Saturday Morning Data Dump – 10/25 – A Few Tabs Narrow, Yet Obama Leads All But One

[phrigndumass]

(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 6.8%, or 51.0% to 44.2% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 7.0% for Obama (up from 6.4% last week). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 6.6% for Obama (up from 5.8% last week), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 7.1% (up from 6.7% last week) nationwide.

As the National Poll Widget below shows, Obama’s nationwide lead is +8.7% on average, or 1.9 points above what the state polls show for the popular vote (Obama +6.8%, see blue widget above). The national poll lead of Obama +8.7% is most similar to the lead Obama is seeing in the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity (Obama +7.1%, see blue widget above). In an ideal statistical world, these results would all be the same.





The differences in Obama’s lead between demographics have gotten smaller as the pollsters begin to use updated voter registration numbers and turnout probabilities. The range between Obama +6.6% (age demographics in the blue widget above) and Obama +7.1% (ethnic demographics) is only 0.5%, the smallest it has been this year. These small differences can be chalked up to poll noise and rounding, or it could mean that the pollsters are still a little behind in projecting turnout by age groups.

The widget below is a quick summary of where all the demographics currently stand. The graphs following show these statistics over time.







GENDER CROSSTABS













ETHNICITY CROSSTABS















AGE CROSSTABS






































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[gademocrat7]

1. Good morning, Mr. P.

Thanks for the analysis. Hope you have a good weekend. We are trying our best to turn Georgia blue.

[phrigndumass]

3. I'm on the edge of my seat with Georgia :)

Could it be possible? I hope so! The women's vote could tip it to Obama.

Good morning, gd7!

[Bicoastal]

2. I was thinking about this--it's not that Obama can't win over white people...

...it's that statistically NEARLY EVERY SINGLE PERSON voting for McCain is white. The number of black, asian, latino, native american, etc. people voting for McCain is EXTREMELY tiny, esp. compared to the number of distrustful whites.

That's how Obama can be losing the white vote and still be way ahead.

[phrigndumass]

4. Very good point!

It's a good thing our nation is a melting pot. Imagine if it weren't

Obama is performing better among white voters than either Kerry or Gore, but it still wouldn't be enough ... every vote from other ethnic groups helps us this year!

[Honeycombe8]

7. Not exactly. McSame would still be ahead in the white vote, no matter...

who else is voting for him. If he has X number of people voting for him that are white, and O has X number of white people voting for him, then McCain's number is either more or less than O's number. It has nothing to do with who else might be voting for either one.

Why O is still ahead, despite lower in white votes, is because O is not MUCH lower in white voters than McCain, but has a MUCH LARGER margin of ethnic voters than McCain. So O has a greater total number of voters.

[Smuckies]

5. I enjoyed your post

Thanks for posting. I enjoyed looking at the maps.

[phrigndumass]

6. Thanks, Smuckies :)

Welcome to DU!

[Honeycombe8]

8. I see that O is leading McSame among...SENIOR CITIZENS???!!!!! Gobama! nt

[phrigndumass]

10. Just barely, but he's leading nonetheless! :)

The Obama Campaign really knows how to make these numbers move in their direction, lol

[PBS Poll-435]

9. WHY can't he close the deal?

K & R 4 U!

[phrigndumass]

11. lol :)

I expect the republican message after the election is that Obama shouldn't have a mandate because he couldn't win among caucasian voters, lol

Thanks, prod!

[PBS Poll-435]

12. I think there is something wrong with your 18-24 graph

IBD/TIPP says McCain leads Obama by FIFTY points in that demo.

[phrigndumass]

13. ...

I had a mouthful of coffee when I read that, lol!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

14. kiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiicked and reccccccccccccccccccccc'd and thanks, phrig!

[phrigndumass]

15. Thanks, dms!

[PBS Poll-435]

16. This needs to be kicked and rec'd

Come on DU!

[phrigndumass]

17. ...

[goclark]

19. Keep kicked folks

[Liberal_in_LA]

18. Great analysis.

[phrigndumass]

20. Thanks, Lib :)

[XemaSab]

21. That is some fine looking data, sir!

[Odin2005]

22. I like the chart for my age group (18-24)! n/t.