OK, I can understand one skewed poll, but two?

[lancdem]

Does anyone else find that odd that TWO polls are apparently so out of whack? I'm pretty sure no polls after the DNC oversampled Dems.

[Democat]

1. Every poll I don't agree with is fraud, all that agree with me are right!

:)

[lancdem]

7. My point is with the methodology

which is has been shown to be seriously flawed. I'm not saying Bush didn't get a bounce, but these two polls exaggerate it because they oversampled Repubs.

[shockingelk]

18. Why do you see it as flawed?

Here's a graphic of when the polls were taken compared to when the polls were taken during the DNC convention: http://fearofclowns.com/2004/09/effect-of-conventions-on-polls.html

It shows that both candidates got similar boosts from their conventions, Bush a little more but within the margin of error.

It's what you'd expect to see if both conventions boosted their candidate similarly.

[liberalnurse]

2. Republicans sign their paychecks.....

Enough said......

[shivaji]

13. If you are correct, then why was Kerry leading in polls before the

repug convention?

[quinnox]

3. It is a little curious

If I was conspiracy minded, I would almost think maybe there was something strange about these two polls coming out so quickly with a very similar bounce. And then further, I would think how unfortunate this Hurricane Frances is for Bush campaign to distract from the coverage that they would like of this major swing in the race.

But I'm not.

Let's see what happens in a week or so and if this is confirmed by other polls. It might be accurate. But I doubt it.

[bigwillq]

4. The only polls that matter are on Nov.2

Pass it on.

[Meshuga]

5. They probably asked people as they were leaving the RNC

Time and Newsweek used delegates from each state at the RNC as sample. :-)

[scarletwoman]

6. According to CBS Evening News, the Newsweek poll right after the DNC

showed KERRY with a 10 point lead. So Newsweek polls have worked both ways now.

I think it's time to stop sweating these polls. The one thing we can certain of is the numbers WILL keep changing over the next 2 months. We just have to work our butts off to make sure they change in our favor by Nov. 2.

sw

[danilche]

8. It's not as bad as it looks

Time poll did not release internals, but Newsweek did. Guess what? They oversampled Republicans, but that's nothing, because they showed Democrats referring Bush by five points.

No, the real kicker is -- they oversampled military households. By a factor of ten. This is what skewed the poll so much.

As to Time poll -- remember, these are the guys who showed Bush after DNC with a 4-point lead; so by Time poll, Bush only got a ~6-point bounce... and they pushed leaners, which they hadn't done before, which is itself a methodological outrage.

It seems that both Times and Newsweek polling groups have been subjected to some bizarre influences.

[Arugula Latte]

11. Welcome to DU, danilche!

:hi: :toast:

Glad to have ya!

[danilche]

17. Thanks n/t

[zaj]

12. Where do you read the Newsweek internals?

[danilche]

16. On Kos

It's all over Daily Kos. Just pop on over for a look-see.

[bigwillq]

14. Hello

Welcome to DU!

[indie_voter]

9. I was upset but then I realized

Being up in the polls is a double edge sword. The key is getting out the vote. If the perception is your candidate is going to win, then you aren't as motivated to vote, especially if you are on the fence. Bush's support (except for the rabid loons) is soft.

Granted, it can be demoralizing to believe your candidate is going to lose, which is why the other polls are so important. Also, the Kerry Campaign fighting hard and loud will be a great motivator!

I think Kerry is going to win big, but I confess to a moment or two of fear he won't. ;)

[Crachet2004]

10. Time and Newsweek want a story...

And the story will be: Bush blows big lead. Watch and see.

By next tuesday, CBS or someone else pretty major, will have a poll out, with a larger sample and better methodology, showing Bush drizzling back...if he ever broke out to begin with.

Look, their convention was dull and boring until Zell, then it became loud and hateful. Bush's speech by itself would have had to give them that 14 point bounce, and I know damn well it simply wasn't that good.

They are lying about how well things are going in Iraq and Afghanistan, and about the economic numbers as well...and things are not going to get better.

I will bet in one week, we are talking neck and neck again.

[Darby]

15. OK..I can understand one stolen ELECTION....

If they will steal an election, they will fix a poll. Polls plural.