If McCain wins (steals) the election... Here's how it will happen.

[FlyingSquirrel]

I've been over and over this. There's only one path to victory for McCain now IMO.

He's lost Florida. He's given up on Michigan. New Mexico has been in Obama's column too long to be plausibly stolen. He has no chance in PA.

Washington State is a very unlikely gamble even considering the Governor's race rematch (Dino Rossi - R vs. Chris Gregoire - D, in which Gregoire prevailed by 133 votes after three recounts in 2004). McCain has never led and the vote is too difficult to steal there.

That leaves only one possible way for McCain to win. I don't think he'll pull it off, but I'm posting this to warn people in those states to be especially cautious and vigilant and active.

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McCain starts off with his base.

MT, LA, AZ, AR, ND, MS, SD, GA, TX, KY, SC, AK, AL, KS, TN, NE, OK, WY, ID, UT = 158 EV

McCain wins states that are currently close that have been been red the past 2 elections:

MO, WV, IN, NC, NV, VA = 60 EV

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McCain re-steals OH and barely wins NH = 24 EV

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McCain now has 242 EV and needs 28 EV.

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McCain pours money and time into MN and WI, makes "amazing comebacks" = 20 EV.

McCain steals CO (MSM proclaims "Bradley effect") = 9 EV.

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Like I said, I don't think it's likely. But this, to me, is his only path to 'victory'.

So the states in which we need to be especially cautious, vigilant and active are:

OH, NH, MN, WI and CO.

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And an upset in any of the following states will probably seal Obama's win:

MO, WV, IN, NC, NV, VA

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NGU.

[Cosmic Charlie]

1. you could have made 5 calls to people for Obama in the time you typed this nonsense

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. I'll get right on those phones. Hope nobody minds being woken up at 2 a.m.

Welcome to DU.

[mythyc]

3. that's a wrong & unnecessary preply. If you paid attention to all the good that FlyingSquirrel does

you'd show some respect.

even not knowing that, why be so derisive? such behavior is more useless than you're claiming the OP to be, and for no good reason.

...

personally, I think the post is very significant, providing perspective on an issue that the public better be vigilant about November 4th.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. thanks mythyc.. I should have included FL too, of course

because we can't afford to be complacent there no matter how good things are looking, especially with the lead changing so late in the game. And there's a chance, however unlikely, that he could surprise us in NM and WA (which is looking uncharacteristically weak for us, probably because of the Governor's race.)

I really just want to be earlier this time - in 2004 I didn't finally see where things were headed till basically a couple days before the election and by that time it was probably too late. Not that anybody important in the campaign is really listening to me but ya never know. I really wish Kerry hadn't wasted his time and money in FL last time. And people in those states can also make a difference even if they aren't officially connected to the campaign.

[Catsbrains]

4. Wow...what a rude response. nt.

[terrya]

5. This is rude and insulting.

And you'd better change your dismissive attitude quickly if you don't think this can't happen. The Republicans are perfectly capable of stealing elections. This has happened before...or do you NOT remember 2000?

[remember2000forever]

6. I Remember 2000!

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. :-D great screen name!

Happy DU anniversary - 1 year tomorrow!