The Daily Widget, Tues 10/28 – O-381, M-157 – Three States Tighten; Nevada Stronger

[phrigndumass]

Latest Voter Registration Totals
Latest Early Voting Results
Latest Swing State Graphs
Latest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs


1. ANALYSIS

Thirty-two new state polls were released yesterday: 25 for swing states, 4 for blue states and 3 for red states. Barack Obama’s record for these polls is 25-5-2. And Obama’s popular vote lead over John McCain continues to grow, up another 400,000 since yesterday. Obama now leads McCain by 10,824,459 likely votes with only seven days remaining until the election. McCain would need to earn 1,547,045 new votes every day between now and the election to catch up.





Only two states change columns today, both due to new Reuters/Zogby polls. Nevada moves to the left, from Lean Obama outside of the margin of error to the Weak Obama column today. And as expected, Indiana moves back into the margin of error, from Weak Obama to Lean Obama today.

Indiana isn’t alone among the swing states tightening since yesterday. Missouri was giving Obama a +1.0 lead yesterday, but 3 new polls cause his lead to slip a bit to +0.7 today. And North Carolina is also tightening, Obama +2.4 yesterday but down to Obama +1.3 today. We’ll keep a close eye on these states in the coming days, although they shouldn’t affect the outcome of the election, thanks to Virginia and Colorado voters.








(The Votemaster at Electoral-Vote.com must be sleeping in again today.)



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Arizona Obama 46, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 61, McCain 34 (Rasmussen, 10/25, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 46 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 44 (Suffolk University, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 47.2, McCain 46.9 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Indiana Obama 44.0, McCain 50.2 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 52, McCain 42 (Marist College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 645 LV)
Missouri Obama 48.2, McCain 45.7 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.9, 672 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Nevada Obama 48.2, McCain 44.0 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 655 LV)
New York Obama 62, McCain 31 (Siena College, 10/20, +/- 3.7, 721 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 47, Barr 1 (Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49.7, McCain 46.4 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 49 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48, Barr 1 (Public Policy Polling, 10/26, +/- 2.8, 1038 LV)
Ohio Obama 49.7, McCain 45.1 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34.8, McCain 61.6 (TvPoll.com, 10/25, +/- 3.5, 720 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 38 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 672 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 43 (Temple University, 10/23, +/- 3.6, 761 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 40 (VA Commonwealth Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 817 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 44 (Washington Post, 10/25, +/- 3.5, 784 LV)
Virginia Obama 52.0, McCain 44.8 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.9, 671 LV)
Washington Obama 55, McCain 34 (The Washington Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
West Virginia Obama 40.4, McCain 50.3 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


.

[mmonk]

1. Thanks phrigndumass.

Good morning to you.

[phrigndumass]

4. yw (I eat your donut)

Good morning!

[Lochloosa]

2. me love graphs....

[tekisui]

3. I'm digging the Huck Index.

The tightening in some states is ok. One third of the voters will have voted by Nov. 4th, so in a sense, every day is Election Day.

Over a million have now cast ballots in NC, compared with 3.5 million total in 2004. With 4 days left of Early Voting. And, turnout has been more than 2:1 Dems.

When we see these states tighten towards Election Day, we know Obama has a lot in the bank.

Best thing, though, is like you say VA and CO got our back. Obama has many paths to victory. mcPOW has many paths to a loss and one fantasy land path to a win.

Morning!

[knowledgeispwr]

6. I agree.

Obama may be building an insurmountable lead in NC. We'll just have to see what the final turnout is like.

[phrigndumass]

7. The Huck Index digs you :)

Poor guy, that McCain. Couldn't catch a break if it were handed to him with detailed plans for execution, lol

Early voting results are terrific! Let the republicans stand in line on Nov. 4

Good morning, tek!

[mucifer]

5. we just gotta hang on for 1 more week.

[phrigndumass]

8. Yes, it's all about the clock now, lol

The clock doesn't seem to like the republicans

Good morning!

[five_horizons]

9. Lookin' good!

Thanks as always for your hard work, Phrig. I always look forward to your posts.

[phrigndumass]

11. Thanks, 5H :)

Good morning!

[radfringe]

10. I know the polls are "tightening"

but my gut tells me there's an Obama tsunami that the polls aren't detecting.

maybe it's just wishful thinking, or Hope running away with my feelings... but, I didn't have the same level or intensity of optimism in 2000 or 2004...

[phrigndumass]

12. Yes, "the wave" :)

It's very possible that some states will wash upon our shores on election day. It could be a ripple, or it might even be a Deep Impact.

Fingers crossed!

Good morning, rad!

[Lifelong Protester]

13. Wow! you data muncher you!

Thanks so much for bringing us this. I am a chart reader, so I appreciate all you have put together here, and it makes me feel good. One keeps hearing "race tightening" and I get that tight feeling in my stomach, but your charts help undo some of the knots.

Just a week to go guys. And thank goodness for that early voting. Dang tootin', let the repubs stand in line for once.

[phrigndumass]

18. Happy to do it :)

It's better to have the full picture when someone uses the term "tightening", isn't it?

7 days left!

Good morning!

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

14. I'm thinking that about Thursday...

...after/if it begins to be obvious that the big "McCain rally" isn't happening, an opposite move may begin. After a bit of tightening today and Wednesday, the flow will reverse. Undecided voters will choose to be on the side of a new "history in the making," and will vote with their hopes more than their fears, and, as Obama says, with a bend toward "unity more than division." I think people are sick and tired and fed up with the ultra-partisan gridlock, and are ready for something far different. Just a hunch, but maybe it will begin with the "Obama prime-time show" tomorrow night.

[phrigndumass]

19. You may be right!

It's quite possible that many Undecided voters will see the McCain campaign as pandering to extremists, and they may want to give unity a chance.

Can't wait for the broadcast tomorrow night!

Good morning, UU!

[a kennedy]

15. I'm gonna hold my breath, chew my nails and canvas the neighborhood....

GOBAMA, GOBAMA GOBAMA I want it to be over and President Obama in the White House!!! Couldn't do it without you phrigndumass!! Thank you.

[phrigndumass]

21. If you have time, that's the best thing to do :)

We went to Missouri on Sunday and walked precincts for the Obama campaign. It'll be over soon enough

Good morning!

[fight4my3sons]

16. Good morning!

I like the New Huck Index!

My friend was voter number 253 in the small little fishing town of Phippsburg, ME on Oct 20th! (just shows how many people are voting early up here)

[phrigndumass]

23. I think there's 253 people in my whole precinct, lol

Phippsburg must be some sort of megacity

Good morning!

[mucifer]

17. damn! I guess I need to get my lazy ass back to Indiana this weekend.

[Kukesa]

20. I like the New Huckabee Index. Good Morning, phrig. n/t

[phrigndumass]

24. The New Huckabee Index likes you back :)

Good morning, Kukesa!

[frickaline]

22. k&r GO NC! n/t

[shellgame26]

25. This is the longest week of my life

but i got a good feeling it will end well.

[phrigndumass]

26. Same here! lol

It's like watching water come to a boil

It'll end well. Good morning!

[phrigndumass]

27. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day

[Sugarcoated]

28. Lookin' goood!

[grantcart]

29. Here is pollsters morning update

what is so remarkable is that the polls have become so stable 5 polls out from Missouri all show Obama at 48%.

8 of the 15 show Obama improving from the same pollster in the same state from earlier in the month

7 show McCain improving - AZ for example. Inidiana may be doubtful.


4 surveys from Florida show very similar results

5 show Obama winning Virginia handedly





Obama goes stronger



National polls remain unchanged

[phrigndumass]

30. Love it!

Seems we're on the same page with almost all those states. I like their table format, easy to read.

Virginia is Strong Dem now, and Georgia is a Toss-up

[goclark]

31. Thank you for bringing my blood pressure down

[phrigndumass]

32. :)

You can thank President-Elect Barack Obama for that

[Kukesa]

33. This wonderful post deserves another KICK! n/t

[Smuckies]

34. Thanks!

I was looking for this post.

[cliffordu]

35. Thanks, Phrig!!!!

Why does grantcart keep spilling red ink all over Obama's 17 ??

[phrigndumass]

36. That's not ink, it's blood :)

He's been sacrificin' caribou again, lol

[cliffordu]

37. Oh, the humanity!! The Humanity!!

[grantcart]

38. so anything interesting happen today?

[cliffordu]

39. I dunno - someone high up in the McCain't campaign called Mooselini

a whack job....


Been loads o' concern about the fooookin' polls...

I made soup and cornbread.


Nothin' nothin in the scheme of things...

You??

[grantcart]

40. worked

[cliffordu]

41. What exactly do you do, grantcart???

Are you a cartographer for CDBG block grants?? The SCIP mapping????


(i.e. -- Grant Cartographer)