Today's Polls: The End May Be Near, by Nate Silver -- Blowout on the menu, by Kos

[jefferson_dem]

:woohoo:

Today's Polls: The End May Be Near
from The Plank by Nate Silver

This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.

The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama.



We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.

Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.

To find good news for McCain, you have to go South -- to the deep South -- where new polling in Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana suggests that those states have yet to become competitive.

As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

--Nate Silver

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/23/today-s-polls-the-end-may-be-near.aspx

State of the Race: Blowout on the menu
by kos
Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 05:04:00 PM PDT

The Pollster.com averages from 9/15 to today. I've added a new column, "Over 50", to indicate those states in which a candidate is polling over 50 percent. Under 50, and you can worry about what undecided voters might do. Over 50 and things look far better for that candidate.

State EVs Poll Over 50? 10/14 Total EVs

Safe Obama states 190

MI 17 O+22.4 Y O+13.6 207
MN 10 O+13.0 Y O+9.7 217
NH 4 O+12.9 Y O+11.1 221
WI 10 O+12.4 Y O+12.1 231
IA 7 O+12.1 Y O+13.5 238
PA 21 O+10.8 Y O+14.1 259
NM 5 O+9.0 Y O+5.9 264
VA 13 O+8.7 Y O+7.9 277
OH 20 O+6.4 Y O+4.1 297
CO 9 O+5.8 Y O+8.9 306
MO 11 O+5.1 Y O+3.3 317
NV 5 O+3.8 N O+2.8 322
ND 3 O+2.9 N O+2.0 325
NC 15 O+2.8 N O+1.7 340
IN 11 O+2.8 N M+3.7 351
FL 27 O+2.6 N O+6.4 378

MT 3 M+0.3 N M+5.1 160
GA 15 M+4.7 N M+5.7 157
WV 5 M+6.6 N O+6.7 142
MS 6 M+9.9 N -- 137

Safe McCain states 131

Total: Obama 378, McCain 160 (Obama 372, McCain 166)

Pennsylvania has narrowed slightly, though it remains in double-digits. No reason to panic. Florida has shifted four points in McCain's direction, and remains a true toss-up state.

Once again, Virginia does Obama the honor of pushing past 270 votes, and at an 8.7 lead, Obama's victory margin is even stronger this week than it was last week. Amazingly, Obama has at least a five-point lead (and over 50 percent of his vote) in states totaling 318 EVs. Throw in the next three McCain states, and we're at 401 EVs, which would be epic.

Ohio, New Mexico, and Missouri are now over 50 percent for Obama, a welcome gain from last week. Georgia is now under 50 percent for McCain, and Florida dropped under 50 percent for Obama. I've got an Arkansas poll in the field in the next couple of days. Will it also be competitive? Am I getting greedy? Isn't the answer obviously "yes"?

Let's keep running up the score. All of you, no matter where you live, can contribute to an epic Obama victory, but you've got to fight to make it happen. You've got to fight for Democrats up and down your ballot. Leave everything on the road. Everything.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/23/164817/50/606/640122

[opihimoimoi]

1. Bad Day at Black Rock for Camp McFool.....Bad Timing, Bad Message, Bad Manners, Bad LUCK

McBad is stuck....shoulda went South with the Drakes....

[bluestateguy]

2. That list of polls might be the most beautiful thing I have ever seen

McCain's path to the White House is riddled with potholes.