Voter Registration Totals By State – Updated 10/25

[phrigndumass]

Below are the latest-reported total voters registered by state, and how it compares to 2004. This data is culled from each state's website for Secretary of State and/or Division of Elections.


(See last week’s Voter Registration Totals)


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


Alaska, Florida, Kentucky and Nevada are the only states so far who have released a final official count. A handful of states haven't updated their voter registration totals for public viewing since the primaries. These figures will all be released to the public in the next few days.

The number of registered voters for this year's presidential election is 15.4% higher than for the 2004 presidential election (so far), or 180,281,534 registered voters. Turnout among registered voters in 2004 was roughly 70%, or about 122 million votes. Turnout rates are expected to be even higher this year, and some are estimating it at 77%. I am projecting approximately 139 million votes this year.






Below is a look at just the swing states from the above tables. The number of registered voters in the swing states for this year's presidential election is 25.6% higher than in 2004.





Obama is leading in the swing states as a whole by roughly 50% to 43% (see graph below) with only nine days remaining until the election.





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[NHDEMFORLIFE]

1. When I see NH up 19 percent ...

It makes me more convinced than ever that the GOP here is toast. McCain, Sununu, et al, are not going to get the votes of people who registered this year.

[phrigndumass]

4. I'm with you there :)

And when we see a poll showing Obama's lead at only +4, we have to wonder if the pollster conducting the poll is properly weighting for these new voters.

[Youphemism]

2. Alaska registration increases by 45%! I bet the AIP is pissed...

While those Alaska Independence Party folks were cheering about infiltrating Washington, their sleeper candidate increased participation in the US government by nearly half!

Thanks yet again, Phrig!

[phrigndumass]

5. LOL

That's kind of an irony, isn't it? Against the United States government, but willing to participate in the government's elections, lol

[skooooo]

3. Indiana shows the biggest increase - 38%....

...as best I can tell. I bet Obama will win there too.

[phrigndumass]

6. Biggest among the swing states :)

Now we can see why Obama is beginning to lead in the Indiana polls

[skooooo]

12. Yeah, I guess Alaska has bigger percentage...

Go Obama!

[rasputin1952]

7. Nebraska up almost 16%...

FWIW...a LOT of these are young people I was completely taken aback at how many of todays youth signed up this year alone. Many of them are D's or I's, they are shedding the "R" out here as quickly as possible.

[phrigndumass]

10. Could this be good news for us in the Omaha district?

I admit I haven't paid much attention this year to the polls by district in Nebraska. Hope it pans out for us there!

[rasputin1952]

17. Looks like that idiot Fortenberry will most likely get back in...

he hean't even come around this year...wish I could help more to get rid of that clown...

I'm working on it though, not too many people like him, he's such a stick-up-his-butt GOP slug....

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

8. thanks, phrig. One note: NC's registration is still open to 11/1, the last day of early voting.

Boffo early voting here, too, by the way. We've matched 04's early vote total after only 9 of 16 days. 55% dems voting early, 28% reps.

[phrigndumass]

9. Thanks for pointing that out ... I changed it for the next post :)

Good eyes!

The early voting numbers are amazing. I've been watching NC's early voting numbers with my jaw on the floor, lol ... Let the republicans stand in line on election day, since they're the ones who created the lines!

[K Gardner]

11. I've been wanting to ask a question, but not sure how to phrase it, maybe you can

help.

Is it possible that the Early Voting totals ALONE could be giving Obama the presidency even BEFORE Nov. 4th, i.e., that in addition to the votes he will gain then, he is already producing an insurmountable lead? Is there any way to know this?

I'm wondering simply because if you read between the lines and expressions of newscasts and pundits, it almost seems like they have some "inside info" the rest of us don't have.

[phrigndumass]

13. It's possible, but not probable ...

The early voting numbers don't show results by candidate, and only some show results by party voting. If more Democrats are voting than republicans in early voting by a margin of 30%, then 70% of the total voting would need to be done prior to Election Day to call it for Obama, and I don't think that's probable.

However, the number to watch for that to come true is 97 million votes cast in early voting. Early voting is only at 9 million now, with ten days left.

Did that help?

Good morning, K!

[goclark]

16. Thanks for all you do to keep us calm

Now if I just knew the most secure and sure way to vote in CA I would get to it early,

I have an absentee ballot but I don't want to put it in the mail. I don't trust the post office.

I want to put my ballot inside a box so I believe I will have to drive out to our County Office to "Early Vote."

Thanks for inspiring me to double check that --

Edit to add this link I just found....
http://www.lavote.net/GENERAL/PDFS/PRESS_RELEASES/10102...

[phrigndumass]

18. Wow, voter registrations are up 200,000 in Los Angeles alone! :)

Thanks for sharing that, goclark!

If there is a way for you to physically deliver your ballot and put it in a ballot box, I would do it that way if I were you. Doing so would remove the middle-man (post office, or county clerk's office, or whoever opens the mail there) ... and you will feel more confident that your vote is in the right hands.

Good morning, goclark!

[goclark]

23. Yes -- I think I'll have my cousin drop me off

and let me drop it in that BOX.

Now that we have cell phones, I can call him when he can pick me up.

My voting place is on a busy street and there are not many places to park. There are many Seniors in the area.

[abumbyanyothername]

28. If you mail in your LA county ballot

you can confirm that it has been received.

Although it takes them about a week to get their site updated.

[goclark]

31. Thanks!

[K Gardner]

21. Yes, answered perfectly, thank you for all your hard work !

[phrigndumass]

22. yw, and likewise! :)

[grantcart]

26. If NC votes for Obama in early voting it will close down any hope

that McCain has to reach 270

you can find the link here to NC voting and follow it day by day

you will then have more info than most of the pundits on TV

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[Smuckies]

14. Thanks for sharing

Some good numbers up there. Thanks for sharing!

[phrigndumass]

19. yw, Smuckies :)

[Kaleko]

15. Mornin' phrig.

Have you found out any more info about why California is DOWN 9.68% in newly registered voters?

The number seems awfully high, even considering an exodus of people moving to other states for various reasons.

[phrigndumass]

20. I haven't found out more, but I hope someone here will share if they know

The California registration numbers are six weeks old, though, so they may be up since 9/5/08. When I checked the CA SOS website this morning, it hadn't been updated.

Someone mentioned it could be due to home foreclosures.

Goclark has a link upthread reporting Los Angeles has 200,000 more registered voters now than in 2004, so maybe the updated figures will balance out. Let's hope! Meanwhile, if I see a news story about California registration numbers and why they are lower, I'll post it for everyone.

Good morning, Kaleko!

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

24. Thanks for this and all of your other great work. Some good numbers I

found in your link to the early voting statistics:

North Carolina:
2008 2004
Party
Dem 55.2% 48.6%
Rep 27.8% 37.4%
None 17.0% 14.1%


Florida:
Party
Dem 44.7%
Rep 40.4%


New Mexico:
Party
Dem 55.7%
Rep 32.4%

[phrigndumass]

25. I'm impressed by those early voting statistics :)

It'll definitely help minimize the Election Day shenanigans by the republican party.

Thanks!

[grantcart]

27. North Carolina could end up being at the top of this list with one stop

registration and voting up to 11/1

[progressive_realist]

29. These numbers put a question mark by the polling in many states.

IMO. In the states where there is non-partisan registration, or where large numbers of new independents have registered, I don't know how pollsters can be making reliable models. I suspect there will be some major surprises on Nov 4th.

[d_b]

30. holy...

Go Alaska!