Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

On the (Supposed) Poll Shrinkage...

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
UnrepentantUnitarian Donating Member (887 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 06:51 AM
Original message
On the (Supposed) Poll Shrinkage...
Edited on Mon Oct-20-08 06:57 AM by UnrepentantUnitarian
Twice already this morning I've heard the tv talking heads say that even in spite of all the good news Obama's been getting his lead in the "polls is actually shinking." I'm sure this is what the networks would most like to see--for their own selfish reasons--but it's just not well-founded. Yes, the composite numbers have shown a drop of about one percent...from 6 to 5 percent...but the "previous seven days" is always changing. Only the most recent polls are considered there, and in this case a couple of the polls showing double-digit leads have "dropped off." These are the big weekly or twice-monthly polls like ABC and NBC. (The next time they report the composite number will likely once again go right back where it was.)

Again, the networks are looking for a horserace, and are not interested in those pesky "devils within the details." That, after all, would take some solid journalism...some actual work.

Just to state the obvious once again, it's not about national numbers anyway: It's about who wins each individual state. Even if everybody--and I mean everybody--in Texas, California, New York and Florida were to vote one way, it still wouldn't be enough to win the election. It's all about the Electoral College, and those national numbers just don't speak to that. (Good luck convincing the talking heads to focus on that though.)

So...the "shrinkage" meme continues, and indeed there may be some in the next few days, although that other meme that's going around which says that tightening is inevitable seems a little dubious to me. They've never given any solid evidence of what dynamics are at work to cause that. (Maybe the independents tend to finally break evenly, in both directions?) Oh well, I'm rambling. Just wanted to vent about this "shrinkage thing" this morning.


Edit: My sources for the above are electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com.









Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 06:55 AM
Response to Original message
1. Tightening Is Natural
That being said, Obama is in good shape...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
UnrepentantUnitarian Donating Member (887 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Natural...or normal/usual?
Are you saying that a landslide marking a real seachange in public sentiment would be unnatural? Or, just unusual? (Just trying to understand this line of thinking, that's all.)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:04 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Depends
I am reminded that Kennedy beat Nixon 49.7-49.6 and Carter beat Ford 50.1 -48.0% when the environment was arguably as bad as for Republicans...


If Obama's current five to seven point pop vote lead holds it will be an Electoral College landslide...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
UnrepentantUnitarian Donating Member (887 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:06 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. I'll take that electoral landslide.
Might even mean getting to bed at a decent hour that night.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:07 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Yeah
I never went to sleep in 00...That was a bummer... 04 wasn't any more pleasant because the exit polls wrongly raised my hopes
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:08 AM
Response to Original message
6. Keep in mind that RCP doesn't include Research 2000's daily tracking numbers
... and they include three different sets of Gallup's daily tracking numbers, which began about a week ago.

Good post :hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
UnrepentantUnitarian Donating Member (887 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. Liked your "daily widget" post.
I bookmarked it. Thanks for putting all that together for us.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:09 AM
Response to Original message
7. If double digits is shrinking, give me more.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
a kennedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
8. Just keep you eyes on this everyday........and you'll be fine.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
JoePhilly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:17 AM
Response to Original message
9. The number to watch is 46% ....
Obama almost never falls below that number ... McCain almost never passes above it.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
barack the house Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:25 AM
Response to Original message
11. I get the feeling people would be less likely to poll after any early votes.>
Edited on Mon Oct-20-08 07:26 AM by barack the house
I think the polls are only reflecting those who are left to vote. With less figures for our side as we already voted in some cases.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
12. What these polls fail to mention is that Obama never seems to duck below 48%
Edited on Mon Oct-20-08 07:32 AM by alcibiades_mystery
His variation for the last three weeks has been 48-53%.

Meanwhile, McCain's variation has been 41-45%.

Once in a while you'll get a poll (Zogby) that places Obama at the low end of his variation, and Mccain at the high end of his. These then appear "close." But the real story is, first, the significant gap between the ranges in even that generous reading, and second, the hardening of support for Obama. We're seeing nothing like the eight point swings from 50-42% for Obama as we saw as recently as September. The MSM and the GOPers are putting their hopes in the undecideds, but the support at the top seems to have hardened considerably. McCain would have to take something like 80% of the undecideds. It's technically possible, like pulling the last King on the river to make a straight, but it's close to improbable at this point. Two additional factors: first, early voting means a lot of that firm support is already locked in as actual votes. Second, people become very suspicious of negative attacks this late in a campaign, since they seem self-serving. The reason you see pollsters like Rollins and Lutz predicting Obama victories is simple: probabilities. With Obama's support running so steady near or above 50%, a last minute charge is not enough. McCain needs erosion, and we haven't really seen any.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. A Lot Of Undecideds Will End Up Not Voting
~
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Alter Ego Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:35 AM
Response to Original message
14. They're fucking lying.
They absolutely need a horse race, or no one will watch Election Night.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
crazy_vanilla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-20-08 07:36 AM
Response to Original message
15. that will make more democrats go out and vote as they
are not going to be complacent about Obama's lead and stay home

But you're right, I think these polls are crap. Obama is at least 10 pts. ahead.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
machI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 05:23 AM
Response to Original message
16. The pollsters tighten the requirements to be counted as election time draws near
A year ago they would just ask 'the man on the street' who they would vote for. A year ago the top of the list was Rudy Giuliana and Hillary Clinton.

As time goes on, they only record people who can vote

Then it tightens to people registered to vote

Just before the election the pollsters only want to hear from people who are 'extremely very likely absolutely positively' going to vote.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
markevil Donating Member (111 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 06:14 AM
Response to Original message
17. Shrinkage??? Maybe he's a grower not a shower.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Fri Jul 25th 2014, 02:50 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC