SUSA: Obama leads McCain 49-45 in Ohio (leads by 17-points among early voters)

[WI_DEM]

Ohio's Early Voters Give Obama A Running Head Start in Buckeye State: John McCain and Barack Obama are tied at 47% each in Ohio, among voters who have not yet cast a ballot, but who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to do so on or before election day. But, among those in Ohio who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Barack Obama leads by 17 points. When the two populations are combined, the data is as here reported: Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Research sponsored by WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland and WHIO-TV Dayton. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, Obama is down 1 point; McCain is flat.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8247ab3a-7593-421d-8100-61e6e00ebc0b

[KurtNYC]

1. Have any of the spinning pundits even attempted to explain why early voting

would lean so heavily in one direction (and yet, supposedly the overall numbers are closer together)? I don't see anything to prevent McCain supporters from voting early in proportion to their numbers.

[Marsala]

2. Enthusiasm

Obama supporters have a big enthusiasm advantage. McCain supporters aren't as enthusiastic, thus they are more likely to wait... though they may not vote at all.

[yardwork]

3. I think you're right.

[WI_DEM]

4. Yes, and if McCain's people arent enthused then some will also stay home on election day.