Saturday Morning Data Dump, 10/18 – Obama Winning Every Demographic Except One

[phrigndumass]

(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a weekly (or whenever the mood strikes me) summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 5.6%, or 50.4% to 44.9% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 6.4% for Obama (up from 3.8% last week). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 5.8% for Obama (up from 3.8% last week), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 6.7% (up from 4.2% last week) nationwide.

As the National Poll Widget below shows, Obama’s nationwide lead is +7.7% on average, or 2.1 points above what the state polls show for the popular vote (Obama +5.6%, see blue widget above). The national poll lead of Obama +7.7% is most similar to the lead Obama is seeing in the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity (Obama +6.7%, see blue widget above). In an ideal statistical world, these results would all be the same.





What can we surmise from all this? Let’s look at what we know to be true. Some of the states (a decreasing number) haven’t been polled for a couple weeks, but the country as a whole has been polled every day by multiple sources. We may conclude that the state results aren’t as up-to-date as they could be, and the topline result from the state polls would tend to reflect the national polls if each state were polled every day. After all, the whole is the sum of all the parts.

As for the difference between the topline crosstabs and the ethnicity crosstabs for the state polls, we may also conclude that pollsters either aren’t projecting a higher turnout rate for minority voters this year, or they aren’t weighting their polls properly to reflect a projected increase in the turnout rate among minority voters. The same could be said for younger voters this year.




GENDER CROSSTABS


The men’s vote finally comes around this week. A majority of men nationwide are now supporting Barack Obama for President. We saw this demographic tightening last week, and now Obama is leading by an average of just slightly less than 1% among men.











ETHNICITY CROSSTABS


(Note: I rescaled all the graphs in this section this week to the same scale, 0% to 100%.)

The only demographic where Obama is currently trailing is among white voters. He trails McCain by only 7% nationwide, though. Obama is well outperforming both Al Gore and John Kerry in this demographic. Meanwhile, Obama is currently winning 90% among African American voters and 60% among Latino voters nationwide.














AGE CROSSTABS


Last week Obama led in every age group below age 65. Senior voters have come around in the past week and are now supporting Obama over McCain by a very tiny 0.3% margin on average. Obama is now leading in every age group. However, the race is beginning to tighten a bit among voters age 30 to 39.






































.

[cliffordu]

1. I like it. thanks again, Phrig!!

[phrigndumass]

4. yw, cliff :)

Diving into these numbers is how I avoid the emotional rollercoaster of this race, lol

[cliffordu]

5. I look for your work DAILY to calm down and come back to earth......

Yours and that no good Grantcart's.....

[phrigndumass]

8. That no good grantcart has a great head on his shoulders, doesn't he?

Too bad there's a bum eye stuck in his head

I wonder if he has a gut like Buddha ...

[cliffordu]

12. I talked to his mom the other day, she says he never comes out of her basement

any more.....

She's worried about vitamin D deficiency...

[phrigndumass]

14. Ha! Did you know that his mother lives in a methodist church?

When he says he's going to a meeting in the basement of a methodist church, he's actually going downstairs in his mother's basement and logging on DU, lol

[grantcart]

16. Presbyterian never Methodist

[phrigndumass]

17. LOL

[cliffordu]

20. ROFl. I thought you were a druid.....

[PermanentRevolution]

2. I suppose 12:30am technically qualifies as Saturday Morning...

Really good to see Obama closing the gap in the 65+ demographics.

[phrigndumass]

6. I plan on sleeping in tomorrow, lol

Agreed on the 65+ voters ... wise people who know what a McCain presidency could do to their sense of security and livelihood.

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. Strange that he seems to have fallen slightly amongst women, but it's hardly noticeable

and McCain seems to have flattened out against them so I doubt it's the start of a trend back towards him.

[phrigndumass]

9. Not sure, but it might have something to do with 30-something females

The race is also tightening among thirtysomethings.

It could be that thirtysomething women like Gov. Palin in the same way that pre-teen girls like the Hannah Montana and the High School Musical. Palin is bubblegum to them, I guess.

[FVZA_Colonel]

13. Well, the more we get out the message on what McCain thinks of Women's "Health"

(as he'd put it), the more support amongst them he'll probably lose.

[Kool Kitty]

22. Hanna Montana would probably be a

better candidate.

[phrigndumass]

23. lol

[FrenchieCat]

7. Looking awfully good!

Plus, on Larry King, Ed Schultz said that Barack was winning White Independents now.

[phrigndumass]

10. That's a great sign! Thanks for sharing that, Frenchie :)

Yet more proof that Barack Obama is a once-in-a-generation candidate.

[RagAss]

11. Women will vote 60-40 for Barack....my prediction.

[phrigndumass]

15. I wouldn't be surprised

[grantcart]

18. Why can't Obama close the with African Americans

There must be 75 still holding out.

[phrigndumass]

19. ...

[phrigndumass]

24. |

[cliffordu]

21. Isn't that at that school for the blind?? The one run by the RNC???

[TexasObserver]

25. you do great work

[phrigndumass]

34. Thanks, TO :)

[fight4my3sons]

26. Good morning!

for the morning crowd.

[phrigndumass]

30. Good afternoon :)

I slept in, lol

[Hokie]

27. Very enlightening post

I go back to what one of Obama's advisers (I think it was Plouffe) said about the Gallup and other daily tracking polls and how over-hyped they were. I don't expect them to change the message or the tactics substantially these final two weeks. I am glad McCain is ramping up the dirty campaign now and not next week. The dirt will become the story soon more than the Obama is a terrorist message McCain is pushing.

[phrigndumass]

31. Thanks, Hokie :)

Good observations

[Hokie]

35. I enjoy your posts

Sometimes you have to wade through a bit to find the good stuff here but it is usually worth the trip.

[gademocrat7]

28. Good morning, Mr. P.

Appreciate the data dump.

[phrigndumass]

32. Thanks, gd7 :)

My dump is appreciated, sounds like an episode of South Park (oh gawd, that was tacky)

[Kaleko]

29. For a moment there I stopped biting my nails.

Those are some good-looking charts!

Now I'll nibble on some breakfast. It's 9:13 on the West Coast, and here's a top o'the morning to you, phrig.

[phrigndumass]

33. It's still morning there, great ... so ...

Good morning, Kaleko!

[Kaleko]

36. Kiiiiiick

for the lunchtime crowd and overall goodness

[JBoy]

37. K&R. Love them curves.

[Demeter]

38. Good Morning, P-Man!

What's that? It's 7 PM? Well, I didn't have time before....

I wonder if that lagging demographic is the "Bradley effect" nonsense, or rather, the racism contingent.

I suspect the Bradley effect was the result of poorly worded poll question that allowed too much hope and not enough accuracy.

Anyway, that's all the thinking I'm capable of today. Hope you got some rest...

[phrigndumass]

39. lol :)

The white voter demographic is the one group where Obama is trailing, but that's normal. He's doing better in that demographic than either Kerry or Gore did.

That's also about as much thinking as I could muster ...

Good night!

[Demeter]

40. Doing Better Than Kerry or Gore Among White Folk

Now THAT'S irony for you!

[greenmutha]

41. Thanks for your hard work.

This is all very encouraging. (Too late to rec, dammit!)

[phrigndumass]

42. yw, greenmutha :)