Zogby has McCain beating Obama among Jewish voters-I call BS

[jenmito]

Yeah, right, Zogby. Gallup has him up with over 70% and you have him down by 2%? It was on C-Span this morning, the numbers. I think it was 48% for McCain to 46% for Obama, and on his website Zogby says, "Obama widened his lead among Catholic voters, and now carries a 25-point advantage, up from a 22-point lead in yesterday's report. While Obama continues to lead among Protestants who are not evangelical and McCain leads among evangelical voters, McCain holds a slim edge among Jewish voters."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1608

That's bull.

[Genevieve]

1. I don't believe that. nt

[jenmito]

7. Neither do I. The vast majority of Jewish voters ALWAYS vote Dem. and Gallup's poll

out just yesterday had Obama up 74% to 22%:


http://www.gallup.com/poll/111424/Obama-Winning-Over-Jewish-Vote.aspx

[babylonsister]

2. Um, Zogby lies...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=7587914

http://jeffreygoldberg.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/about_those_racist_jewish_vote.php

:hi:

[jenmito]

10. Thanks. I saw your link yesterday. I was going to start a similar thread.

Thanks for the links, though. :hi:

[Buzz Clik]

3. Zogby is on the fringe in many of their polls.

The bad part is they are sometimes correct.

[PCIntern]

4. utter and complete bullshit...

Zogby. Hmmm. Let's see...

The brother of the founder of the Arab-American Institute is giving 'reliable' poll numbers for Jewish groups.

[still_one]

5. I agree it is bull. Every other poll says just the opposite. zogby screws up again /nt

[kestrel91316]

6. I guarantee you that's BS, if for no other reason than most Jewish voters

would rather die than see a Palin have a chance at getting into the White House. They aren't stupid.

[PCIntern]

9. How stupid are we...?

:hi: Just kidding of course.

[jenmito]

Exactly.

His stats are bull.

[Honeycombe8]

8. I saw another poll showing that. So I think it's true. He's not behind by much, but he is behind.

Now we know why McFailin has been hitting the anti-Israel thing hard. Gugly-elmo has also been sending robocalls about it.

[jenmito]

11. What other poll? Do you happen to have a link? TIA.

[Honeycombe8]

38. I think it was in the text of some recent article. I read so much on politics that

I don't recall. I'll look for it. Maybe it was the same Zogby poll as this poster is posting about. But I thought it was something other than Zogby. I'll look for it.

[Honeycombe8]

42. I found it. My bad. It's the same poll. It's actually called Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking..

It's actually called Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking poll. I just remembered that it wasn't "Zogby Poll."

Sorry. Here's what it says in part..or at least an article reciting parts of it (it's actually pretty good news, except for the Jewish blip):

http://www.pnj.com/article/20081025/NEWS01/81025011

"McCain improves in today's Zogby poll
October 25, 2008

UTICA, N.Y. - Republican John McCain is making a slow upward turn at week's end, but still trails Democrat Barack Obama by 9.5 points with a week and a half left before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.

(snip)
"The poll, a three-day rolling average survey of likely voters nationwide, shows that McCain made up significant ground among independent voters, though Obama continues to lead by a 50 percent to 34 percent margin, the telephone tracking survey shows. McCain was down by 26 points among independents on Friday.

"Obama leads among women, 56% to 40%, and he holds a four-point lead among men. Obama continues to lead among voters of all ages, though the race among some age groups have tightened.

"Obama widened his lead among Catholic voters, and now carries a 25-point advantage, up from a 22-point lead in Friday's report. While Obama continues to lead among Protestants who are not evangelical and McCain leads among evangelical voters, McCain holds a slim edge among Jewish voters.

(snip)
"Obama continues to win a significant 19% slice of the conservative vote, while McCain now wins only 3% of the support of liberals. Among moderates, which comprise about 30% of the sample, Obama leads, 64% to 29%.
(snip)"

It concludes by saying that since the beg. of the daily tracking poll (about 2 wks ago), Obama has gained 3.4 points, while McCain has lost 3.7 points. It also says that the poll is a 3-day rolling avg., and it is of LV nationwide. About 400 interviews are done ea. 24 hr period. MOE is about 3.

[FVZA_Colonel]

20. I thought that recent polls showed Obama ahead 3 to 1 with Jewish voters?

[jenmito]

22. Check out post #7.

[Cassandra]

12. Kos says that Zogby oversamples repukes...

which make his results skewed.

[jenmito]

17. Zogby himself said he samples the most number of Repubs...

but it still shouldn't cause such a skewed result.

[book_worm]

13. I saw that too. Every other poll Iv'e seen has Obama swamping McCain among Jewish voters

and a 25-point lead for Obama among Catholics? I don't buy that either. I think it's narrower than that.

[JerseygirlCT]

14. I don't know which hand-picked group of people he's talking to

but that sure doesn't fit with any of the Jewish people I've talked to!

[PCIntern]

15. right you are...I would estimate that 15-20% of the Jews

in my practice are voting McCain. If that. And I ask all of them...canvassing Jews is what I do!

[JerseygirlCT]

16. LOL

I just talk to the family. And they were on the Obama bandwagon before I was. My 75 yo FIL was enthusiastically supporting him before the primaries began even.

Very few of their friends are behind McCain. Very, very few.

[LiberalFighter]

21. Just the ones that suck their left thumb and do nasty things with their right hand.

Those are about 12 out of all the Jewish faith.

They only listen to Rush Windbag or Glen Beck.



IMPORTANT: I am only identifying 12 as doing the above and being polled by Zogby.

[Meshuga]

18. Ok, Zogby was mocking the AP poll this week

I mean, I guess we can mock Zogby now for this outrageously wrong poll. It's *almost* like saying that McCain is winning the black vote. This has to be a typo or something because it is ridiculous!

[jenmito]

19. It may be a typo but he didn't correct it on c-span this morning...

I just don't believe it for a second.

[Meshuga]

28. I guess it wasn't a typo

I used to think people here were too harsh on Zogby but this poll is showing me that the harsh criticism is valid.

[jenmito]

33. I felt the same way...

and feel the way you do now, too. :hi:

[LiberalFighter]

24. McCain is winning the black vote. Probably what's his name that ran against Obama in Illinois.

[Meshuga]

26. McCain might be winning in the Alan Keyes household

:rofl:

[LiberalFighter]

27. That's the guy! But wasn't his daughter against him?

[Meshuga]

29. I don't know - I didn't remember his daughter

But I think it would be funny if McCain is losing even in the Alan Keyes household. :-)

[jenmito]

34. He threw his daughter out of the house when he discovered she's gay.

Nice family values. :eyes:

[Danmel]

36. shouldn't that be barack obama 69?

Seriously, while there are Jewish voters who are reluctant to support Obama because they are afraid he is anti-Israel, it is nowhere near close. The large majority of Jewish voters i speak to (and I speak to a lot) are voting for Obama- they don't like McCain, the really don't like Palin.

[democrattotheend]

23. Probably a small sample

Couldn't be more than 5% of the sample, so a three-day tracker wouldn't have enough Jews to really show a statistically significant breakdown. Gallup looks at sub-groups over longer tracking periods, so I tend to trust their # more.

[bullwinkle428]

25. WHAT A FUCKING PILE! This is about as credible as Ashley Todd's "mugging"!

[jenmito]

31. Exactly. n/t

[bigtree]

30. GALLUP SHOWS A HUGE LEAD - BY MORE THAN 3 to 1

One of the more interesting stories of this year's presidential campaign has been Barack Obama's relative weakness with Jewish voters, a voting group that typically strongly backs Democratic presidential nominees but whose backing for Obama has been significantly weaker than for his recent Democratic predecessors.

But that's apparently changing.

Gallup reported the following today:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Jewish voters nationwide have grown increasingly comfortable with voting for Barack Obama for president since the Illinois senator secured the Democratic nomination in June. They now favor Obama over John McCain by more than 3 to 1, 74% to 22%...

...The current proportion of U.S. Jews backing Obama is identical to the level of support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards received in the 2004 presidential election (74%). It is only slightly lower than what Al Gore and Joe Lieberman received in 2000 (80%) -- when the first Jewish American appeared on the presidential ticket of a major party.

One of Gallup's more fascinating, counter-intuitive findings in this poll is that older Jews are actually stronger for Obama than younger Jews.

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/assets_c/2008/10
/Obama%20Jewish%20supporters%20by%20age-thumb-425x249.jpg


link: http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/obamas_jewish_vote_grows.html

[jenmito]

35. Thanks...

Yup. I posted a graph from Gallup in post #7. There's no WAY McCain's doing better among Jewish voters than Obama.

[Downtown Hound]

32. Zogby has become a joke

I don't even know why people bother posting his polls at all.

[melody]

37. He has become "Wrong Way Zogby". Whichever direction he predicts, it goes the other way

I'm always hopeful when I see Zog pimping for McCain.

[Teaser]

39. There were probably 10 Jewish voters in his sample

It's certainly possible McCain could lead in such a very small subsample

[HughMoran]

40. I've seen 74 - 26 Jewish for Obama

Zogby is smoking crack.

[progressivebydesign]

41. that is such bullshit. n/t