The Daily Widget, Mon 10/27 – O-383, M-155 – Undecideds Up As McCain Drops; Arizona?

[phrigndumass]

Latest Voter Registration Totals
Latest Early Voting Results
Latest Swing State Graphs
Latest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs


1. ANALYSIS

Forty-five state polls were released since Friday, and a common theme is beginning to reveal itself in the past week: As we approach Election Day, the number of Undecided voters is on the rise while the number of McCain supporters is dropping. At the same time, Barack Obama’s numbers are inching upward, now over 70 million votes. Voters who once supported John McCain are now giving Obama a second look.

We can see proof of this in Arizona, of all places. Obama’s poll numbers haven’t risen much there, but McCain’s poll numbers have dropped. Two new polls over the weekend show McCain leading in Arizona by only a couple points as the number of Undecideds in Arizona has risen to 15%.





Of all the states polled this weekend, Arizona is the only state to change columns. It moves from the Strong McCain column to the Lean McCain column today.

Further, Obama now leads McCain nationwide by more than 10 million votes, according to the totals from the state polls. With only eight days left, McCain would need to find 1,250,000 new votes every single day to make up the difference. If there were a “Huckabee Index” for the general election, this would be it

This will be an exciting week for us!



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alabama Obama 34, McCain 54 (AEA/Capital Survey, 10/16, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Arizona Obama 40, McCain 44 (Myers/Grove, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 41.5, McCain 43.5 (Zimmerman & Associates, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arkansas Obama 41, McCain 52 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (Rocky Mountain News, 10/23, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Connecticut Obama 56, McCain 31 (Univ Connecticut, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 502 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 562 LV)
Georgia Obama 45, McCain 51 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 615 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 49 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Illinois Obama 59, McCain 35 (Research 2000, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Indiana Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 631 LV)
Iowa Obama 54, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 40 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Kentucky Obama 39, McCain 55 (Research 2000, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 53, McCain 34 (Suffolk University, 10/21, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 37, B1, N1 (EPIC-MRA, 10/22, +/- 4.9, 400 LV)
Minnesota Obama 42, McCain 37 (St. Cloud State Univ, 10/18, +/- 4.6, 509 RV)
Mississippi Obama 33, McCain 46 (Univ South Alabama, 10/18, +/- 5.0, 403 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 47 (Research 2000, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 46 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 54, McCain 39 (Boston Globe/UNH, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 725 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Jersey Obama 56, McCain 39 (Marist College, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 628 LV)
New York Obama 65, McCain 29 (Marist College, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 527 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 44 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.6, 744 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Ohio Obama 52, McCain 42 (Insider Advantage, 10/22, +/- 5.0, 408 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 46, B1, N2 (Univ of Cincinnati, 10/22, +/- 3.3, 886 LV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 10/23, +/- 3.1, 993 LV)
Oregon Obama 48, McCain 34 (Riley Research, 10/15, +/- 4.4, 499 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 43 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 40 (Muhlenberg College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 608 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 41 (Morning Call, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 597 LV)
South Carolina Obama 35, McCain 55 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.9, 617 LV)
South Dakota Obama 41, McCain 50 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Tennessee Obama 38, McCain 54 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 45, McCain 44 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.8, 665 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 10/23, +/- 2.8, 1231 LV)
West Virginia Obama 43, McCain 49 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


.

[tekisui]

1. Man, oh, man!

10 million!

I like how Obama has more than double the strong EVs of mcPOWs.

I bet mcPOW is as ready as anyone to just get this over with.

Thanks for the pink AZ!

[phrigndumass]

2. McCain keeps losing Strong Red states, true!

I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas narrow just a little bit, leaving the poor guy with less than 100 EV in the Strong column. Someone needs to catch McCain slapping his own forehead saying "Stupid, stupid, stupid!" That would be a great viral video.

Good morning, tek!

[Demeter]

3. Good Morning P-Man!

Yup. Those graphs are too conservative...but that's okay! Christmas will come a little early, that's all.

I was contemplating post-election (assuming Shrub doesn't blow us all to Kingdom Come in his spiteful pique) and how you will be losing this daily outlet. Well, how about post-election analysis? That ought to be good for maybe a whole month or even two of posting! There will be 50 sets of data to pore over and slice and dice and chop and puree, minutia of nuances to poke into, and lots of graphing opportunities.

Please? Pretty please?

[phrigndumass]

7. Your writing skills amaze me :)

Your words always jump off the screen!

Yes, I will definitely be poking into the minutia of nuances, and sharing it with anyone who hungers for more opportunities to revel in it (synonym.com is my friend)

I have to wean myself off of this somehow! lol ...

Good morning!

[Demeter]

12. I Have Many Skills--None of Them Worth Paying For, Alas!

[a kennedy]

4. Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)

What the h*ll??? Strong Obama to weak Obama??? Dang it.....hope this is just for today's polls. Come on Wisconsin get with it. Russ Feingold is going to be on the La Crosse campus today for an Obama rally, might have to go. GOBAMA, GOBAMA, GOBAMA. and thank you phrigndumass you da man. and big game this coming Sunday. GPG

[phrigndumass]

9. Seems a little off, doesn't it?

Obama's average lead in Wisconsin looks better than Rasmussen's poll ...



Good morning, ak! GPG!

[ObamaKerryDem]

50. Looking good all around! :D Exciting to know taking AZ is even realistic to think about! :D n/t

[jakem]

5. I said it months ago- Obama should have made more of a play for AZ-

ah well. no one called me for my insightful political analysis...


Thanks PDA!

[No Elephants]

8. THANK YOU.

[jakem]

10. you're welcome?

[phrigndumass]

11. Makes sense, as Nevada and New Mexico are close by

And the Arizona electorate is growing with new voters.

What an insightful political analysis you have! (I'll call you anytime, lol)

Good morning, jakem!

[mucifer]

6. thanks Phrig!

[phrigndumass]

13. yw, mucifer :)

Good morning!

[mucifer]

14. BTW why won't electoral-vote.com use a poll past September?

Kind of annoying. I want that map to look just a little prettier. Call me greedy.

[phrigndumass]

15. For Arizona, you mean?

The two new polls this past weekend for Arizona were the first polls conducted there since September. And the "Votemaster" hasn't updated his website yet today, so maybe we'll see Arizona pink when he wakes up.

Or not?

[mucifer]

16. oops yeah I meant that sorry just waking up.

[fight4my3sons]

17. Good morning!

very happy to give you that 5th rec

[phrigndumass]

18. You rock! :)

Good morning!

[rosesaylavee]

19. Great start to MONDAY!

And I am glad to hear - as discussed with Demeter above - that your analysis will continue for awhile after the election. I will not only revel in learning more but SAVOR every morsel of information.

[phrigndumass]

23. It's funny how certain things come to light only after the election is over :)

Yet it was right there under our noses all along. I'm looking forward to finding those morsels (good word!) and sharing them here.

But after I sleep in for a few days, lol

Good morning, rose!

[progressoid]

20. 383?

I'm not greedy, I'd settle for the 375.

[phrigndumass]

24. lol ... I'll settle for 375, too :)

My EV calculator is seeing Montana as blue, plus a couple EVs coming from Georgia and/or Arizona, thus the difference

Good morning!

[dbmk]

39. Intrade state trading is pointing to 375 as far as I can tell.

K and R for you, phrig!

[phrigndumass]

45. Well, there you go, EV.com is at 375 as well

Seems to be a concensus

Thanks, partner!

[davidpdx]

21. Jolly Good Show

Enjoyed the reading as always.

The four different Ohio polls going different directions are annoying. It's hard to make heads or tails from them.

Also you jokingly said if only we have a Huckabee Index. The question is, can you come up with one????

PLEASE!
PLEASE!

Good evening! (off to bed now)

[phrigndumass]

27. Good observation about the Ohio polls

The Insider Advantage poll (O+10) seems high for Obama, and the Strategic Vision poll (M+3) is an obvious lolpoll ... it's probably best to average the two. The poll from U-Cincinnati is probably the closest.

A new Huckabee Index is definitely doable ... it was grantcart's idea to use the number of votes per day McCain would need to catch up, so I'll pick his brain.

Good night!

[Lochloosa]

22. Good Morning phrig

9 long days left.

[phrigndumass]

28. Long days, yes! But exciting :)

Good morning, Lochloosa!

[Kukesa]

25. Arizona moves to "lean McCain." Wow! Good AM, phrig. n/t

[phrigndumass]

29. It shocked me, too :)

Good morning, Kukesa!

[CatBO]

26. Dear Phrign...

I have seen your handle for nearly a year now, but only recently "sounded out the letters" to myself. I phrign love it.

Thank you for these daily widgets.

[phrigndumass]

31. LOL ... I love it when someone figures it out and gets a chuckle :)

Good phrign morning, CatBO!

[PermanentRevolution]

42. I only "got it" a few weeks ago, too

I felt like a... well, you get the idea!

[phrigndumass]

46. lol :)

another chuckle

[comtec]

30. GAH WTF!!!!!

FRIDAY (or was it Thursday) Had Obama at 277, in the STRONG column, and NONE in the lean-mclame, WHAT HAPPENED?!?!

[phrigndumass]

34. Partly right ...

The Lean McCain column was empty, but it is filling up with formerly Weak- and Strong-McCain states, lol

I just looked back at the widget posts last week, and the Strong Obama column was at 260 EV both Thursday and Friday.

Friday: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/...

Thursday: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/...

[Patiod]

32. Phils one away, Penn State wins, and now these pretty pictures?

For a long time Phillies fan (depressing) and hard-canvassing Dem for Gore and Kerry (depressing) and Penn Stater (OK, they've done pretty well over the years) this is a dream year.

[phrigndumass]

35. The PA polls must be giving you a boost as well :)

It's terrific to see Pennsylvania as solid blue this year.

Good morning, Patiod

[Smuckies]

33. Hey, thanks! I wouldn't be

stunned one bit if Obama sneaked in Arizona on 11/4.

[phrigndumass]

36. Payback for Tennessee going to Bush in 2000?

Al Gore's retribution, lol

It would be a nice cherry on top.

Good morning, Smuckies!

[CADEMOCRAT7]

37. Thank you so much, this is very interesting and informative.

Obama needs to spend time in PA. I believe that is on schedule for this week. I am very interested in tracking the "Obama's Seventeen". Again, thank you very much, I just spent a lot time studying this. Why does Pew always show such a big lead ?

[phrigndumass]

47. yw, CD7 :)

Feel free to ask me anything, I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night

Who knows about Pew ... they could be the ones who are right and the rest of the pollsters could be on the low side. We'll find out next week!

[frickaline]

38. Ooooh Blue Arizona, I'd sure like to see that!

Thanks again, Mr. P!

[phrigndumass]

48. The southwest is changing :)

btw, is Utah considered part of the Southwest?

I'm hoping for a blue Arizona, too!

[grantcart]

40. thanks and good morning

[phrigndumass]

49. you're welcome and good afternoon

[SallyMander]

41. Man, if you are ever in Cbus

I would like to buy you a beer. Or many beers.

(Or coffee, soda, or other beverage of your choosing, if you're not a beer guy! )

[phrigndumass]

51. Isn't Columbus the anti-Cincinnati? :)

I hear it's one of the more progressive cities in the midwest.

I'll settle for a latte!

[Sugarcoated]

43. Skweeeeeee! Cool beans with Arizona tightening!

Hey Phrig!



As much as I want this thing to be over with already, I so look forward to seeing this thread every morning! (breathe in). . . eight more days . . .(breathe out) . . !

[phrigndumass]

52. How did you get grantcart to do that in the video? lol ...

He needs to lose a few pounds ...

Thanks, I look forward to sharing this and chatting with DUers every morning, but I want it to be over with, too!

[OmahaBlueDog]

44. Mr. PDA: Today's stupid question from OmahaBlueDog

First. Again, as a Poltical Scientist by training, but certainly not by profession, I again admire your fine work.

Today's stupid question is based on an article from Salon that I posted.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/27/undecid...

<<Before we begin, I should say I'm not going to advance any theories for why voters do what they do, or why they may mislead pollsters. MIT professor Adam Berinsky thinks that some survey respondents, when asked racially charged questions, answer "I don't know" to conceal opinions they think are unpopular. Me, I'm only going to talk about math.

In Ohio in 2006, black Republican Ken Blackwell ran against white Democrat Ted Strickland for governor. On Nov. 6, the day before the election, Survey USA released a poll showing Strickland with 55 percent, Blackwell with 38 percent, two independents with a combined 3 percent and 4 percent undecided. On Election Day the actual results were Strickland 60.4 percent, Blackwell 36.8 percent and a combined 2.8 percent for the independents. For Blackwell, what he got was just a little less than what he saw.

In Maryland, black Republican Michael Steele and white Democrat Ben Cardin were vying for the Senate seat long held by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. During the week before balloting, the polls were fairly static. Steele wobbled between 43 and 47 percent in surveys from four different companies. Cardin's total ranged from 47 to 49 percent. Depending on methodology, undecideds accounted for 2 to 7 percent of the sample. The day before the election, a final poll from Survey USA put Cardin at 49 percent and Steele at 47. On Nov. 7, Cardin won with 54.2 percent of the vote. Steele got only 44.2. For Steele, like Blackwell, what he got was less than what he saw. Apparently, Cardin got virtually all the undecideds.

How about Tennessee, where black Democrat Harold Ford was up against white Republican Bob Corker for Republican Bill Frist's old U.S. Senate seat? Harold Ford did slightly better than Steele and Blackwell. The day before the election, he was within a point of Corker, 47 to 48 with 5 percent undecided, according to OnPoint Polling. On Nov. 7, Corker got 50.7 percent of the vote, Ford got 48 and an assortment of independents took 1.3 percent. Ford was able to pick up one out of every five undecided voters.

In deep blue Massachusetts, white Republican Kerry Healey lost badly to black Democrat Deval Patrick in the race to succeed Mitt Romney as governor. But Healey, who had been Romney's lieutenant governor, outperformed her polling. In the three weeks prior to the election Healey peaked at 31 percent in five polls that allowed respondents to choose "undecided." In those same five polls, Patrick averaged 53.4 percent. The number of undecideds ranged from 4 to 11 percent. On Election Day, Healey got 35.33 percent of the vote. Patrick got 55.64. Healey had added more than 4 points to her pre-election poll total, twice as big as Patrick's increase.

A skeptic could point out that Healey may have been drawing more heavily than Patrick from the relatively large pool of survey respondents who claimed they would be supporting an independent. But a Republican, like me, might point out that there does appear to be a pattern in these four races from just two years ago. And, in the case of Ohio, there was another poll with a different methodology and different results that seemed to confirm that pattern. The University of Cincinnati conducted a poll the day before the gubernatorial election that did not include undecideds. Respondents who initially answered "I don't know" were pushed to reveal which way they were leaning. All respondents were assigned to a candidate.>>

Basically, the author asserts that undecided voters will break for McSame on a 2-1 to 4-1 basis based on what I consider to be thin evidence (asserted above). Do you have any opinion on the opinions of the analysis presented in the article?

[phrigndumass]

53. Ah, there are no stupid questions, just stupid answers ...

Like this one

The one thing that can screw up a good election forecasting model is making incorrect assumptions about how the undecided voters might split. I'm hoping I don't screw mine up!

The thing to remember, though, is that the election is won by electoral votes and projecting how the undecideds will vote really only matters in the states that are close, or the states where the split between the candidates is less than the total of undecideds.

Knowing which states these are is the most important part of projecting undecideds, because the stories from these states' past election cycles can provide good material for making good assumptions. There is no one assumption that is correct, no "one size fits all" in my opinion that can be applied to all the states, and every election year it's different.

Making good assumptions about the third party candidates in each state is also very helpful, because it helps us see the true difference between the major candidates' standing in each state.

The writer of the article is making a sweeping assumption, and history has shown that to be a huge mistake. He's looking for low and away, but he's not watching out for in his ear.

[DesertRat]

54. Great post. Thanks! k&r

[MadBadger]

55. North Carolina is weakening for us.

Its definitely closing here, which may be where it really always was, but I think its probably a true tossup at this point.