Status Graphs for Obama’s Seventeen Swing States – Updated 10/26

[phrigndumass]

The 17 states where the Obama campaign has focused much of their time and resources this year are:

Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (7)
Michigan (17)
Missouri (11)
Montana (3)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

If all these states were packaged together into one very large state, it would have 196 electoral votes. The graph below shows how Barack Obama is performing overall in this fictional megastate (he leads 50% to 43%).





If you’ve read my posts, you may know that sometimes I get curious and want to know more. I wanted to see how Obama’s lead has trended in each of these 17 states over the past month or two, so I created the graphs below for each state.

The graphs below show how much Obama has led in each state over time (or trailed, if negative), and whether his lead falls into the margin of error of +/- 3 points (as shown in each graph’s purple rounded rectangle). The blue line shows the tracking of Obama’s lead in each state, and the red line is the majority line of zero. If Obama’s blue line falls below the red line, he is trailing McCain in that state. If Obama’s blue line rises above the red line, he is leading McCain in that state.


I chose +/- 3 points for the margin of error because anything above or below that is equivalent to a 97% probability of winning that state, according to Nate Silver’s correlation illustration below.



^ FIGURE 5d. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.


Enjoy!





















































* * * * * * *


Here are three more, for good measure











.

[JeffR]

1. Wow, I got the first rec in.

This is a wonderful antidote to the idiotic conern posts I've seen this weekend.

Thanks! I needed that.

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks, Jeff!

Those concern posts, lol ... Just give them a link to this post or paste one of these graphs in their thread to soothe their concern

If the "concerned" poster is a freeper, it'll only piss them off more!

[NYC_SKP]

2. Rec #2. Thanks, phrigndumass.

I love what you do with the pretty blue lines and the way they interact with the sad red ones...

[phrigndumass]

5. lol ... sad red lines :)

Thanks!

[fight4my3sons]

3. #3!

All your graphs are loading fast!

[phrigndumass]

6. Missed you! Glad you're back early!

The new DSL service must be working well for you then

[fight4my3sons]

9. You know we had to check to see if we could get online!

The router thing that they sent was just sitting here. I'm so happy that your threads loaded with no problem. (checked your weekly too)

[phrigndumass]

15. Glad you did :)

My threads will put your router to the test, lol

Have you opened any boxes yet? I'd put them off until Nov. 5th if I were you

[FrenchieCat]

7. Wow....how dandy and insightful! Thank you for this!

[phrigndumass]

11. yw, Frenchie :)

Just trying to keep up with you

Thanks for all you do!

[Blondiegrrl]

8. Thanks for all your hard work. This is fascinating! n/t

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks, Blondiegrrl :)

[Curtland1015]

10. Nice work, as always.

Not long now!!!

[phrigndumass]

17. Nine days, or 216 hours, or 12,960 minutes away :)

And we will be able to celebrate President-Elect Barack Obama!

[Lerrad]

12. Hot Dam! That makes me feel much better.

Thank you for taking the time to put all that together.
Just what I need ed to boost my spirits a little.

Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

18. yw, Lerrad :)

It gave me a boost, too

[cliffordu]

13. Shweet!!!! Thanks for all your hard work!!

[phrigndumass]

19. yw, cliffy :)

[melody]

14. Your posts are always among my favorites, phrigndumass

Thanks for putting it together.

[phrigndumass]

21. Aw,thanks!

I'm actually being selfish because I love doing this. Meanwhile, the dirty dishes stack up and the yard goes unmowed, lol ...

[Demeter]

20. You Know, Some People Watch TV to Relax After A Hard Day of Knocking on Doors

or crossword puzzles, recreational cooking, walk the dog, change the cat litter....

I'm really beginning to worry about this OCD thing. We shouldn't be encouraging it!

Nice graphs, by the way. Very enlightening.

[phrigndumass]

24. I slept all the way home, lol

Two and a half hour drive, nothing but ZZZ's. S.O.'s turn to sleep now, lol

Really, this relaxes me. I enjoy doing it.

[SallyMander]

22. Luuuuvvvv you!

Thanks for the pretty graphs!

[phrigndumass]

25. Back atcha SallyMander xoxo :)

[Kukesa]

32. We Buckeyes will have to fight over him; I luv him, too! n/t

[SallyMander]

34. I just checked your profile

and see that you are VolcanoJen's mom! She is one of my favorite posters here! for both of you

[Kukesa]

52. Yep, VolcanoJen introduced me to DU in 2004; she's been

a member since 2001.

How nice of you to say she's one of your favorites. I'll be sure to let her know, just in case she doesn't see this thread.

Hugs back at ya!

[phrigndumass]

35. My face is redder than those majority lines, lol

[SallyMander]

37. ...

[saltpoint]

23. What fun these are.

Thank you.

Recommended.

[phrigndumass]

26. You can thank the Obama campaign for making these fun, lol

If McCain were ahead, these wouldn't be quite as enjoyable. But since we're leading, it's darn perrty to look at!

[saltpoint]

27. They are darned pretty indeed.

[Gregorian]

28. Given the time left, the mean-reversion adjustment isn't going to be significant.

There is an absolute ton of information on the fivethirtyeight website. It's in the FAQ. I'm trying to get a sense of what these polls really mean. How accurate they are. The 538 website has an involved method of putting the information together in a way that is about as accurate as it can be. Half lifes, averaging of polls, rating of pollsters on their historical accuracy. It's quite involved. I guess it's the best we can do short of a live election.



How does the mean-reversion adjustment work?
There has been an extremely robust tendency in Presidential elections for national polling numbers to revert to the mean as the election approaches – that is, for the trailing candidate to gain ground. The further we are out from the election, the more tightening in the polls we can expect. For example, a 20-point national lead held 200 days before the election projects, on average, to only about an 8-pont victory on Election Day, whereas a 5-point lead held 60 days before the election projects to about a 4-point victory. This adjustment is described in much more detail here.


How are undecided voters allocated?
This process may seem to work slightly backward. Firstly, we determine how much of the vote is likely to go to third-party candidates in each state based on a regression of the current undecided and ‘other’ vote in each state against historical trends. Then, having created an allocation for third-party candidates, we allocate the remaining undecided vote 50:50 between the major-party candidates.


Warning- you can fall into the 538 black hole quite easily. There seems to be an endless amount of polling information.

[phrigndumass]

30. You might appreciate this post from DemocratSinceBirth ...

"The economics of reporting polls" (link)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



The biggest unknown at this point in any election is how the Undecideds will fall. Every pollster has a different way of anticipating that (sometimes more than one way). Nate Silver's method seems to be 50:50 after third party candidates, which seems very fair and sensible. I'm likely to be a bit more liberal, and I just hope I don't screw my model up by blowing it with the Undecided projections, lol

Nate Silver has done an outstanding job this year with 538.com, and I really appreciate his transparency. I've learned much from his website!

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

29. CNN released their "Poll of Polls" for Georgia today

Do you know if those polls included Bob Barr in their choices for president? I'm just curious! I've looked for tier internals but,no avail.

[phrigndumass]

33. The CNN/Time polls always include third-party polling as well ...

So I would bet they include Bob Barr, as well as any other major third-party candidate on the ballot in Georgia. Internals are always hard to come by.

[Kukesa]

31. Thanx, phrig -- you always make me feel better. n/t

[phrigndumass]

36. yw, Kukesa :)

[BrklynLiberal]

38. Great post!! Your individual state graphs are fantastic. Thanks so much.

[phrigndumass]

41. Thanks, BL

[mmonk]

39. There's plenty there that will give Obama victory. He won't lose

the lead in all of them.

[phrigndumass]

42. That's true!

Meanwhile, McCain is struggling to find some way to eek out a tiny win, but the Obama campaign has made it next to impossible for him!

[mmonk]

45. Great work as usual. I will share this and the graphs with others.

[jefferson_dem]

40. Awesome post per usual, phrigndumass!

Given the trends (consistent leads outside the margin), I feel totally comfortable putting these Bush 2004 states in the deep blue column: CO, IA, NM, NV, VA. Since Obama will hold onto the Kerry states, that brings us to 291. The other Bush states are bonuses. In fact, we can afford to suffer surprise loses in any two of those deep blue states, provided the two are not CO and VA (which would take us to 269, requiring we win in the House or capture the NB district.)

I like it!

[phrigndumass]

43. I'm seeing the same thing :)

Good analysis! I'm a bit more uneasy about Nevada, but the Latino demographic should tip it to Obama.

Thanks, jd!

[jefferson_dem]

44. NV is the most shaky of the bunch.

Tomorrow, Michelle ("The Closer") will be there to lock it down with a midnight (ET) rally in Vegas.

The early vote numbers are incredibly promising. Almost 200,000 votes cast in Clark Co. 2:1 Dems. http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[grantcart]

46. McCain only needs about 15 of those 20 lol

[phrigndumass]

48. Should we postpone the election to give him a fighting chance? lol ...

Forget I said that ...

[grantcart]

50. somebody get a gun

[phrigndumass]

51. lol

[PufPuf23]

47. Good Newz / Great Graphics!

Thank you. This is inspiring after all these years.

[phrigndumass]

49. yw, Puf

[phrigndumass]

53. Morning kick

[tekisui]

54. knr!

Great stuff!

[phrigndumass]

55. Thanks, tek!

[No Elephants]

56. THANK YOU! Your graphs are always a pleasure.

[phrigndumass]

57. yw, No Elephants :)

Thanks!

[progressoid]

58. C'mon Florida!

Looks like you need a little Viagra.

[phrigndumass]

59. ...

Bob Dole approves this message