New CNN poll Obama 51 (-2) McCain 46 (+1)

[jezebel]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/20/cnn-poll-race-may-be-tightening/#more-25580

Latest CNN/ORC Poll of likely voters:
Barack Obama: 51 percent
John McCain: 46 percent

WASHINGTON (CNN) — With two weeks and one day until election day, a new national poll of likely voters suggests the race for the White House may be tightening up.

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday, 51 percent of likely voters questioned Friday through Sunday back Barack Obama for president, with 46 percent supporting John McCain. That 5 point advantage for Senator Obama, D-Illinois, is down from an 8 point edge he held over Senator McCain, R-Arizona, in the last CNN/ORC national poll, conducted October 3-5.

One reason behind the tightening of the race appears to be a drop in the number of people who think McCain, if elected, will mostly carry out President Bush's policies. Forty-nine percent of those questioned in the new survey say McCain would mostly carry out Bush's policies, down from 56 percent in the previous poll.

"It's clear from the final presidential debate that one of McCain's top priority was to distance himself from Bush," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "It looks like McCain has convinced growing numbers of Americans that his policies would be different than Bush. The next task is to convince voters that his policies would be better than Bush's and on the economic front at least, that may be a more difficult task."

more at link

[Curtland1015]

1. Mmm... big drop for one day.

Not that I'm worried, but I wonder why the big 3 point move?

Joe the Plumber? :sarcasm:

[Brotherjohn]

14. It's not a daily tracking poll. Last one was Oct. 3-5. (nt)

[Teaser]

18. You're mixing up your polls

This is not a tracking poll. This is from last week.

[FrenchieCat]

2. They have been dying for this narrative.....

CNN, Make it so!

[WI_DEM]

3. it will be interesting if they release how many dems vs. rep interviewed compared to the earlier

poll, but I think some tightening is inevitable, but I think the final weekend like in 1980 you're going to see a big tide towards Obama.

[Faygo Kid]

4. What about the battlegrounds? These numbers don't tell the story.

I can't believe it's this close, quite frankly. It's got to be the racial effect.

[mvd]

7. CNN's framing is weird

It's like they are trying to say voters don't want to vote for Obama, and that if they can find one possible thing separating McSame from Bush that they will vote McSame. There's that liberal media again!

[Arrowhead2k1]

5. Don't worry guys...

COLON BOWEL GONNA FIX IT!!!!1

[Curtland1015]

6. Oh wait... was this poll conducted over the weekend?

That would explain the drop...

[Stagecoach]

8. The Colin Powell endorsement

only accounted for 1 of the 3 days polling was done. Be interesting what it was for just Sunday.

[leftynyc]

21. This is not a tracking poll n/t

[Two Sheds]

9. Doesn't bother me

46-41 would bother me. That poll, if accurate, tells me two things: O's over 50 and there aren't many undecideds left.
A five percentage point win in the PV on 11/4 would be a blowout. It would be more than twice W's margin over Kerry and would mean an EV margin of well over 100 votes.

[WeDidIt]

10. Interesting numbers

They've been wanting a "the race is tightening" narrative.

[high density]

11. So in other words, Obama still wins the useless metric of popular vote

Thanks CNN.

[Median Democrat]

12. CNN/Fox Have Been Ignoring The Economy and Focusing On Acorn, Smears and Race

There really has not been much negative coverage of John McCain himself or his policies. Specifically, what is the difference between McCain's rhetoric and Bush's rhetoric. Instead, the MSM has been propping up McCain.

[Stagecoach]

13. Also notice no decimal points

They maybe saying 51-46....but maybe if get into the decimal spots, it could very well be 51.4 to 45.6.....by rounding to the nearest point, they could be making a 5.8 point lead look like 5.0.

[RiverStone]

15. At least the "suggestion" of tightening will make sure Obama gets a HUGE voter turnout

It's already HUGE of course! :)

[JBTO26]

16. Nothing wrong with this poll

Discrediting every poll that shows the race tighgtening is just silly. WTF !!!

Even Obama himself said today that the race will tighten, cos that's what always happen in the final weeks of an election.

[bushisanidiot]

17. With Obama over 50%, it can't tighten up much.

.

[Thrill]

19. There are 2 weeks to go. National Polls don't mean SHIT

Pardon the French.

Its all about the state polls now

[Schulzz]

20. I'm wondering where McCain has gained support - battleground state polls don't show anything yet.

The only state where McCain had good results lately is WV. Some other state polls are even showing a widening Obama lead.

[Stagecoach]

22. The biggest number to keep an eye on is the one's you don't see

And that's the amount of undecideds.....that number keeps getting lower and lower....so there's not a whole lot of upside for McCain being at 46 percent with only 3 percent undecided.

[GreenTea]

23. Who didn't think the polls wouldn't have McCain within a few points on election day?

Just close enough to easily steal, again!

[beachmom]

24. Really, guys. A poll of polls is simply more reliable.

Open Left is not one to spin in Obama's favor, but they show that this has been a remarkably stable race for a couple of weeks now:

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9219

They average 5 tracking polls. Check this out:

The margin is very stable. Since Oct. 13 it's been 6.6, 6.7, 6.3, 6.3, 6.9, 6.4 and 6.3.

I think there were some polls way out there that showed Obama leading by double digits that are now out of the mix. But I think the range of 5 to 7 in favor of Obama is where this race is and has been for some time.

[Overseas]

25. Yee Haw, They DID IT ! Republican networks made McCain numbers go up!

Chuck Todd must be delighted. He may get his bonus this time.

The Republican owned media really succeeded this week. They jumped on the Republican bandwagon to pretend that voter fraud was a real issue, even though they knew there was no "there" there because some ethical attorneys in the Bush DOJ refused to hear those cases due to lack of evidence.

But they didn't let the truth stop them. The reporters all talked over fraud and those darn community organizers stealing votes as though it actually had merit. And that was okay because they were just discussing campaign strategies, you see. And there were new press releases, so they could pretend it was something new, rather than a discredited attempt to disguise the Republicans' own election manipulation.

They've got to celebrate vastly now, before the Powell bounce comes into play. We don't know if McHate's dedicated supporter, Tom Brokaw, managed to offset that endorsement enough.

[alcibiades_mystery]

26. So McCain can win 100% of undecideds and still lose

I'll take it.

:rofl:

Polls consistently have Obama at 49-53%. That's devastating this late in a race.

With Obama's cash advantage, ground organization, message control, and electoral vote strategy, it's more than devastating. The narrative of a "tightening race" is drowned out by the real narrative of a lock at the top.