Pennsylvania: Comparing current poll results vs. 2004 election (regions/counties)

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

Okay, as a PA resident I had some selfish interest in this exercise. With all the candidate visits, the stated strategy by the McCain campaign to "flip" PA, and Gov. Rendell's frequent statements about the race being closer than the polls, I decided to do a little digging. I found two recent PA polls that showed what the breakdown is by regions/counties.

There are some areas to watch. Philadelphia turnout needs to exceed 2004 to offset some of the current poll lag in the southwest "Kerry counties of 2004".

First the good news. It looks like Obama is doing a bit better in the counties surrounding Philadelphia but I did not list them in this post...you can check them at the links if you wish.

Obama is beating Kerry's percentage in the largest county of Philadelphia:

Philadelphia 2004
Kerry 80.4% 542,205
Bush 19.3% 130,099
Other 0.3% 1,765

Philadelphia 2008
October 27, 2008
The Temple Poll
Obama 86%
McCain 12%
Unsure 2%

Quinnipiac University
October 23, 2008
Obama 82%
McCain 17%
Unsure 1%



OK, now here is where the GOP is getting the idea they can pull out a PA win. NOTE: It is hard to know exactly which counties pollsters include in a "region" but here's a rough comparison.

Allegheny (includes city of Pittsburgh)and
Kerry 57.2% 368,912
Bush 42.1% 271,925
Other 0.7% 4,632

surrounding southwest region 2004

Beaver
Kerry 51.1% 42,146
Bush 48.4% 39,916
Other 0.6% 481

Washington
Kerry 50.1% 48,225
Bush 49.6% 47,673
Other 0.3% 279

Fayette
Kerry 53.2% 29,120
Bush 45.8% 25,045
Other 1.0% 542

Allegheny and SW region 2008

October 27, 2008
The Temple Poll

Allegheny County
Obama 49%
McCain 47%
Unsure 4%

SW Region
Southwest
Obama 47%
McCain 44%
Unsure 7%

Quinnipiac University
October 23, 2008

Allegheny
Obama 54%
McCain 39%
Unsure 2%

SW Region
Obama 41%
McCain 51%
Unsure 2%

http://www.citypaper.net/blogs/clog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/temple-poll-october-27-2008-press-release-and-topline-results1.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2004&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[TheDonkey]

1. I really hope Western PA does not fail the country.

:(

[mzmolly]

15. PA will not fail us, but the hackable machines might?

McCain is down an average of 11 points in PA according to the polls:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php

Yet his campaign implies that the race is close in PA?

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/28/in-memo-mccains-top-pollster-sees-tighter-race/#more-6546

PA is one of the few swing states without a verified paper trail.

http://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&ec=allall&year=2008&state=Pennsylvania

So tell me why McCain is more worried about Ohio than he is PA?

I suggest it may be due to the fact that Ohio has a paper trail?

http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/08-oh-pres-ge-mvo.php

Are they getting ready to steal PA? :(

[iceman66]

2. Some of those numbers are indeed troubling.

What is your gut feeling as a PA resident? Should we be concerned?

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

4. Well, some on DU think Rendell is just being an attention-whore. I do not.

I believe that GOTV in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh is absolutely essential to trump the idiot votes. This is not a new strategy for PA but the numbers MUST exceed 2004 for these areas.

Also, my phone banking has revealed a new anomaly for PA in Allegheny County: Wealthier (educated) suburbs are leaning Obama while ethnic city neighborhoods aren't showing the percentages usually present for a Democrat. Racism?

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I think he is.

Obama is probably not up 10-15 points there, but I do believe he'll win the state by 5-7 points.

[iceman66]

8. Do you think McCain's constant presence there

is having any effect?

What is the coverage like in the local media?

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

14. Obama got GREAT coverage in Pittsburgh yesterday with his rally.

Unfortunately, Caribou Barbie is also getting covered for all her frequent rallies.

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. Well, at least he's in the lead in everything but the SW Quinnipiac poll.

However narrow the lead may be.

[iceman66]

6. You have to consider that there are also rural counties not shown here

where McCain would have a significant lead.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

7. Yes, but they also went for Bush. They always go Repub so that's no change.

My interest was in the change from 2004 to 2008 polling by region.

[iceman66]

10. Bottom line

do you really think McCain has a shot at winning PA?

[Drunken Irishman]

11. If there were two more weeks left, McCain may have a shot at PA.

However, if there were some hidden votes out there, they would have shown up in some poll, but they haven't. Every poll has put PA out of reach. If it were one or two polls that had Obama up big, while the rest had it a 2-3 point race, then I would concede it's very possible McCain win, but it doesn't look that way.

[FVZA_Colonel]

9. That is true.

But, given the attention Pennsylvania has been getting, I'm sure the entirety of the state has been sampled in some way or another. I think if there really were serious problems, the broad-based polls might be showing something (but there is always the "Bradley Effect...")

[bklyngrl60]

12. Since you brought it up - here's my concern about PA and Philadelphia

I'm *very* concerned about the lines and the time it's going to take the historic number of voters to vote. I fear that the necessary voters in Philadelphia will get discouraged and give up before they actually have the opportunity to vote. I'm also very concerned about just the volume of people who will be attempting to vote and how that's going to ultimately work out.

I dont know much about the Pittsburgh dynamic (I live in South Jersey).

But if it's going to boil down to rural/suburban voters who will have easier access to voting i.e. fewer people, more polling places vs discouraged urban voters. Again, I'm concerned.

On the other hand - Kerry & Gore won PA but not anywhere near the margins based on Obama's polling - as you see in the OP - so there's some wiggle room.

But here's the thing - Obama, Plouffe & Axelrod have already thought of this - and there a few alternative roads - so honestly, we don't really need PA. I personally think Ohio & Florida are looking VERY good - love early voting!!!! Plus both these areas have minority populations in suburban & rural communities - not fighting the same dynamic as PA.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

13. gawd, I wish we had early voting in PA. I just hope Rendell has addressed the wait issue.

Hope there are lots of machines and lots of voting sites in the urban areas.

[bklyngrl60]

16. Well, if it makes you feel any better. I sent him an email. :)

I have to look at a map - but I think FL & VA (or OH & VA - or any combo of these) can work as well. The issue is - McCain only has *one* road and it HAS to include PA - he just doesn't have the resources.

On the brighter side - I was more concerned that O's 1/2 hour spot (or 22 minute whatever) was going to impact a the baseball game. My DH told me tomorrow night's game will start with the 6th inning that was rained out on Monday and from what I read, the actual inning won't start until AFTER the airing. So all is good on that end. I had a terrible image of Philly & Tampa Bay fans (could things get any weirder?) throwing things at the TV on the start of a game 6, yk?