The Daily Widget, Tues 10/21 – O-375, M-163 – Trends Peak; New Hampshire Weakens

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

Seventeen state polls were released yesterday, 15 of them in swing states. But this time Barack Obama is trailing in four of them: Missouri, Florida, Georgia and Ohio. Two of these four polls were conducted by Foxmussen (Florida and Ohio).

The good news is that John McCain is holding only a 2-point lead in Georgia, and two more polls released yesterday for Missouri and Ohio show Obama leading by 5 and 9 points, respectively. Although none of these states move between columns today, Florida does seem to be tightening.

Research 2000 conducted a New Hampshire poll over the weekend showing Obama leading by 7 points. Previous polling had New Hampshire in the Strong Obama column, but as old polls fall off, New Hampshire moves into the Weak Obama column today. This is the only state to change columns today.

A quick glance at the trend lines on the electoral vote and popular vote graphs below indicates that Obama has reached a peak in this cycle and his numbers are beginning to edge downward a bit. The average for the daily tracking polls is starting to fall below the overall average for national polls (see Figure 4c below), which is usually a clue that a peak has been reached. With no game changer on the table, though, I have a feeling that the clock will run out well before this affects Obama’s numbers in any significant way.

Well wishes and good thoughts to Barack’s ailing grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, and their family.



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Colorado Obama 51, McCain 46 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 49 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Georgia Obama 44, McCain 46, B2, N2 (Democracy Corps, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 50, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 10/18 +/- 3.9, 655 LV)
Missouri Obama 44, McCain 45, Nader 1 (Suffolk University, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 49, McCain 44 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 43 (Research 2000, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 51, McCain 44, Barr 2 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19 +/- 2.8, 1200 LV)
North Carolina Obama 51, McCain 48 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 42, B1, N1 (Suffolk University, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 49 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Oregon Obama 52, McCain 39, B1, N1 (Grove Insight, 10/9 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 40, B1, N2 (Susquehanna, 10/18 +/- 3.7, 700 LV)
Virginia Obama 54, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/19 +/- 3.9, 652 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/19 +/- 3.9, 641 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


.

[tekisui]

1. 14 Days!

Just two weeks. Now is the time the Obama volunteers have said, "Be ready to be blown away." They are mobilizing and getting out the vote.

During the Primaries, the poll movements, especially drastic moves, that occurred 10 or so days out weren't seen in the actual voting. I think today's state polls are likely pretty close to what November 4th will look like. Although, I still think we will see the "Obama Effect", that being scores of new voters and voters who whisper "Don't tell my neighbor, but I'm voting for Obama. Shh!"

Thanks again, phrign, for leading us along the way with a daily guide!

:bounce: :hi: :kick:

[No Elephants]

2. As always, thank you.

[phrigndumass]

11. yw, NE :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. It should be an exciting two weeks :)

Polls will be coming out of the woodwork. We're ready!

"Obama Effect" ... that phrase may have some teeth. I can see certain people biting the bullet and voting for Obama this year.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[Coexist]

3. K & R!

[phrigndumass]

12. (pssst ... Hi)

(thanks!)

:hi:

[mmonk]

5. Yes, I hope the clock runs out before any negative trend sets in.

[phrigndumass]

7. I'm sure that will be the case :)

The Dow would need to jump back over 14,000 and gas prices would need to fall below $2.00 a gallon for Obama to lose ...

:donut: Good morning, mmonk! :hi:

[mmonk]

20. Morning.

Thanks for your work.:hi:

[mmonk]

28. And there's this from my state.

Obama, Hagan lead up

Obama's lead in North Carolina is widening, according to the latest numbers by Public Policy Polling.

The Democratic firm surveyed 1,200 likely voters on Oct. 18 and 19 and found that Obama has a 51-44 lead over McCain. That is the biggest lead yet for Obama in PPP's surveys.

PPP said Obama is faring well with independent voters, with a 51-33 lead over McCain. McCain leads 55-39 among white voters, while Obama leads 92-6 among black voters.

In the same poll, PPP's results show Democratic challenger Kay Hagan is piling up big numbers among suburban voters in her race against Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1262661.html

[phrigndumass]

29. It would be awesome if both Obama and Hagan win in NC :)

The number to watch for Obama among white voters is 40% ... that would be a safe margin for any Democratic candidate there, and the other demographics would carry him to a win.

Dole would probably win in any other year, but she's swimming against the tide this year.

Good article :D

[fight4my3sons]

6. Good morning :)

:bounce: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

9. Hi, mommy with a sick kid :)

Hope Lil Math Dude is feeling better today! :bounce:

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

17. thanks :)

:loveya:

He's just the tiniest bit better. :)

[catgirl]

8. I'll be working my tush off in NH! (nt)

[phrigndumass]

10. Thank you! :)

:donut: Good morning, catgirl! :hi:

[blue-kite]

13. Hey P boy... this is unacceptable news.

Don't you know we're all good news addicted now and we only accept upward trends, regardless of the veracity of the trend itself. So I suggest tomorrow you fabricate all the polls (including Oklahoma of course) to show Obama currently leading by 30 to 50 percent nationally, with .000004569 possibility of voting error.
Failing this basic request I'd like you build me a time machine so I can fast-forward to when the polls close and I have started drinking my Italian brut!

[phrigndumass]

15. LOL ... it's back to the future for you!

There's hidden code in these widget posts that give directions on how to build a time machine. It's eco-friendly, runs on baby drool. This is how I arrive at my projections, lol

You should give it a go ... two weeks from now all the water fountains in the world will be squirting out the finest Italian brut :)

Cheers! :hi:

[Demeter]

33. Baby Drool?

It's been a while, and the kids didn't drool all that significantly (they just cut their teeth and got over it quickly), but I cannot recall any significant properties of baby drool.

Just about any other bodily fluid, yes, but baby drool?

I'm thinking outside events will provide the next impetus that will push Obama over the 50% in a big way, just in time for Nov. 4th. While BushCo has tried to batten the hatches and lock up the activists, the world is bigger than they are, and maybe even more unstable. (Hard to imagine, I know).

All you have to do is look at the two major candidates side by side. Which one looks Presidential? Which one looks like, as they said of Nixon, you wouldn't buy a used car from him? I rest my case.

[phrigndumass]

36. I used to hear that a lot: "Would you buy a used car from him?"

I think it was my oldest brother who used to say that, usually about republicans. Brings back memories! :D

Baby drool is mommy love in a highly concentrated liquid form. Lots of engines run on mommy love!

You may be right about Obama climbing over 50% and rising ... He jumped back over 50% today on RCP.

:hi:

[gademocrat7]

14. Good morning, Mr. P.

Thanks for the update.. Glad to see Georgia moving some.

[phrigndumass]

16. Ditto about Georgia :)

:donut: Good morning, gd7! :hi:

[a kennedy]

18. Morning P.......and thank you but.......what's this???

Minnesota Obama 50, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 10/18 +/- 3.9, 655 LV) and
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/19 +/- 3.9, 641 LV) indicating STRONG Obama to weak Obama???? :cry: Hope this isn't a trend, and I'm hopeful. GPG (a week to heal now, and all lies about Brett) :hug:

[phrigndumass]

23. It seems a bit off compared to other polls, doesn't it?

I always like to see another pollster confirm it, though.

:donut: Good morning! GPG! :hi:

[jakem]

19. So, I know we have a long couple of weeks to go... but after the election-

what will the Morning Widget tell us?
How will it prepare me for for my day?


I suppose I will have to enjoy it while it lasts...
(I will enjoy it more when you ratchet it up to 400!)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

24. We need to wean ourselves off the widget after the election, lol

I'll get started on the 2010 elections on November 5th so we can avoid that (not)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[IsItJustMe]

21. K&R

If you like polls and polling data, this is your one stop and shop thread here.

[jakem]

22. wow! DW now comes with its own endorsement and a tagline!

still needs a jingle...


* when you're feeling down and out
* tv makes you want to shout
* internets have bottomed out
* visit... the Daily Widget!

* if you need a break from rage
* all those pundits not so sage
* then it's time to turn the page
* visit... the Daily Widget!
* visit... the Daily Widget!

[phrigndumass]

25. Now imagine the cast of WKRP in Cincinnati singing that, lol

:rofl:

[jakem]

27. Funny you mentioned it...

That is how everything sounds in my head...

:wtf:



Daily Widget... the Cadillac of polls, you're the... Cadillac of polls... you're the....

:rofl:

[phrigndumass]

26. Thanks, IIJM :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Lochloosa]

30. Three votes in the bag for Florida. I always add 2 points for Obama

when it's a Fox News/Rasmussen poll.

[phrigndumass]

31. lol ... you're probably right on the nose

Foxmussen does tend to favor the republicans. I wonder if they're push-polling like Zogby ...

:donut: Good morning, Lochloosa! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

32. Lunch kick

:kick:

[grantcart]

34. Indiana didn't disappoint

[phrigndumass]

35. lol ...

McCain should have zero electoral votes in his Lean column tomorrow. Vacuum! What remains to be seen is whether this vacuum will be filled from the right or from the left.

:hi: