!

[phrigndumass]

26. Ditto :)

Good morning!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

22. I think Obama is ONLY worrying about Mandate now - good thinking!

[phrigndumass]

27. The republicans are already setting the bar really high for a mandate, lol

Funny thing, though, I think Obama will vault over the bar with air to spare

[myrna minx]

29. Good morning dear.

Seven very long days to go. Oy.

[phrigndumass]

30. Seven days, then four-plus years of progress!

Good morning!

[Kukesa]

31. McCain needs 1,802,566 new votes every day to catch up?

phrig, you're the only pollster/statistician who puts all these numbers into something a math dummy like I can understand.

My gratitude!

[phrigndumass]

36. This is why I'm confident Obama will win on Tuesday :)

It's theft-proof, unless the republicans are very stupid. The state polls aren't seeing the same tightening that the national polls are showing, and as we know, the states decide who wins.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

32. AZ @ -4.8!

[phrigndumass]

37. It'll be closer in tomorrow's post :)

New poll today shows McCain leading by only 2 points in AZ.

[dbmk]

33. Learning to love the new Huck index, phrig :) K&R

Damn, this is getting close. Timewise that is.

Been listening to The Rising with Springsteen 20 times in a row - alleviates some of the tension.
On for replay 21 now.

[phrigndumass]

38. Never gets old, does it?

Springsteen, that is ...

Are you thinking about making projections for election day? Hope so ... I wouldn't mind posting side-by-side your projections, grantcart's projections, and mine, and then show an average of all three.

Think it over

Thanks!

[dbmk]

43. Would love to

But I really would not know where to start. And timewise I am a bit swamped these days.

Lots of unknowns in this equation.

[phrigndumass]

44. Understood about timewise :)

When I post the widget projections, I'll let everyone know you're predicting an Obama win.

My life goes back to "normal" on the 6th, lol ... after sleeping all day on the 5th

[dbmk]

45. Problem is

I could see a major rout happening. But on the other hand I could also see him dropping a few of his "fringe" states. And all depending on which that would be, we are looking at everywhere from 300 to 360.

Electoral vote has him at 364 atm with Indiana slightly blue. That is one state I don't think he will win. Would love to be surprised. and if NCs 15 also slips out we are looking at 339. Lets say two of VA, FL and OH also drops out and we are looking at just under 300.

But if I am to have just a little faith in the polling industry, then I'd say that we have a relatively hard floor at 310.

Which by extention means that I think McCain will have problems getting past 230. I simply cannot see him making 270 atm. But he is not quite hucked yet, so things can happen.

If Obama avoids looking like a fool tonight (which should be hard to do in a prerecorded message - and in general for that matter) they will be talking about it until the weekend. Unless McCain suspends his campaign to save his campaign tomorrow that is. Either way I can't see McCain breaking through succesfully this side of the weekend.
And in that case I can't see the polls shift drastically.

If the youth vote and GOTV in general performs like its seems it might, wee might a few surprises in Obamas favour. 390 is probably his ceiling, though.
If you force me to guess: 353. Ev.coms current map minus IN. Right now I would bet on him taking NC.

Of course there is the potential complete rout, if all they talk about over the weekend is how much Obama is winning by and not if. Then a _lot_ of red votes might not show up. They have had having enthusiasm problems from the start.
In that case only western Nebraska(and its statewides probably), Idaho, Utah and Oklahoma are safe for McCain.

And now I really need to get some actual work done.

[phrigndumass]

46. Nice! :)

Thanks for posting that. btw ... I have re-read your North Carolina and Indiana posts from the primary several times. Your posts will be on my mind when I'm projectifyin'

[goclark]

34. This brings sunshine to my day --

Keep those numbers coming!

Thank you for keeping me sane.

[phrigndumass]

39. Makes me feel good, too :)

[grantcart]

35. Georgia -- very strong AA vote in early voting is going to give Obama

a head start on election day - McCain is going to have to have a good ground game to catch up.

AA population in GA 30% AA early voting 35%.


If you add the hispanic vote in and these numbers hold and you assume that Obama gets 95% of that vote

that would mean Obama would only need 25% of the white vote.

Georgia is going Blue.

[phrigndumass]

40. Latino vote is currently trending 60% to 32% nationwide

It's gone down a bit for Obama. But it's mostly Florida that is causing Obama's decline among Hispanic voters. He's up everywhere else among that demographic.

Do you plan on projecting state outcomes for the election? I wouldn't mind showing your projection alongside dbmk's and mine, and an average of the three in a special post.

Think it over

[DavidDvorkin]

41. We don't need Arizona, but it would be so satisfying if Obama won it.

[phrigndumass]

42. I second that :)

Especially since both McCain and Palin will be in Arizona on election night. We could take it from them right under their noses, lol

[DavidDvorkin]

49. So sweet!

[OmahaBlueDog]

47. Hello, Mr PDA

One. Another bit of fine work

Two. I asked a question two daily widgets ago, so I'll repeat it today, as I'm still interested in your take.

Today's stupid question is based on an article from Salon that I posted.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/27/undecid ...

<<Before we begin, I should say I'm not going to advance any theories for why voters do what they do, or why they may mislead pollsters. MIT professor Adam Berinsky thinks that some survey respondents, when asked racially charged questions, answer "I don't know" to conceal opinions they think are unpopular. Me, I'm only going to talk about math.

In Ohio in 2006, black Republican Ken Blackwell ran against white Democrat Ted Strickland for governor. On Nov. 6, the day before the election, Survey USA released a poll showing Strickland with 55 percent, Blackwell with 38 percent, two independents with a combined 3 percent and 4 percent undecided. On Election Day the actual results were Strickland 60.4 percent, Blackwell 36.8 percent and a combined 2.8 percent for the independents. For Blackwell, what he got was just a little less than what he saw.

In Maryland, black Republican Michael Steele and white Democrat Ben Cardin were vying for the Senate seat long held by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. During the week before balloting, the polls were fairly static. Steele wobbled between 43 and 47 percent in surveys from four different companies. Cardin's total ranged from 47 to 49 percent. Depending on methodology, undecideds accounted for 2 to 7 percent of the sample. The day before the election, a final poll from Survey USA put Cardin at 49 percent and Steele at 47. On Nov. 7, Cardin won with 54.2 percent of the vote. Steele got only 44.2. For Steele, like Blackwell, what he got was less than what he saw. Apparently, Cardin got virtually all the undecideds.

How about Tennessee, where black Democrat Harold Ford was up against white Republican Bob Corker for Republican Bill Frist's old U.S. Senate seat? Harold Ford did slightly better than Steele and Blackwell. The day before the election, he was within a point of Corker, 47 to 48 with 5 percent undecided, according to OnPoint Polling. On Nov. 7, Corker got 50.7 percent of the vote, Ford got 48 and an assortment of independents took 1.3 percent. Ford was able to pick up one out of every five undecided voters.

In deep blue Massachusetts, white Republican Kerry Healey lost badly to black Democrat Deval Patrick in the race to succeed Mitt Romney as governor. But Healey, who had been Romney's lieutenant governor, outperformed her polling. In the three weeks prior to the election Healey peaked at 31 percent in five polls that allowed respondents to choose "undecided." In those same five polls, Patrick averaged 53.4 percent. The number of undecideds ranged from 4 to 11 percent. On Election Day, Healey got 35.33 percent of the vote. Patrick got 55.64. Healey had added more than 4 points to her pre-election poll total, twice as big as Patrick's increase.

A skeptic could point out that Healey may have been drawing more heavily than Patrick from the relatively large pool of survey respondents who claimed they would be supporting an independent. But a Republican, like me, might point out that there does appear to be a pattern in these four races from just two years ago. And, in the case of Ohio, there was another poll with a different methodology and different results that seemed to confirm that pattern. The University of Cincinnati conducted a poll the day before the gubernatorial election that did not include undecideds. Respondents who initially answered "I don't know" were pushed to reveal which way they were leaning. All respondents were assigned to a candidate.>>

Basically, the author asserts that undecided voters will break for McSame on a 2-1 to 4-1 basis based on what I consider to be thin evidence (asserted above). Do you have any opinion on the opinions of the analysis presented in the article? (I'll add that a Dick Morris article found on RCP says essentially the same thing).

[phrigndumass]

48. Oops, did my reply two widgets ago not post?

I remember having difficulty with the post button on that reply. Anyhoo, here's the cut and paste, for some reason I can still see the reply ...

* * * *

The one thing that can screw up a good election forecasting model is making incorrect assumptions about how the undecided voters might split. I'm hoping I don't screw mine up!

The thing to remember, though, is that the election is won by electoral votes and projecting how the undecideds will vote really only matters in the states that are close, or the states where the split between the candidates is less than the total of undecideds.

Knowing which states these are is the most important part of projecting undecideds, because the stories from these states' past election cycles can provide good material for making good assumptions. There is no one assumption that is correct, no "one size fits all" in my opinion that can be applied to all the states, and every election year it's different.

Making good assumptions about the third party candidates in each state is also very helpful, because it helps us see the true difference between the major candidates' standing in each state.

The writer of the article is making a sweeping assumption, and history has shown that to be a huge mistake. He's looking for low and away, but he's not watching out for in his ear.