Poll: McCain Slipping in Arizona

[babylonsister]

Poll: McCain Slipping in Arizona
By Matthew DeLong 10/27/08 12:40 PM

It’s not considered a swing state, but Sen. John McCain’s home state of Arizona may open a window into the state of the national race. Another poll released over the weekend here shows McCain’s lead has shrunk by 10 percentage points in the past month.

According to the survey — conducted by Myers Research and Grove Insight on behalf of Project New West, a Democratic strategy group — McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama in Arizona by just four percentage points. The same poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus four points, gave McCain a 14-point lead in mid-September. From PolitickerAZ.com:

The poll finds that the contest “is an absolute dead heat” among early voters, with Obama edging McCain 47 to 46 percent. According to the results, 34 percent have already cast ballots through early voting. Among those who haven’t voted yet, McCain is up over Obama 49 to 42 percent.

Other findings include Arizona independents now seen to favor Obama by 10 points, women preferring Obama by eight points and McCain garnering the support of most men, leading Obama 54 percent to 36 percent. Of the total vote in Arizona, five percent plan to, or have already, cast their ballots for third party candidates.

The results are significant because neither candidate has actively campaigned in the state. Nor have the two combatants done local television advertising. If Obama can keep the race tight in McCain’s home state without campaigning, it raises questions about how the Arizona senator will fare in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, where both candidates have been campaigning heavily. MSNBC’s First Read today downgraded Arizona from “Likely McCain” to “Lean McCain.”

more...

http://washingtonindependent.com/14988/poll-mccain-slipping-in-arizona

[TlalocW]

1. I've been saying...

We've seen inklings of McCain getting ready to explode, but if Obama would spend some resources in Arizona, maybe "leak" that his internals show Arizona in play, and do one event there, not only would the McCain campaign finally implode completely from the fear that Obama knows something they don't know, but McCain would flip out.

TlalocW

[babylonsister]

2. I've read from a lot of people on DU who have the same opinion. I wonder why

Obama doesn't seem to be going there? I realize time is at a premium, but a quick visit to AZ sounds like a good idea to me, too.

[catgirl]

14. I betcha (:-)) he will if more polls show a tie/very close race there

[ihavenobias]

3. Good to know

Thanks for posting!

[DesertRat]

4. k&r

:woohoo:

[Two Sheds]

5. Now that's the kind of poll a "democratic" should post

well done

[DCBob]

6. This is amazing. Even his own constituents don't like him.

What a loser.

[last_texas_dem]

7. Another very close one from a little over a week ago

I saw this one posted on electoral-vote.com... I'm not sure about the reliability of Zimmerman polls (I've never heard of them) and the sample size of 408 likely voters seems particularly small... However, it is from a nonpartisan polling firm, and McSame being up by only 2 points in his home state gets my attention!

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/az_mccain_44_obama_42_zimmerma.php

[Mike 03]

8. As a fellow Arizonan, this is music to my ears

There has been a movement here since 2004 to turn Arizona blue. The polls that have come out over the past 48 hours of so give me hope: we may not turn our state blue, but just the sheer close margin should sufficiently humiliate McCain.

[Smuckies]

9. This is very interesting..

That Arizona is competitive. I do think, though unlikely, Obama will win Arizona.

[blueclown]

10. Reminscent of Tennessee in 2000.

Al Gore had leads in Tennessee for most of his campaign.

But in the last few weeks, that state swung to Bush.

[kath]

12. Ummm, not so clear on that one. There were a lot of electoral "irregularities" in TN.

Some think that it was stolen, in addition to Florida, but didn't get as much publicity.

[blueclown]

13. Well, Bush won the state.

And he won it by a larger margin than he did in Florida.

Even if there were irregulaties (there probably was), it still wouldn't have swung the state.

[DerekJ]

11. Women can be so much smarter than men.N/T

[Cha]

15. I got a note from a friend in Arizona today

who's been canvassing for Obama and Arizona's 3rd District's, Bob Lord, Democrat for Congress.

She said they had their own "mini-Watergate" there with Shadegg's campaign credit card being found on Bob Lord's office floor. I'll have to tell her that this "Gate" needs its own name.

How about Shadeggate?

"We posted earlier about the bizarre case of Arizona GOP Rep. John Shadegg's campaign credit card being discovered on the floor of the Arizona Democratic Party's headquarters. Shadegg's campaign rushed out an email in response saying that a "volunteer" accidentally dropped the card while paying for an Obama bumper sticker (on a total whim). That seemed like a pretty odd explanation (to be generous), but the Arizona Democratic Party just rushed out this release exposing a few holes in that story. Once again, here is the release in full:"


Sounds like more dirty tricks from repukes and possibly a Democratic Congressman for us.


"Lost and Found, Part Two: The TRUTH About John Shadegg's Campaign Credit Card
John Shadegg's campaign isn't being honest.

MYTH: According to both John Shadegg's campaign manager and spokeswoman, a campaign "volunteer" accidently dropped John Shadegg's campaign credit card at an Arizona Democratic Party office while purchasing a bumper sticker. (AP, 10/20/08; PolitickerAZ, 10/20/08)

FACT: Shadegg's so-called "volunteer," Ryan Anderson, is actually Shadegg's deputy campaign manager. (Yellow Sheet Report, 9/10/08)"


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