Regardless of who leads now, assume Obama loses everywhere he is not polling 50% or above

[kennetha]

This can be justified by assuming that every single undecided breaks for McCain -- either out of some sort of quasi-Bradley effect or some sort of quasi-incumbent effect. Not saying that Obama will suffer from either in actuality. But just suppose as a thought experiment that he did.

Then, Obama still wins because under that scenario -- which is sort of best case for McCain -- he still carries PA, VA, NH, CO, and NM, IA and a bunch of other once seemingly "battleground" states.

Bottom line, McCain can't win just by moving the undecideds to his column. He has to actually peel votes away from Obama.

Are there any persuadable voters that can be moved from Obama to McCain? Apparently not many. 48% of the electorate now says they are certain to vote for Obama. That gives McCain a very, very small margin to work with.

[Sulawesi]

1. Completely agree...

Here are my comments on a similar post. I have heard several analysts say what you say here...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7622493&mesg_id=7624276

[kennetha]

2. thanks for the pointer. missed that one.