It looks like McCain is expecting to lose BOTH Colorado and Virginia ...

[Alhena]

This video was posted earlier, but it's worth another look:

http://thepage.time.com/john-king-on-cnn/

You can hear King's statement that Obama was expected to win Iowa, NM and Colorado but that McCain hopes to win Pennsylvania, along with the other battleground states like Virginia, Florida and Ohio. The real head scratcher for me was the statement that Nevada, with its 5 electoral votes was crucial to McCain.

As best I can tell, Nevada's 5 EVs are only crucial in one scenario. Assuming the above is correct, if Obama wins Virginia but McCain wins Pennsylvania then whoever wins Nevada's 5 electoral votes will reach the 270 threshhold.

Look at the excellent map prepared by Jefferson Dem and you'll see what I mean:



Switching Nevada from McCain to Obama would put Obama right at 270 electoral votes. But if McCain were really counting on winning Virginia, along with Pennsylvania, then Nevada would be irrelevant. Nevada is also irrelevant if Obama wins Pennsylvania and Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, regardless of what happens in Virginia. So it sounds to me like McCain's internal poll numbers might show that both Colorado and Virginia are lost causes. His internal polls in Pennsylvania are obviously closer than the 14 point margin the public polls show, but they can't be that far off. I'm not worried about Pennsylvania at all.

[gemlake]

1. I think McCain believes VA is lost, in which case CO doesn't matter

He needs to peel off a state like PA to make up for VA.

Look at the CNN map. By flipping VA to blue, Obama can lose all the battleground states (CO, MO, NV, OH, FL, NC) plus New Mexico and still win.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

2. The PA route is the only chance he has

but that's a pretty slim chance. With PA he can afford to lose VA, but I don't think he can hold on to all of FL MO NC ND NV and OH.

Not that I think he can get PA. McCain-Palin's unfavourables are too high and Obama needs to eat a baby on air in order to lose.

[Thrill]

3. Latest Polls out of PA show Obama up 8 points

[PaDem]

4. which poll is that?

I haven't seen one in single digits for a few weeks. That said I think it's closer than eight in reality, otherwise McCain wouldn't be resorting to this strategy.

[Thrill]

5. Pitt Tribune Poll released today.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/breaking/s_594239.html

[Hamlette]

8. Nate has the average in PA as Obama up by 9.1

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

anyone have stats from PA at this point in 2004? We only won by 2% last time but we lost CO the last three prez elections and VA at least the last 4.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. A Strategic Vision poll had Kerry up one this time four years ago.

[Hamlette]

22. thanks, homey n/t

[saltpoint]

6. McCain is stepping into the batter's box with a grocery bag on his head

and on the mound is Barack Obama, with the liveliest fast ball ever thrown in the majors.

[JeffR]

12. Great analogy!

:rofl:

[saltpoint]

15. Hey JeffR. Howdy.

I voted this morning. For O and Joe.

I'm counting the days!

[JeffR]

17. Hey OC.

Mailing my absentee ballot tomorrow. I have my Obama shirt freshly laundered and ready for the occasion.

[saltpoint]

18. You dress good and you vote proper.

Slap that stamp on that sucker with conviction!

[JeffR]

20. And with a profound sense of joy.

Deep down joy.

[saltpoint]

21. Let me stand with you on that, good person.

We are long thirsty for good news and the Obama campaign is delicious water.

[StevieM]

7. That makes a lot of sense. McCain wants to pull of a trifecta, like Gore sought to do in 2000

by winning PA, FL and MI. For McCain the trifecta is winning FL, OH and PA. If he can do that then he is likely to hold NC and MO. That means that if he wins Nevada then he wins the election. Obama could survivie a McCain trifecta if he won Nevada....like you said, that would bring him to exactly 270.

I was actually just thinking about this scenario earlier today. Are you familiar with the site 270towin? You should check it out....it's a lot of fun. Actually, I think that's where Jefferson Dem created this map, LOL. But the address is: 270towin.com

Good point about CO....if McCain loses VA then he doesn't need CO, except possibly as a replacement for a different state like MO or NV if he loses one of them. But without VA then McCain definitely needs PA--and our polling numbers in PA are really strong.

I can't imagine McCain pulling out of Colorado. It would just look too weak and shut down a lot of different avenues. I could see him pulling his ads from Maine, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico. But I think he has to keep his ads up in VA, CO and NH.

Anyway, in case you aren't familiar with it....here is the site:

Steve

[On the Road]

9. He Must be Counting on PA

although I can't imagine why. Pa is less likely to flip than Colorado, Virginia, or Michigan.

[PBS Poll-435]

11. Pennsylvania.... BWAH...ROFL...

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

[Stagecoach]

13. I think it's a money issue

My guess is they're running out of money. Instead of spending money (ads, airflights, hotels, caterers, etc.) on 2 states that has a total of 22 electoral votes, he can spend money in just 1 state that has just as many electoral votes.

[mvd]

14. Yuck, I hate seeing my state in red

Won't happen, though. :-)

[fizzgig]

16. i will believe a mccain victory in co when i see it

i know we're up here, but i think the conservatives still have enough swing here

[krawhitham]

19. Somebody in the McCain camp need to but the crack pipe down

They can not get PA, it is not even close enough to steal