McCain is winning Arizona by two points. Two whole percentage points!

[Bucky]

Okay only one poll gives this finding and the two polls before that show him at 7 and 20+ points ahead respectively. But how awesome would it be if he had to spend resources on his home turf?

Right where he wants us.

[IsItJustMe]

1. Would it not be great if Obama went to Arizona to Campaign? Please do it Obama.

[DesertRat]

8. I think it would make the difference!

Let's turn Arizona blue!

[PermanentRevolution]

2. It's worth mentioning that this is the only poll from October, though

The last two were in September - a long time ago, politically!

[Canuckistanian]

3. Two points isn't a win, it's a dead heat

The MoE is probably around 5%, so any difference less than that is technically a tie.

[gcomeau]

4. No it isn't.

The MoE is probably around 5%, so any difference less than that is technically a tie.

A curse upon all media pundits who have screwed so many out of a proper understanding of statistics...

Being within the MOE does not mean the race is tied, technically or otherwise. It means there is a reasonable probability that it might be tied (or the trailing candidate might actually be ahead), but odds are still more against it than not.

[Bucky]

5. Well a dead heat isn't a tie; it's slang for "very close" or "within the margin of error"

On the other hand "I've got 'em right where I want 'em" is slang for "I'm getting my ass kicked."

[gcomeau]

6. Touche :)

(Although I think "technically a tie" does actually mean a tie. Technically. ;))

[Canuckistanian]

9. For all predictive purposes, it's indeterminate

That's what I meant to say.

Your language is more precise.

[Orsino]

11. Too close to call is indistinguishable from a tie. n/t

[David__77]

7. I would love for that to unexpectedly flip.

It would be the crowning moment.

[Orsino]

10. I believe that he is actually losing Arizona, so far.

Obama is polling a point ahead (statistical dead heat) among early voters.