Do i Have This Right? Re: Early Voting

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Gallup is suggesting that McInsane and Obama are roughly tied among their voters who have voted early but since there are more Obama supporters than McInsane supporters Obama's "banking" a lot more votes...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. ????????????????????

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[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Someone Surely Knows The Answer

[pnwmom]

5. That would be consistent with what I've been hearing elsewhere.

In other words, almost all Republicans support McCain. Almost all Democrats support Obama. But there are significantly MORE registered Democrats that have been early-voting. (In North Carolina, for example, more than 58% Democrats, versus --I think -- 25% Republicans.) So Obama has almost certainly been piling up more votes.

[Lisa0825]

3. I can't make sense of the question.

:shrug:

[Genevieve]

4. neither can I. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. OK

1) According to Gallup rougly equal numbers of McCain and Obama voters have voted early (O-31% M 29%)

2) Since there are more Obama voters than McCain supporters he's getting more early votes...

[Lisa0825]

12. Roughly equal percentages or roughly equal NUMBERS?

Because you are saying roughly equal numbers, which would be contradictory to your second statement.

[Lisa0825]

15. Is this what you mean?

O-31% M 29%

31% of Obama's supporters have voted early. 29% of McCain's supporters have voted early. The 31% is out of a larger number, so therefore more Obama voters have voted already.

Do I have that right? I was confused with the use of the word "numbers" vs "percentage."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Exactly

That's what Gallup is saying...

McCain has a huger hurdle because Obama is banking a lot more votes...

[Lisa0825]

19. Sounds good to me! :-) nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. It Doesn't Matter

If Obama is leading McCane by eight points or so at this time and their supporters are voting at equal levels Obama will be leading by approximately that amount among people who are voting early...

[DrToast]

6. Yes, you're correct. n/t

*

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Hi Doc And Welcome To DU

~

[Bullet1987]

7. Where is Gallup getting his numbers? Since actual votes haven't been released

Just party registration in some states (which according to what I've read vastly favors Obama). Probably more of an attempt by the MSM to push the horserace.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. From Their Polling

They are asking people if they already voted...

[Bullet1987]

22. It's still not actual votes...so saying McCain and Obama are tied in early voting

Is like trying to make a projection and he shouldn't be doing that. For them to be tied in early voting...that means Obama has to be losing the Dem vote BADLY! Which is unlikely since he's polling pretty high on Dem support.

[bkinsd]

8. I'm not sure I follow the logic here, but most media outlets

are reporting a huge turnout among democrats, so I think that you have some bad information. Chuck Todd on Meet The Press indicated a massive Democrat turnout for early voting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Please See Post #9

~

[tulsakatz]

14. I think that's true.........

if you recall, during the primaries.....at many of the democratic primaries, many, many people showed up!! In the republican ones, not so much.

I have a friend who lives in Kansas. When he went to their democratic caucus, he said it was so packed, people had to wait in line before they could even get into the building!! In contrast, the republican one, hardly anyone even bothered to show up!

Clearly that was before the Palin pick so there may be more enthusiasm for the republican side now but I still expect there will be many more democrats voting than republicans.

[grantcart]

18. You may have what gallup saying as correct but the facts show

Democrats with a huge lead

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Florida was tied but now the Dems are pulling ahead.

The big story is NC more AA voters than Republicans

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. That's Even Better

~

[BlueIdaho]

21. If I remember this one right...

What they really were saying is - people are voting at the same percentages they were polling prior to voting. That is - no change to the percentage of support not that they voters are voting 50/50. It was written in a way to benefit the McCain campaign by confusing people into thinking this is a real horse race.