Allow me to preempt Drudge right now. SHOCK POLL: Zogby Obama 48.9 McCain 45.4!!!

[SeeHopeWin]

I am just saying...:sarcasm:

[MadBadger]

1. So for clarification, those arent the numbers, right?

or are they?

[SeeHopeWin]

6. Right...

[HughMoran]

8. Wow

You're really playing with fire ya know - though you may be right on!

[Bucky]

13. Thanks for your Concern troll. Sheesh, when will you negative types give it up?

Sarcasm smily added for the benefit of stupid people. :sarcasm:

[MadBadger]

14. If I hadnt been so goddamn Mean to Conern Trolls today, I wouldnt have gotten the sarcasm...lol

[Overseas]

2. They were promising something special.

So true to their word, they've excited McZombie with their present.

[tedoll78]

3. Umm.. are these real?

?

[Mark E. Smith]

4. Zogby and his pay to play poll

What a useless arse.

[FVZA_Colonel]

5. Down .5 for Obama, up .4 for McCain?

For Zogby that's not that special.

[SeeHopeWin]

7. These are not real numbers...I am making fun of her....nt

[MadBadger]

10. Fun of her?

[FVZA_Colonel]

19. Oh, I had a feeling they were fake.

But at the same time they seemed plausible, so I just went with it. My bad.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama gains some footing tonight in Zogby's poll.

I'll go with 49.7 to McCain's 44.9.

[Curtland1015]

11. Haw! But yeah. I expect us to gain some ground back tomorrow and thursday.

Yup yup.

[Schulzz]

12. For those who still think Zogby is a great pollster, look at these state "polls" from Sept. 13

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1549

And compare them to the polls today.

[speedoo]

15. Nate of fivethirtyeight.com on Zogby:

"There is one very, very significant concern with Zogby, which is that he has a longstanding rule to set his party weightings based on the exit polls from the most recent election. In this case, that means 2004, when a roughly equal number of Democrats and Republicans turned out. However, according to essentially every available poll, Democrats now have somewhere between a 5-point and a 10-point advantage in party ID.

This particular procedure has bitten Zogby in the ass before. Between 2000 and 2004, there was a shift in party ID toward the Republicans; as a result, Zogby's numbers were 2-3 points high for Kerry across battleground states.

To the extent that Obama is leading in a Zogby poll, that means essentially that he'd have won the election given 2004 turnout dynamics. 2008 turnout dynamics are liable to be sigificantly more favorable to him. With that said, the relationship between Zogby's odd party ID weightings and his toplines is probably not quite 1:1, since he is weighting based not just on party ID but also a number of other factors. My guess is, for instance, that one reason that Obama always seems to do strongly in Zogby among independents is that Zogby is essentially squeezing Obama-friendly demographic groups out of his Democratic pile and erroneously classifying them as indies."

I could care less what Zogby says. His polls suck.

[SeeHopeWin]

16. I guess no news from her (Drudge) is good news?

[HughMoran]

17. lol - maybe

we'll see...

[anneboleyn]

18. Drudge is that annoying kid who would write everyone's names on the board

in junior high, even when they weren't talking or otherwise misbehaving. Drudge = boy who cried wolf far too many times to be remotely credible (Ashley Todd, anyone?)

[lolamio]

20. I've noticed that on days where Zogby's number has tightened, Drudge has the leaked poll...

Not tonight, though. Just saying...

[Thrill]

21. He's not teasing it tonight. So its likely not good news for McCain